1All to Win▲A. Thomas · R. CrichtonThomas · CrichtonA89 76 82▲▲+8@trip 895-2Fair 5-117%
▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best89 76 82@trip 89A▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 85Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 89 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 89 76 82
▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 85Last out was 2nd, a head behind the winner, in an 8-horse optional claiming race at GP. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 7d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/26 GP 1m D OC 25k n1x 2nd/8 by hd 89 11-1 b L Track;bid;led;caught 9/11 GP 1 1/16 D sAlw52000n1x 4th/6 -5½L 76 2.1-1 b L Stalk;3p;no threat 8/15 GP 7f D sAlw65000n1x 2nd/8 -4L 82 4.4-1 b L Ang 5wd; responded 2Zeus's Echo▲E. Gonzalez · S. Joseph Jr.Gonzalez · Joseph Jr.A95 88 75▲▲+125-1Fair 5-116%
▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best95 88 75A▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 852Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Last 3 figs 95 88 75
▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 85Also today · Jockey R3: Day To Day 2-1 · Trainer this race: Al Loud 2-1, R3: Pure Eloquence 5-2, R3: Little Georgie 20-1, R3: Day To Day 2-160D LAYOFFSaffie A Jr Joseph takes over the training from Christopher Davis. Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 7)WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 7d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/13 DMR 1 1/16 T OC 80k n1x 3rd/6 by hd 95 5.9-1 L Ins;overtaken;lost2nd 7/19 DMR 1m T OC 80k n1x 3rd/7 -1L 88 8.0-1 b L Speed; yielded upper 6/5 CD 1m T OC 125k n1x 7th/9 -2L 75 4.7-1 b L 3-4w;urging 1/4;faded 3Radical Rhetoric▼LSD. Herrera · M. LermanHerrera · LermanB76 89 77▼-6@trip 8920-1Fair 20-15%
▼ Down -676 89 77@trip 89B▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (76 vs 89)LSCard model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 89 77
▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (76 vs 89)LSLongshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 5% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.
An 89 top number against a 85 par, so it fits the level. Was 7th of 8 at the first call last time.
PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 53d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/26 GP 1m D OC 25k n1x 5th/8 -4¼L 76 16-1 Slow early; pass weake 5/24 GP 1m D MSW Won/6 89 2.0-1 4 wide move; driving 4/19 GP 1m D MSW 2nd/9 -8L 77 6.3-1 3p;improve;no match 4Junction Road▼R. Hughes · R. CrichtonHughes · CrichtonB83 79 79▲+3≡8-1Fair 10-19%
▲ Up +383 79 79 ≡B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesCard model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +3 · ≡ Steady figures 79–83 · Last 3 figs 83 79 79
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE★ FASTEST WORKJockey switch: Miguel Angel Vasquez last out, Rasheed Hughes today. Beaten 2 lengths for 2nd in a 6-horse optional claiming race at GP.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Shut off start; rallied), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 26d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/11 GP 1 1/16 D OC 25k n1x 2nd/6 -2L 83 4.9-1 b L Shut off start;rallied 9/13 GP 1 1/16 D OC 25k n1x 4th/6 -4¼L 79 5.9-1 b L Ang 6wd 1/4; mild bid 8/17 GP 1 1/16 T OC 25k n1x 6th/7 -7½L 79 5.4-1 b L 2w; no rally 5Irish AdieuM. Vasquez · R. DibonaVasquez · DibonaB80 85 81▼-5@trip 803-1Fair 7-223%
▼ Down -580 85 81@trip 80B1Card model 23% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 85 81
A 90 in its last five clears the 85 par for this level. Finished 2nd last time in a 6-horse optional claiming race at GP.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 7)WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 6d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/9 GP 1m D OC 75k n1x 2nd/6 80 2.7-1 b L Stalk;2p;duel;caught 9/7 KD 6½f T Alw n1x 6th/12 -3½L 85 15-1 b L Ins trip;imprvd str 8/22 GP 5f T MSW Won/5 81 0.4-1 b L Pace;headed;drew clear 6Khon HanL. Reyes · B. LopezReyes · LopezC72 84 78▼▼-1110-1Fair 7-112%
▼▼ Big drop -1172 84 78C3Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Last 3 figs 72 84 78
60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSReturns from a 117-day break, the biggest in the field. Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 6d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 7/5 GP 7½f T OC 75k n1x 7th/7 -5L 72 4.9-1 b L Always outrun 6/6 GP 1 1/16 D NtSrprsngB100k 3rd/9 -4L 84 6.3-1 b Loomed 5w; flattened 4/18 OP 1⅛m D BthHseRowB200k 8th/8 -7¼L 78 3.6-1 b Slow st;rail;retreated 7Al Loud▲M. Husbands · S. Joseph Jr.Husbands · Joseph Jr.A93 74 70▲▲+21@trip 742-1Fair 9-218%
▲▲ Big jump +21 · career best93 74 70@trip 74A▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 85Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #7 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +21 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 74 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 93 74 70
▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 85Also today · Jockey R3: Pure Eloquence 5-2 · Trainer this race: Zeus's Echo 5-1, R3: Pure Eloquence 5-2, R3: Little Georgie 20-1, R3: Day To Day 2-160D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LASTClass relief: maiden special weight last time, allowance optional claiming today. Goes a mile after running 6 furlongs last time.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 3)WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 5d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 7/19 GP 6f D MSW Won/6 93 1.7-1 b L Ins spd;held well;drvg 4/18 GP 1m D MSW 7th/11 -8L 74 18-1 L 3-4p turn; no rally 2/28 GP 6f D MSW 8th/10 -12L 70 11-1 L No factor; 2wd
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
EQK · RACE 1
UPCOMINGOptional Claiming $25,000
Claiming $25,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #5 Irish Adieu (early speed, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 80 · 85 · 81. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #2 Zeus's Echo at 5-1. Use #6 Khon Han in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #7 AL LOUD (2-1) — our number has it ranked #7.
- #7 AL LOUD — our #7 number, about right at the windows (23.8% to their 25.9%).
- #1 ALL TO WIN — our #5 number, about right at the windows (21.6% to their 22.2%).
- #5 IRISH ADIEU — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (19.8% to their 19.4%).
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #6 KHON HAN (10-1) — our fair 8.2% is above the morning line's 7.1%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #7 Al Loud; pressure from #2 Zeus's Echo, #5 Irish Adieu; the shape helps #3 Radical Rhetoric; and works against #2 Zeus's Echo, #5 Irish Adieu, #7 Al Loud.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
RACE 9 FROM GULFSTREAM PARK
LEG A OF THE COAST TO COAST PICK 5
BET OPTIONS
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