KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER · RACE 1
UPCOMINGGrade 1 Stakes · $5,000,000 purse
Stakes, for 2-year-olds.
Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.
The shape is the story here: 17 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #17 Hughes (a presser/stalker, M/L 10-1). Recent figures: 108 · 100 · 100. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #37 U. S. S. Valor at 8-1. Use #16 How's Al Today in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 108, with 106 next best. 3rd of 80 at 4F on Oct 25, in :47.20.
Has moved up each time out, 88 to 105 to 106. Fastest 4F work of its morning on Aug 19 (:48.00), a sign it is training forwardly.
Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Won last out in a 12-horse race at KD.
Comes in off a victory in a 7-horse maiden special weight race at BEL. Goes 1 1/4 miles after running a mile last time.
Turns back in 3 days. Goes 1 1/4 miles after running 1 1/16 miles last time.
Rider No takes over from Flavien Prat in the saddle. Has run 98 against a 90 par for the class.
A 99 in its last five clears the 90 par for this level. Purse goes from $650,000 to $5,000,000, a step up.
Figures are climbing: 78, 92, 96 over its last three. The Oct 25 work, 4F in :47.00, was the best time at that distance that morning.
Figure of 95 on the record sits above the 90 par. Beaten ½ length for 3rd in a 6-horse race at BEL.
Purse goes from $300,000 to $5,000,000, a step up. Led at the first call last time.
Posted the fastest 3F work of the morning on Sep 12, in :36.00. Worked 4F in :47.00 on Sep 18, 3rd of 47 at the distance.
Worked 5F in :59.60 on Aug 29, 2nd of 13 at the distance. Won last out in a 6-horse race at SAR.
Runs for $5,000,000 after a $500,000 race last out. Picks up 4 pounds from its last start.
Worked 3F in :35.80 on Oct 21, 3rd of 8 at the distance. Figure of 95 on the record sits above the 90 par.
Fastest 5F work of its morning on Sep 22 (1:01.00), a sign it is training forwardly. 2nd of 13 at 3F on Sep 30, in :36.20.
Rider No takes over from Flavien Prat in the saddle. A longer trip: 1 1/16 miles last out, 1 1/4 miles today.
Quick turnaround, just 3 days since the last start. Goes 1 1/4 miles after running a mile last time.
Gets a new rider, Rider No replacing Ricardo Jr Santana. Has run 97 against a 90 par for the class.
Runs for $5,000,000 after a $300,000 race last out. Carries 126 pounds, 4 more than last time.
Goes 1 1/4 miles after running 1 1/16 miles last time. A step up in company: optional claiming before, stakes gr1 today.
Has moved up each time out, 80 to 87 to 94. Runs for $5,000,000 after a $200,000 race last out.
Has moved up each time out, 67 to 69 to 89. Goes 1 1/4 miles after running 1 1/16 miles last time.
Purse goes from $200,000 to $5,000,000, a step up. A longer trip: 1 1/16 miles last out, 1 1/4 miles today.
Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 96). 3rd of 91 at 4F on Aug 9, in :47.00.
Figure of 96 on the record sits above the 90 par. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 96).
The Aug 21 work, 5F in :59.20, was the best time at that distance that morning. Winner of a 10-horse maiden special weight race at CD last time.
Last start was a win, in a 6-horse race at KEE at 5-1. Runs for $5,000,000 after a $650,000 race last out.
Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 87). Carries 126 pounds, 7 more than last time.
Picks up 4 pounds from its last start. 3rd of 27 at 5F on Sep 19, in :59.60.
Turns back in 7 days. Last start was a win, in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at KEE at 6.4-1.
Stretches out from 6 furlongs to 1 1/4 miles. Won last out in a 12-horse maiden special weight race at SAR.
Jockey switch: Edgar Morales last out, Rider No today. Winner of a 5-horse race at KEE last time.
Turns back in 4 days. Led at the first call last time.
Picks up 7 pounds from its last start. Goes 1 1/4 miles after running 6 furlongs last time.
Comes in off a victory in an 11-horse maiden special weight race at KEE. Carries 126 pounds, 7 more than last time.
A 67-day gap since its last race. Dropped in well back early last out, 8th of 9 at the first call.
Debut for this Unknown Sire filly, whose dam is Unknown Dam.
Unraced, so the works and the connections are the whole story.
First career start, so there is no race form to read.
Unraced so far; the pedigree is Unknown Sire out of Unknown Dam.
Debut for a trainer who is 33% with first-timers, over 228 starts. Makes his first start with no form to go on, only the Flightline and Lucrezia breeding.
First career start, by Curlin out of Always On My Mind. First-time starter from a barn that wins 15% of the time with them (243 tried).
At a glance
- Market favourite #40 ALL OTHER 3YO MALES (6-5) — our number has it ranked #39.
- #40 ALL OTHER 3YO MALES — our #39 number, about right at the windows (24.5% to their 26.4%).
- #40 ALL OTHER THREE YEAR OLD MALES — our #40 number, about right at the windows (24.5% to their 26.4%).
- #37 U. S. S. VALOR — our #2 number, a price play — we're at 6.2%, the board 6.5%.
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #16 HOW'S AL TODAY (99-1) — our fair 0.9% is above the morning line's 0.6%; supported by: 27-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #6 Conviction; pressure from #19 Inshallah, #35 The Good Life; the shape helps #10 Endrush, #25 Nevada, #31 Showa; and works against #2 Card Man, #3 Caribbean Life, #4 Club Reign.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
WIN/EXACTA WAGERING ONLY - $2 MINIMUM
BET OPTIONS
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