R2 EQZ · Optional Claiming $50,000

7:15 PM ET · 6 1/2 Furlongs Turf · $67,000 · 7 runners7:15 PM · 6½f Turf · 7 runners

Upcoming $67K · Optional Claiming $50,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Street SwindlerA. Lezcano · M. GlattLezcano · GlattA85 79 80▲+65-2Fair 9-218%▲ Up +6 · career best85 79 80A
Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · Last 3 figs 85 79 80
Jockey Abel Lezcano 33% career · Trainer Mark Glatt 34% career ★ hot
Also today · Jockey R1: Triple Diamonds 6-1, R3: Klaebo 30-1 · Trainer R1: Triple Diamonds 6-1, R3: Klaebo 30-1
WON LAST
Winner of an 8-horse maiden special weight race at SA last time. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 5d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/2 SA 6f T MSW Won/8 85 10-1 L Ins;bid2w1/4;clear1/16
9/5 DMR 6f D MSW 4th/7 -2L 79 9.2-1 L Vie ins;chs ins;flattn
8/6 DMR 6½f D MSW 6th/9 -4½L 80 9.3-1 L Chased ins-2wd;flatten

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	SA	6f T	MSW	Won/8	85	10-1	L	Ins;bid2w1/4;clear1/16
9/5	DMR	6f D	MSW	4th/7 -2L	79	9.2-1	L	Vie ins;chs ins;flattn
8/6	DMR	6½f D	MSW	6th/9 -4½L	80	9.3-1	L	Chased ins-2wd;flatten

2ImaboutagoA. Ayuso · L. PowellAyuso · PowellB80 76 89►6-1Fair 6-115%► Steady80 76 89B1

Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 80 76 89

Jockey Armando Ayuso 31% career · Trainer Leonard Powell 30% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Opus Uno 8-1, R3: Virevolte 15-1

A 92 in its last five clears the 87 par for this level. Was 5th of 5 at the first call last time.

PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 8 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	SA	6f T	OC 50k n1x	5th/5 -3L	80	5.3-1	L	2-3wd;tip out;evenly
7/25	DMR	5f T	DasycutrH Stk	8th/8 -6¾L	76	22-1		2wide; weakened
6/14	SA	6f T	OC 80k n2x	4th/7 -4¼L	89	4.6-1	L	2-3wide; no response

3Delightful Laura▲H. Berrios · P. EurtonBerrios · EurtonA95 84 86▲▲+117-5Fair 3-124%▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best95 84 86A▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 87

Card model 24% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · Last 3 figs 95 84 86

▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 87

Jockey Hector Isaac Berrios 34% career · Trainer Peter Eurton 35% career ★ hot

Shortens up to 6½ furlongs after going a mile. Tops the field on speed figures, a 95 against 93 for the next best.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 1)

WORKS SHARP 5f in :59.60 on Sep 12 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	SA	1m T	OC 50k n1x	5th/7	95	1.8-1	L	Ins;yielded grudgingly
2/21	SA	1m T	OC 50k n1x	4th/10 by hd	84	4.4-1	L	Pull outsd;led;flatten
12/28	SA	1m T	OC 50k n1x	2nd/12	86	9.5-1	L	Keen;clear to 1/16

4My Girl MiaLSK. Frey · D. O'NeillFrey · O'NeillB77 84 93▼▼-815-1Fair 15-16%▼▼ Big drop -877 84 93BLS
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Last 3 figs 77 84 93
LS
Longshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Kyle Frey 28% career · Trainer Doug O'Neill 34% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Throwthefirstpunch 20-1, R3: Bliksem 6-1 · Trainer R1: Throwthefirstpunch 20-1
A step up in company: optional claiming before, allowance optional claiming today. Figures have slipped: 93, 84, 77 over its last three.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 5)
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 22 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/18 SA 6f T OC 50k 2nd/5 77 0.6-1 L Clear to 1/16; nailed
9/7 DMR 5f T OC 50k 5th/9 -3½L 84 4.1-1 L Inside; willingly
8/22 DMR 6f D Clm 12k n2l Won/12 93 3.0-1 L Ins;clear3/8;widened

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/18	SA	6f T	OC 50k	2nd/5	77	0.6-1	L	Clear to 1/16; nailed
9/7	DMR	5f T	OC 50k	5th/9 -3½L	84	4.1-1	L	Inside; willingly
8/22	DMR	6f D	Clm 12k n2l	Won/12	93	3.0-1	L	Ins;clear3/8;widened

5Miss Meagher▲E. Garcia · D. BakerGarcia · BakerA93 84 81▲▲+11@trip 856-1Fair 6-115%▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best93 84 81@trip 85A▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 872

Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 85 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 93 84 81

▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 87

Jockey Epifanio Garcia 33% career · Trainer D Wayne Baker 27% career

CLASS UP★ FASTEST WORK

Has moved up each time out, 81 to 84 to 93. Cuts back from a mile to 6½ furlongs.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 12d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	SA	1m T	OC 50k n1x	7th/7 -1½L	93	23-1	L	2wd;bid3deep upper
9/3	DMR	1m T	Clm 32k c	2nd/10 by hd	84	11-1	L	2w;3w;led str;outkickd
8/2	DMR	1m T	Clm 25k c	2nd/10 -2¼L	81	5.3-1	L	Ins;rally btwn;up 2nd

6Subatomic Law▼R. Gonzalez · N. DrysdaleGonzalez · DrysdaleB82 81@trip 825-1Fair 7-112%—82 81@trip 82B▼ Best fig 82 is 5+ under today's par 87
Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 82 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 81
▼ Best fig 82 is 5+ under today's par 87
Jockey Ricardo Gonzalez 33% career · Trainer Neil Drysdale 22% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Prime Artist 3-1, R3: Absolution 4-1
180D+ LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST
Back after 189 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Comes in off a victory in a 7-horse maiden special weight race at SA.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 5)
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 9d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
4/24 SA 6½f T MSW Won/7 82 16-1 L Rail speed; responded
4/4 SA 6½f T MSW 6th/11 -2½L 81 55-1 L Steadied btw turn;ins

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
4/24	SA	6½f T	MSW	Won/7	82	16-1	L	Rail speed; responded
4/4	SA	6½f T	MSW	6th/11 -2½L	81	55-1	L	Steadied btw turn;ins

7Lino's AngelT. Baze · E. AlvarezBaze · AlvarezC80 71 84▲+3@trip 8020-1Fair 12-18%▲ Up +380 71 84@trip 80C3

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #3 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +3 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 71 84

Jockey T C Baze 27% career · Trainer Edwin G Alvarez 25% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Henry Adams 5-1

LASIX 1ST

Purse drops from $100,000 to $67,000 against its last start. Picks up 4 pounds from its last start.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Aug 26 (5F in 1:01.20), 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	SA	6½f T	fsCADistafHB100k	5th/7 -2L	80	63-1	b	Ins;bmpd3/8;no rally
9/3	DMR	1m D	fsOC20000n1x	5th/9 -11L	71	8.4-1	b L	4wd;3-2-4wd;no rally
8/6	DMR	1m D	fsOC20000n1x	3rd/7 -½L	84	18-1	b L	Duel outside; yielded

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

EQZ · RACE 2

UPCOMING

Optional Claiming $50,000

Field

7 runners

Purse

$67,000

Post

7:15 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#2 · 15%

Claiming $50,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #2 Imaboutago (a closer, M/L 6-1). Recent figures: 80 · 76 · 89. Backup is #5 Miss Meagher at 6-1. Use #7 Lino's Angel in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #3 DELIGHTFUL LAURA (7-5) — our number has it ranked #6.
#3 DELIGHTFUL LAURA — our #6 number, about right at the windows (29.2% to their 32.9%).
#1 STREET SWINDLER — our #4 number, about right at the windows (22.2% to their 22.6%).
#2 IMABOUTAGO — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (13.1% to their 11.3%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #7 LINO'S ANGEL (20-1) — our fair 4.9% is above the morning line's 3.8%; supported by: 3-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #6 Subatomic Law; pressure from #3 Delightful Laura, #4 My Girl Mia; the shape helps #2 Imaboutago; and works against #3 Delightful Laura, #4 My Girl Mia, #6 Subatomic Law.

Lead

6Subatomic Law973Delightful Laura914My Girl Mia91

Press

1Street Swindler91

Stalk

7Lino's Angel945Miss Meagher86

2Imaboutago79

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Subatomic Law

Lino's Angel

Street Swindler

Delightful Laura

My Girl Mia

Miss Meagher

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Imaboutago

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