Kentucky Derby Future Wager

Friday, October 30, 2026 · 1 races · Card model

  1. R17:00 PMGrade 1 Stakes · $5,000,000 purse1 1/4m Dirt · 42 runners17Hughes 10-1▲2nd37U. S. S. Valor 8-13rd16How's Al Today 99-1LS25Nevada 80-137U. S. S. Valor 8-1▲16How's Al Today 99-125Nevada 80-1▲Wide open

Our top three by win chance, with the morning line beside each horse. Confidence = our top-rated horse's win chance: Strong 35%+, Medium 25-35%, Wide open under 25%. ▲/▼ angles, ★ best figure at the trip, LS = longshot read (8-1+ on the line, model rates it higher). Tap a race number for the full field and a name for the horse's page. These are notes from the past performances, not proven to beat the odds; the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top pick. Analysis only.

● Live race intelligence · code KDF

Kentucky Derby Future Wager

Friday, October 30, 2026.

Races
1
on the card
Feature
R1
Grade 1 Stakes · $5,000,000 purse · $5000K
First post
7:00 PM
ET · race 1
Runners
42
avg field 42

● Track conditions today

Kentucky Derby Future Wager — today's signals

Surface read

No read

Not enough variant history for this track to gauge how much the surface moves day to day.

Weather

Unavailable

No forecast for this track right now — surface read defaults to the listed condition.

Carryover pool

None today

No mandatory or jackpot carryover detected at this track. Standard pools today.

Do the model's percentages hold up?

Mostly

Across finished races the model's win chances mostly match how often its picks win, but its most confident picks win a few points less than it says. The morning-line favourite still wins more often than the model's top pick.

checked against 2,848 finished races · as of 2026-06-06

Top connections on the card

Trainers + jockeys to watch.

Trainer leaderboard

  1. Bob Baffert1 top picks
  2. Claude McGaughey III1 top picks

Jockey leaderboard

  1. Rider No2 top picks
For information only — not financial or wagering advice. Must be 21+ to wager where required by law. If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, help is available.