● Live race intelligence · code KDF

Kentucky Derby Future Wager

Wednesday, October 28, 2026.

Races
1
on the card
Feature
R1
Grade 1 Stakes · $5,000,000 purse · $5000K
First post
7:00 PM
ET · race 1
Top model win %
6%
#17 Hughes

● Track conditions today

Kentucky Derby Future Wager — today's signals

Surface read

No read

Not enough variant history for this track to gauge how much the surface moves day to day.

Weather

Unavailable

No forecast for this track right now — surface read defaults to the listed condition.

Carryover pool

None today

No mandatory or jackpot carryover detected at this track. Standard pools today.

Do the model's percentages hold up?

Mostly

Across finished races the model's win chances mostly match how often its picks win, but its most confident picks win a few points less than it says. The morning-line favourite still wins more often than the model's top pick.

checked against 2,848 finished races · as of 2026-06-06

Where the model is most sure

Three highest model win %.

The three races where the model's top pick has its highest win chance, with the morning line beside it. Most of these are the favourite too. Tap for the full race.

R1 · 1 1/4 Miles Dirt

#17 Hughes

No Rider · Baffert Bob

Model win %
6%
Vs favourite
Differs
M/L
10-1

Top connections on the card

Trainers + jockeys to watch.

Trainer leaderboard

  1. Baffert Bob1 top picks
  2. McGaughey Claude Iii1 top picks

Jockey leaderboard

  1. No Rider2 top picks

Today's races

Race-by-race with archetype.

Each race is tagged with pace archetype (TACTICAL · SPEED DUEL · LONE SPEED · CLOSERS' RACE · PACE VACUUM · PRESSED PACE). Click any row for the full Verdict, Pace Shape, Full Field, Workouts, and Wagers.

For information only — not financial or wagering advice. Must be 21+ to wager where required by law. If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, help is available.