I · Model overlays
Where our number beats the board.
No qualified model overlay on today's slate — the market is efficient. That's a real answer. The orthogonal signals below are where the value lives.
II · Live signals
Orthogonal value the model can't see.
No orthogonal value signals firing today.
III · Pace shapes
How each race sets up.
Honest pace across the slate.
How to read this. A play is flagged only when our market-anchored estimate beats the crowd in the mid-price band where value historically lives — never on chalk (an anti-signal) and never on a lone longshot. Scored vs the morning line as a closing-line-value proxy; live CLV arrives with the odds feed. Independent & honest: we have no incentive to manufacture action.