R1 Kentucky Derby Future Wager · Grade 1 Stakes · $5,000,000 purse

7:00 PM ET · 1 1/4 Miles Dirt · $5,000,000 · 42 runners7:00 PM · 1 1/4m Dirt · 42 runners

Upcoming $5000K · Grade 1 Stakes · $5,000,000 purse

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1American History▲R. No · T. PletcherNo · PletcherC93 8320-1Fair 50-12%—93 83C▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 90
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #27 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 93 83
▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 90
Jockey Rider No · Trainer Todd A Pletcher 37% career
Also today · Jockey this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Caribbean Life 99-1, this race: Club Reign 99-1, this race: Coach Pope 15-1 +37 more · Trainer this race: Damavand 75-1
★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST
Last start was a win, in a 6-horse race at KEE at 5-1. Runs for $5,000,000 after a $650,000 race last out.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 14 (4F in :47.00), 2 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 KEE 1 1/16 D BrdrsFut G1 Won/6 by 3½ 93 5.0-1 Off slow;4p;left ld;up
8/22 SAR 6½f D MSW Won/9 83 9.6-1 5p trn;4p1/4;rally;clr
2Card ManR. No · C. BrownNo · BrownC78 94 92▼▼-1599-1Fair 99-11%▼▼ Big drop -1578 94 92C
Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #23 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -15 · Last 3 figs 78 94 92
Jockey Rider No · Trainer Chad C Brown 37% career
Also today · Jockey this race: American History 20-1, this race: Caribbean Life 99-1, this race: Club Reign 99-1, this race: Coach Pope 15-1 +37 more · Trainer this race: Gaudreau 40-1, this race: Nevada 80-1, this race: Tap Our Way 99-1
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
Purse goes from $200,000 to $5,000,000, a step up. A longer trip: 1 1/16 miles last out, 1 1/4 miles today.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 8)
WORKS Routine prep: 3 works in 30d, last 13d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/25 CD 1 1/16 D StretSns G3 5th/7 -5L 78 1.8-1 Ins;vied ins pair;fade
9/18 BEL 1m D MSW Won/10 94 0.6-1 2w 1/4p; edged clear
8/15 SAR 6f D MSW 2nd/8 -2L 92 3.7-1 Ins-2p;4p1/4;willingly

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	KEE	1 1/16 D	BrdrsFut G1	Won/6 by 3½	93	5.0-1		Off slow;4p;left ld;up
8/22	SAR	6½f D	MSW	Won/9	83	9.6-1		5p trn;4p1/4;rally;clr

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/25	CD	1 1/16 D	StretSns G3	5th/7 -5L	78	1.8-1	Ins;vied ins pair;fade
9/18	BEL	1m D	MSW	Won/10	94	0.6-1	2w 1/4p; edged clear
8/15	SAR	6f D	MSW	2nd/8 -2L	92	3.7-1	Ins-2p;4p1/4;willingly

3Caribbean LifeR. No · W. WaldenNo · WaldenC86 92 87▼-499-1Fair 99-11%▼ Down -486 92 87C

Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #20 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -4 · Last 3 figs 86 92 87

Jockey Rider No · Trainer William Walden 34% career

Also today · Jockey this race: American History 20-1, this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Club Reign 99-1, this race: Coach Pope 15-1 +37 more

Goes 1 1/4 miles after running 1 1/16 miles last time. A step up in company: optional claiming before, stakes gr1 today.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 5)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 21 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	KEE	1 1/16 D	OC 100k n1x	2nd/6 by hd	86	0.4-1	b	Press 2w;bid;outkck1/8
9/12	CD	1m D	Iroquois G3	3rd/7 -3L	92	2.4-1	b	Floatd in;7p upr;wllng
8/8	ELP	7f D	MSW	Won/9	87	1.9-1	b	Vied 2w;btw 1/4;cleard

4Club Reign▲R. No · D. BeckmanNo · BeckmanC95 8799-1Fair 50-12%—95 87C▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 90
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 95 87
▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 90
Jockey Rider No · Trainer D Whitworth Beckman 29% career
Also today · Jockey this race: American History 20-1, this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Caribbean Life 99-1, this race: Coach Pope 15-1 +37 more
Figure of 95 on the record sits above the 90 par. Beaten ½ length for 3rd in a 6-horse race at BEL.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 33d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 BEL 1m D Champagn G1 3rd/6 -½L 95 13-1 4-3w off duel; wkn lte
8/29 SAR 6f D MSW Won/7 87 8.4-1 Pressed 4-3w; drew clr
5Coach Pope▲R. No · K. McPeekNo · McPeekB92 99 89►15-1Fair 30-14%► Steady92 99 89B▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 90
Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 92 99 89
▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 90
Jockey Rider No · Trainer Kenneth G McPeek
Also today · Jockey this race: American History 20-1, this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Caribbean Life 99-1, this race: Club Reign 99-1 +37 more · Trainer this race: Fleetfoot Mac 99-1, this race: Mystik Bayou 75-1, this race: Twinkle Town 50-1
A 99 in its last five clears the 90 par for this level. Purse goes from $650,000 to $5,000,000, a step up.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
WORKS SHARP 5f in :58.00 on Sep 4 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 KEE 1 1/16 D BrdrsFut G1 2nd/6 92 0.7-1 2w;long duel;brsh;cght
9/12 CD 1m D MSW Won/12 99 0.4-1 Took over;cruised away
8/8 SAR 6½f D MSW 2nd/8 -1½L 89 13-1 Ins;ask3p1/4;chsd;gain
6Conviction▲▲R. No · S. Joseph Jr.No · Joseph Jr.C90 8680-1Fair 99-1<1%—90 86C▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 90▲ Lone speed on early pace
Card model <1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #33 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 90 86
▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 90▲ Lone speed on early pace
Jockey Rider No · Trainer Saffie A Jr Joseph
Also today · Jockey this race: American History 20-1, this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Caribbean Life 99-1, this race: Club Reign 99-1 +37 more
★ FASTEST WORK
Turns back in 6 days. Led at the first call last time.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:01.00 on Oct 16 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/24 KEE 6f D BowmnMllB250k 2nd/5 90 2.8-1 Ins foe;long duel;nail
8/22 GP 5f D sMdSpWt Won/7 86 0.5-1 Rushed;battled;held on
7DamavandR. No · T. PletcherNo · PletcherC87 7875-1Fair 99-1<1%—87 78C
Card model <1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #35 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 87 78
Jockey Rider No · Trainer Todd A Pletcher 37% career
Also today · Jockey this race: American History 20-1, this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Caribbean Life 99-1, this race: Club Reign 99-1 +37 more · Trainer this race: American History 20-1
★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST
Comes in off a victory in an 11-horse maiden special weight race at KEE. Carries 126 pounds, 7 more than last time.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.
WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.00 on Oct 14 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 KEE 1 1/16 D MSW Won/11 by hd 87 2.7-1 Bmp;3w3/4;bid 2nd;duel
9/7 SAR 6f D MSW 4th/12 -8L 78 3.4-1 4w pursuit; improved
8Dargham▲R. No · L. RiceNo · RiceC9499-1Fair 99-1<1%—94C▲ Last fig 94 at/above par 90
Card model <1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #31 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 94
▲ Last fig 94 at/above par 90
Jockey Rider No · Trainer Linda Rice 37% career
Also today · Jockey this race: American History 20-1, this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Caribbean Life 99-1, this race: Club Reign 99-1 +37 more
WON LAST
Stretches out from 6 furlongs to 1 1/4 miles. Won last out in a 12-horse maiden special weight race at SAR.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)
SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: In hand 3-2w; edged cl.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 41d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/7 SAR 6f D MSW Won/12 94 2.5-1 In hand 3-2w; edged cl
9Earth Song▲R. No · J. DelgadoNo · DelgadoC94 8360-1Fair 50-12%—94 83C▲ Last fig 94 at/above par 90
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #13 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 94 83
▲ Last fig 94 at/above par 90
Jockey Rider No · Trainer Jorge Delgado 37% career
Also today · Jockey this race: American History 20-1, this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Caribbean Life 99-1, this race: Club Reign 99-1 +37 more
◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE
Runs for $5,000,000 after a $500,000 race last out. Picks up 4 pounds from its last start.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 5)
TROUBLED TRIP Bumped 2x 1/4; wkn lte last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 14 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 BEL 1m D Champagn G1 4th/6 -4L 94 24-1 Bumped 2x 1/4; wkn lte
9/7 MTH 6f D MSW Won/3 83 0.9-1 Step slow; drew off
10EndrushR. No · E. KenneallyNo · KenneallyC8980-1Fair 99-11%—89C
Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #26 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 89
Jockey Rider No · Trainer Eddie Kenneally 35% career
Also today · Jockey this race: American History 20-1, this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Caribbean Life 99-1, this race: Club Reign 99-1 +37 more
WON LAST
The Aug 21 work, 5F in :59.20, was the best time at that distance that morning. Winner of a 10-horse maiden special weight race at CD last time.
PACE HELPS Several horses want the lead, which is the early heat a closer is looking for.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Aug 21 (5F in :59.20), 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/10 CD 6f D MSW Won/10 by 2½ 89 0.8-1 Lackd room 3/8;rallied
11Fleetfoot MacR. No · K. McPeekNo · McPeekC8799-1Fair 99-1<1%—87C
Card model <1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #28 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 87
Jockey Rider No · Trainer Kenneth G McPeek
Also today · Jockey this race: American History 20-1, this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Caribbean Life 99-1, this race: Club Reign 99-1 +37 more · Trainer this race: Coach Pope 15-1, this race: Mystik Bayou 75-1, this race: Twinkle Town 50-1
WON LAST
Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 87). Carries 126 pounds, 7 more than last time.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 6d ago)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/11 KEE 6½f D MSW Won/8 87 1.6-1 Ins foe;shk clear upr
12Fools Rush in▲R. No · B. CoxNo · CoxC93 8280-1Fair 99-11%—93 82C▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 90
Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #17 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 93 82
▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 90
Jockey Rider No · Trainer Brad H Cox 42% career
Also today · Jockey this race: American History 20-1, this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Caribbean Life 99-1, this race: Club Reign 99-1 +37 more · Trainer this race: Lord Mischief 75-1, this race: Q B Rocket 50-1, this race: The Good Life 50-1
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST
Quick turnaround, just 5 days since the last start. Goes 1 1/4 miles after running a mile last time.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: 2wbtw; led 3/8; drew off.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Sep 1; 3 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/25 CD 1m D MSW Won/12 93 1.1-1 2wbtw;led 3/8;drew off
9/10 CD 6f D MSW 3rd/10 -6L 82 3.6-1 Gaining late 6 wide
13Gaudreau▲R. No · C. BrownNo · BrownA98 9040-1Fair 50-12%—98 90A▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 90
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 98 90
▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 90
Jockey Rider No · Trainer Chad C Brown 37% career
Also today · Jockey this race: American History 20-1, this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Caribbean Life 99-1, this race: Club Reign 99-1 +37 more · Trainer this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Nevada 80-1, this race: Tap Our Way 99-1
Rider No takes over from Flavien Prat in the saddle. Has run 98 against a 90 par for the class.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 7d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 BEL 1m D Champagn G1 2nd/6 -½L 98 2.8-1 Dueled 3-2w; ran on
8/8 SAR 6½f D MSW Won/8 90 2.4-1 Out;3-2p;lead3/16;held

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	BEL	1m D	Champagn G1	3rd/6 -½L	95	13-1		4-3w off duel; wkn lte
8/29	SAR	6f D	MSW	Won/7	87	8.4-1		Pressed 4-3w; drew clr

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/3	KEE	1 1/16 D	BrdrsFut G1	2nd/6	92	0.7-1	2w;long duel;brsh;cght
9/12	CD	1m D	MSW	Won/12	99	0.4-1	Took over;cruised away
8/8	SAR	6½f D	MSW	2nd/8 -1½L	89	13-1	Ins;ask3p1/4;chsd;gain

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	KEE	6f D	BowmnMllB250k	2nd/5	90	2.8-1		Ins foe;long duel;nail
8/22	GP	5f D	sMdSpWt	Won/7	86	0.5-1		Rushed;battled;held on

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	KEE	1 1/16 D	MSW	Won/11 by hd	87	2.7-1		Bmp;3w3/4;bid 2nd;duel
9/7	SAR	6f D	MSW	4th/12 -8L	78	3.4-1		4w pursuit; improved

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/7	SAR	6f D	MSW	Won/12	94	2.5-1		In hand 3-2w; edged cl

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	BEL	1m D	Champagn G1	4th/6 -4L	94	24-1		Bumped 2x 1/4; wkn lte
9/7	MTH	6f D	MSW	Won/3	83	0.9-1		Step slow; drew off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/10	CD	6f D	MSW	Won/10 by 2½	89	0.8-1		Lackd room 3/8;rallied

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	KEE	6½f D	MSW	Won/8	87	1.6-1		Ins foe;shk clear upr

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/25	CD	1m D	MSW	Won/12	93	1.1-1		2wbtw;led 3/8;drew off
9/10	CD	6f D	MSW	3rd/10 -6L	82	3.6-1		Gaining late 6 wide

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	BEL	1m D	Champagn G1	2nd/6 -½L	98	2.8-1		Dueled 3-2w; ran on
8/8	SAR	6½f D	MSW	Won/8	90	2.4-1		Out;3-2p;lead3/16;held

14He Is No Lie▲R. No · D. O'NeillNo · O'NeillC95 78 92▲▲+1060-1Fair 50-12%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best95 78 92C▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 90

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #14 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Last 3 figs 95 78 92

▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 90

Jockey Rider No · Trainer Doug O'Neill 34% career

Also today · Jockey this race: American History 20-1, this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Caribbean Life 99-1, this race: Club Reign 99-1 +37 more

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Worked 3F in :35.80 on Oct 21, 3rd of 8 at the distance. Figure of 95 on the record sits above the 90 par.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 9d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/12	CD	1m D	Iroquois G3	2nd/7 -½L	95	4.7-1	2w;btw;duel;grudgingly
8/8	DMR	6f D	BestPal G3	4th/5 -4½L	78	2.3-1	Stumbled badly; 4wide
6/28	CD	6f D	BshfdMnr Stk	2nd/8	92	4.6-1	Dueld ins;cleard;naild

15HighwaymenR. No · C. DevauxNo · Devaux?99-1Fair 99-1<1%—Debut?
Card model <1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #42 · Tier ?
Jockey Rider No · Trainer Cherie Devaux
Also today · Jockey this race: American History 20-1, this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Caribbean Life 99-1, this race: Club Reign 99-1 +37 more
First career start, by Curlin out of Always On My Mind. First-time starter from a barn that wins 15% of the time with them (243 tried).
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.80 on Oct 5 was the best time at that distance that morning; 4 works in 30d
Last three races
First start. By Curlin out of Always on My Mind (Congrats)
Trainer C. Devaux: 1st-time starters: 15% wins, 28% in the money (243 starts) · 2-year-olds: 15% wins, 38% in the money (237 starts)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/25 KEE 4f :48.40 breezing 9/29
10/19 KEE 4f :48.20 breezing 2/12
10/13 KEE 5f 1:00.40 breezing 3/11 from gate
10/5 KEE 4f :47.80 breezing 1/16 ● bullet
9/27 ELP 4f :47.80 breezing 3/68

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/25	KEE	4f	:48.40	breezing	9/29
10/19	KEE	4f	:48.20	breezing	2/12
10/13	KEE	5f	1:00.40	breezing	3/11	from gate
10/5	KEE	4f	:47.80	breezing	1/16	● bullet
9/27	ELP	4f	:47.80	breezing	3/68

16How's Al TodayR. No · R. MottNo · MottC80 97 72▼-3↕99-1Fair 50-12%▼ Down -380 97 72 ↕C3

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #3 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -3 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 72–97 · Last 3 figs 80 97 72

Jockey Rider No · Trainer Riley Mott 34% career

Also today · Jockey this race: American History 20-1, this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Caribbean Life 99-1, this race: Club Reign 99-1 +37 more

4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST

Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Won last out in a 12-horse race at KD.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 4 works in 30d, last 6d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/9	KD	1m T	JuvMile Stk	Won/12	80	2.6-1	Trck 3w;tip out;surged
8/29	KD	6½f T	Alw b	Won/9	97	2.5-1	Angld 4-5p;full of run
8/1	SAR	6½f D	SarSpcl G2	3rd/6 -7L	72	4.4-1	3p trn;5p1/4;best rest

17Hughes▲R. No · B. BaffertNo · BaffertA108 100 100▲▲+1210-1Fair 15-16%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best108 100 100A▲ Last fig 108 at/above par 901

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Last 3 figs 108 100 100

▲ Last fig 108 at/above par 90

Jockey Rider No · Trainer Bob Baffert 43% career

Also today · Jockey this race: American History 20-1, this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Caribbean Life 99-1, this race: Club Reign 99-1 +37 more · Trainer this race: Imperial Honor 80-1, this race: Salahudin 25-1, this race: Zedan 75-1

WON LAST

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 108, with 106 next best. 3rd of 80 at 4F on Oct 25, in :47.20.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 5d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	SA	1 1/16 D	AmPharoh G1	Won/6	108	0.3-1	b	Ins;bid3-2wd;handily
9/6	DMR	7f D	DMrFut G1	Won/5	100	0.2-1	b	Outsd;3deep5/16;cleard
8/8	DMR	6f D	BestPal G3	Won/5	100	1.5-1	b	Vied ins;powered away

18Imperial Honor▲R. No · B. BaffertNo · BaffertC90 9380-1Fair 99-11%—90 93C▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 90
Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #19 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 90 93
▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 90
Jockey Rider No · Trainer Bob Baffert 43% career
Also today · Jockey this race: American History 20-1, this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Caribbean Life 99-1, this race: Club Reign 99-1 +37 more · Trainer this race: Hughes 10-1, this race: Salahudin 25-1, this race: Zedan 75-1
Runs for $5,000,000 after a $300,000 race last out. Carries 126 pounds, 4 more than last time.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 4)
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 4d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 SA 1 1/16 D AmPharoh G1 3rd/6 -10L 90 3.0-1 b 2wd;3wd;bested rest
9/7 DMR 5½f D MSW Won/10 93 1.4-1 b Ins;clear;in hand late
19Inshallah▲R. No · J. SadlerNo · SadlerC9075-1Fair 99-11%—90C▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 90
Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #24 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 90
▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 90
Jockey Rider No · Trainer John W Sadler 34% career
Also today · Jockey this race: American History 20-1, this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Caribbean Life 99-1, this race: Club Reign 99-1 +37 more
60D LAYOFFWON LAST
Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 96). 3rd of 91 at 4F on Aug 9, in :47.00.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 55d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/15 DMR 5½f D MSW Won/8 90 0.7-1 b Opened up; held safely
20Jas▲R. No · S. AsmussenNo · AsmussenC94 75 81▲▲+19↕40-1Fair 50-12%▲▲ Big jump +19 · career best94 75 81 ↕C▲ Last fig 94 at/above par 90
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +19 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 69–94 · Last 3 figs 94 75 81
▲ Last fig 94 at/above par 90
Jockey Rider No · Trainer Steven M Asmussen 36% career
Also today · Jockey this race: American History 20-1, this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Caribbean Life 99-1, this race: Club Reign 99-1 +37 more · Trainer this race: Pharocity 99-1, this race: Powerline 99-1, this race: Social Deception 99-1
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST
Turns back in 5 days. Goes 1 1/4 miles after running 1 1/16 miles last time.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 8)
WORKS Routine prep: 3 works in 30d, last 11d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/25 CD 1 1/16 D StretSns G3 Won/7 94 9.1-1 2wbtw;duel ins upr;gam
9/9 KD 1m T JuvMile Stk 2nd/12 -2½L 75 11-1 Vied btwn;no match
8/29 KD 1m T MSW Won/12 81 10-1 Well handled;held sway
21Just For Pipa▲R. No · G. FoleyNo · FoleyC91 7980-1Fair 99-1<1%—91 79C▲ Last fig 91 at/above par 90
Card model <1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #32 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 91 79
▲ Last fig 91 at/above par 90
Jockey Rider No · Trainer Greg Foley 30% career
Also today · Jockey this race: American History 20-1, this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Caribbean Life 99-1, this race: Club Reign 99-1 +37 more
WON LAST
Jockey switch: Edgar Morales last out, Rider No today. Winner of a 5-horse race at KEE last time.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.
WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 13d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/24 KEE 6f D BowmnMllB250k Won/5 by 3½ 91 5.8-1 3-4p;reeled in leaders
9/19 CD 6½f D MSW Won/9 79 19-1 Stlkd;3-w turn;all out
22Lord Mischief▲R. No · B. CoxNo · CoxC9075-1Fair 99-1<1%—90C▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 90
Card model <1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #34 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 90
▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 90
Jockey Rider No · Trainer Brad H Cox 42% career
Also today · Jockey this race: American History 20-1, this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Caribbean Life 99-1, this race: Club Reign 99-1 +37 more · Trainer this race: Fools Rush In 80-1, this race: Q B Rocket 50-1, this race: The Good Life 50-1
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST
Picks up 7 pounds from its last start. Goes 1 1/4 miles after running 6 furlongs last time.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.
WORKS Routine prep: 3 works in 30d, last 13d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/25 CD 6f D MSW Won/10 by 1 90 4.2-1 b 2p;wait 1/4;rl bid;edg

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	SA	1 1/16 D	AmPharoh G1	3rd/6 -10L	90	3.0-1	b	2wd;3wd;bested rest
9/7	DMR	5½f D	MSW	Won/10	93	1.4-1	b	Ins;clear;in hand late

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/15	DMR	5½f D	MSW	Won/8	90	0.7-1	b	Opened up; held safely

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/25	CD	1 1/16 D	StretSns G3	Won/7	94	9.1-1	2wbtw;duel ins upr;gam
9/9	KD	1m T	JuvMile Stk	2nd/12 -2½L	75	11-1	Vied btwn;no match
8/29	KD	1m T	MSW	Won/12	81	10-1	Well handled;held sway

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	KEE	6f D	BowmnMllB250k	Won/5 by 3½	91	5.8-1		3-4p;reeled in leaders
9/19	CD	6½f D	MSW	Won/9	79	19-1		Stlkd;3-w turn;all out

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/25	CD	6f D	MSW	Won/10 by 1	90	4.2-1	b	2p;wait 1/4;rl bid;edg

23Mystik BayouR. No · K. McPeekNo · McPeekC88 92 83►75-1Fair 50-12%► Steady88 92 83C

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #15 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 88 92 83

Jockey Rider No · Trainer Kenneth G McPeek

Also today · Jockey this race: American History 20-1, this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Caribbean Life 99-1, this race: Club Reign 99-1 +37 more · Trainer this race: Coach Pope 15-1, this race: Fleetfoot Mac 99-1, this race: Twinkle Town 50-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Fastest 5F work of its morning on Sep 22 (1:01.00), a sign it is training forwardly. 2nd of 13 at 3F on Sep 30, in :36.20.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:01.00 on Sep 22 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/25	CD	1 1/16 D	StretSns G3	3rd/7 -2½L	88	2.5-1	Ins;traffc 1/4;mild 5p
10/3	BEL	1 1/16 D	MSW	Won/7	92	6.3-1	Out;2-3p;lead1/4;clear
9/5	SAR	7f D	MSW	3rd/7 -7L	83	13-1	2-3w upper; wknd late

24Net Par▲R. No · A. GarciaNo · GarciaC101 80 87▲▲+1875-1Fair 50-12%▲▲ Big jump +18 · career best101 80 87C▲ Last fig 101 at/above par 90

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +18 · career best · Last 3 figs 101 80 87

▲ Last fig 101 at/above par 90

Jockey Rider No · Trainer Antonio C Garcia 32% career

Also today · Jockey this race: American History 20-1, this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Caribbean Life 99-1, this race: Club Reign 99-1 +37 more

Purse goes from $300,000 to $5,000,000, a step up. Led at the first call last time.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 13d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	SA	1 1/16 D	AmPharoh G1	2nd/6 -3L	101	18-1	b	Inside; yielded upper
9/7	DMR	6f D	sImSmokinB100k	2nd/7 -4½L	80	1.7-1	b	Antsy;stmbl;stdy early
8/7	DMR	5½f D	sGraduatinB100k	Won/7	87	4.9-1	b	Antsy;ins-3w;led;held

25Nevada▲LSR. No · C. BrownNo · BrownC9080-1Fair 50-12%—90C▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 90LS
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 90
▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 90LS
Longshot read: 80-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 2% against a line of <1%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Rider No · Trainer Chad C Brown 37% career
Also today · Jockey this race: American History 20-1, this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Caribbean Life 99-1, this race: Club Reign 99-1 +37 more · Trainer this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Gaudreau 40-1, this race: Tap Our Way 99-1
WON LAST
Comes in off a victory in a 7-horse maiden special weight race at BEL. Goes 1 1/4 miles after running a mile last time.
PACE HELPS Hot early fractions are likely, and that sets up a late run.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 21 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/16 BEL 1m D MSW Won/7 by ½ 90 2.1-1 Hit gate;bmp;4w1/4;drv
26OdenkirkR. No · M. CasseNo · CasseC87 8299-1Fair 50-12%—87 82C
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 87 82
Jockey Rider No · Trainer Mark Casse 36% career
Also today · Jockey this race: American History 20-1, this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Caribbean Life 99-1, this race: Club Reign 99-1 +37 more
★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST
Posted the fastest 3F work of the morning on Sep 12, in :36.00. Worked 4F in :47.00 on Sep 18, 3rd of 47 at the distance.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.
SHARP LAST OUT Last time the chart read: Brk out/bmp; drew clear.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 42d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/11 WO 7f D Display Stk Won/4 87 1.4-1 L Brk out/bmp;drew clear
9/26 WO 6f T MSW Won/8 by ½ 82 2.2-1 L Hound pace;pull away16
27Pharocity▲R. No · S. AsmussenNo · AsmussenC9799-1Fair 99-11%—97C▲ Last fig 97 at/above par 90
Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #18 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 97
▲ Last fig 97 at/above par 90
Jockey Rider No · Trainer Steven M Asmussen 36% career
Also today · Jockey this race: American History 20-1, this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Caribbean Life 99-1, this race: Club Reign 99-1 +37 more · Trainer this race: Jas 40-1, this race: Powerline 99-1, this race: Social Deception 99-1
★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST
Gets a new rider, Rider No replacing Ricardo Jr Santana. Has run 97 against a 90 par for the class.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 6)
SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: In hand 3-2w; drew clr.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 61d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/5 SAR 7f D MSW Won/9 97 4.3-1 In hand 3-2w; drew clr
28Powerline▼R. No · S. AsmussenNo · AsmussenC69 8199-1Fair 99-1<1%—69 81C▼ Best fig 81 is 5+ under today's par 90
Card model <1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #36 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 69 81
▼ Best fig 81 is 5+ under today's par 90
Jockey Rider No · Trainer Steven M Asmussen 36% career
Also today · Jockey this race: American History 20-1, this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Caribbean Life 99-1, this race: Club Reign 99-1 +37 more · Trainer this race: Jas 40-1, this race: Pharocity 99-1, this race: Social Deception 99-1
60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK
A 69-day gap since its last race. Dropped in well back early last out, 8th of 9 at the first call.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Oct 4; 2 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/22 SAR 6½f D MSW 4th/9 -6½L 69 0.6-1 Very slw st;rank;chckd
7/18 SAR 6f D MSW 2nd/6 -4½L 81 1.6-1 Rank kickback; bmp 1/4
29Q B Rocket▲R. No · B. CoxNo · CoxC92 9550-1Fair 99-11%—92 95C▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 90
Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #29 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 92 95
▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 90
Jockey Rider No · Trainer Brad H Cox 42% career
Also today · Jockey this race: American History 20-1, this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Caribbean Life 99-1, this race: Club Reign 99-1 +37 more · Trainer this race: Fools Rush In 80-1, this race: Lord Mischief 75-1, this race: The Good Life 50-1
Picks up 4 pounds from its last start. 3rd of 27 at 5F on Sep 19, in :59.60.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 13d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 KEE 1 1/16 D BrdrsFut G1 3rd/6 by hd 92 2.8-1 Ins foe;long duel;brsh
8/15 SAR 6f D MSW Won/8 95 1.3-1 Ins foe;rail;eased up
30Salahudin▲R. No · B. BaffertNo · BaffertB96 92 78▲▲+1125-1Fair 30-13%▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best96 92 78B▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 90
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · Last 3 figs 96 92 78
▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 90
Jockey Rider No · Trainer Bob Baffert 43% career
Also today · Jockey this race: American History 20-1, this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Caribbean Life 99-1, this race: Club Reign 99-1 +37 more · Trainer this race: Hughes 10-1, this race: Imperial Honor 80-1, this race: Zedan 75-1
4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST
Figures are climbing: 78, 92, 96 over its last three. The Oct 25 work, 4F in :47.00, was the best time at that distance that morning.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 25; 4 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/12 CD 1m D Iroquois G3 Won/7 96 1.0-1 b Blew st;4w;6p1/4;duel
8/9 ELP 7f D JuvenileB250k Won/7 92 1.3-1 b Vied 3-2wd;drove clear
7/17 ELP 6½f D MSW Won/9 78 0.6-1 b 4-3p;ask 3/8;drove clr

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/16	BEL	1m D	MSW	Won/7 by ½	90	2.1-1		Hit gate;bmp;4w1/4;drv

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/11	WO	7f D	Display Stk	Won/4	87	1.4-1	L	Brk out/bmp;drew clear
9/26	WO	6f T	MSW	Won/8 by ½	82	2.2-1	L	Hound pace;pull away16

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/5	SAR	7f D	MSW	Won/9	97	4.3-1		In hand 3-2w; drew clr

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/22	SAR	6½f D	MSW	4th/9 -6½L	69	0.6-1		Very slw st;rank;chckd
7/18	SAR	6f D	MSW	2nd/6 -4½L	81	1.6-1		Rank kickback; bmp 1/4

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	KEE	1 1/16 D	BrdrsFut G1	3rd/6 by hd	92	2.8-1		Ins foe;long duel;brsh
8/15	SAR	6f D	MSW	Won/8	95	1.3-1		Ins foe;rail;eased up

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/12	CD	1m D	Iroquois G3	Won/7	96	1.0-1	b	Blew st;4w;6p1/4;duel
8/9	ELP	7f D	JuvenileB250k	Won/7	92	1.3-1	b	Vied 3-2wd;drove clear
7/17	ELP	6½f D	MSW	Won/9	78	0.6-1	b	4-3p;ask 3/8;drove clr

31ShowaR. No · W. WardNo · WardC89 69 67▲▲+2199-1Fair 99-11%▲▲ Big jump +21 · career best89 69 67C

Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #22 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +21 · career best · Last 3 figs 89 69 67

Jockey Rider No · Trainer Wesley A Ward 36% career

Also today · Jockey this race: American History 20-1, this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Caribbean Life 99-1, this race: Club Reign 99-1 +37 more

WON LAST

Has moved up each time out, 67 to 69 to 89. Goes 1 1/4 miles after running 1 1/16 miles last time.

PACE HELPS Several horses want the lead, which is the early heat a closer is looking for.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 20 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/15	KEE	1 1/16 D	OC 100k n1x	Won/6	89	5.2-1		Step slow;4w;bid;clear
9/9	KD	1m T	MSW	Won/7 by 1	69	2.9-1		Off slow;bid btw;clear
7/26	SAR	1 1/16 T	MSW	5th/8 -4½L	67	5.0-1	b	Chased ins; weakened

32Social Deception▼R. No · S. AsmussenNo · AsmussenC84 67 84▲▲+899-1Fair 99-1<1%▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best84 67 84C▼ Best fig 84 is 5+ under today's par 90
Card model <1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #30 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Last 3 figs 84 67 84
▼ Best fig 84 is 5+ under today's par 90
Jockey Rider No · Trainer Steven M Asmussen 36% career
Also today · Jockey this race: American History 20-1, this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Caribbean Life 99-1, this race: Club Reign 99-1 +37 more · Trainer this race: Jas 40-1, this race: Pharocity 99-1, this race: Powerline 99-1
WON LAST
Turns back in 9 days. Last start was a win, in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at KEE at 6.4-1.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 26 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/21 KEE 1 1/16 D MSW Won/10 by 3 84 6.4-1 Ins;rallied 2wbtw;held
9/9 KD 1m T MSW 2nd/7 67 1.0-1 2p;met bid;clear 2nd
8/23 ELP 1m D MSW 2nd/12 84 15-1 3w;bid 3/8;led;bested

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/21	KEE	1 1/16 D	MSW	Won/10 by 3	84	6.4-1	Ins;rallied 2wbtw;held
9/9	KD	1m T	MSW	2nd/7	67	1.0-1	2p;met bid;clear 2nd
8/23	ELP	1m D	MSW	2nd/12	84	15-1	3w;bid 3/8;led;bested

33Staunch▲R. No · B. WalshNo · WalshC94 87 80▲▲+1060-1Fair 99-11%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best94 87 80C▲ Last fig 94 at/above par 90

Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #21 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Last 3 figs 94 87 80

▲ Last fig 94 at/above par 90

Jockey Rider No · Trainer Brendan P Walsh 36% career

Also today · Jockey this race: American History 20-1, this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Caribbean Life 99-1, this race: Club Reign 99-1 +37 more

Has moved up each time out, 80 to 87 to 94. Runs for $5,000,000 after a $200,000 race last out.

EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.

WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 13d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/25	CD	1 1/16 D	StretSns G3	2nd/7 by hd	94	3.0-1	4w2nd;bid;dueld;denied
9/26	CD	7½f D	MSW	Won/8 by hd	87	2.0-1	3-2p;bid 2w1/8;drw off
8/21	ELP	6f D	MSW	3rd/12 -5½L	80	6.7-1	5p upper;rolling late

34Tap Our WayR. No · C. BrownNo · BrownC87 8799-1Fair 99-11%—87 87C
Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #16 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 87 87
Jockey Rider No · Trainer Chad C Brown 37% career
Also today · Jockey this race: American History 20-1, this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Caribbean Life 99-1, this race: Club Reign 99-1 +37 more · Trainer this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Gaudreau 40-1, this race: Nevada 80-1
Rider No takes over from Flavien Prat in the saddle. A longer trip: 1 1/16 miles last out, 1 1/4 miles today.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 5d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 BEL 1 1/16 D MSW 2nd/7 -1½L 87 1.2-1 Stmbld st;ins3/8;5p1/4
9/5 SAR 7f D MSW 2nd/7 -7L 87 7.6-1 3w pursuit; kept on
35The Good Life▲R. No · B. CoxNo · CoxB96 8750-1Fair 99-11%—96 87B▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 90
Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #25 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 96 87
▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 90
Jockey Rider No · Trainer Brad H Cox 42% career
Also today · Jockey this race: American History 20-1, this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Caribbean Life 99-1, this race: Club Reign 99-1 +37 more · Trainer this race: Fools Rush In 80-1, this race: Lord Mischief 75-1, this race: Q B Rocket 50-1
WON LAST
Figure of 96 on the record sits above the 90 par. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 96).
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)
SHARP LAST OUT Last time the chart read: In hand 2p; edged clr.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 62d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/6 SAR 7f D Hopeful G1 Won/7 96 2.6-1 In hand 2p; edged clr
7/18 SAR 6f D MSW Won/6 87 3.4-1 In hand 2p; drew off
36Twinkle Town▲R. No · K. McPeekNo · McPeekC92 8650-1Fair 50-12%—92 86C▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 90
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #12 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 92 86
▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 90
Jockey Rider No · Trainer Kenneth G McPeek
Also today · Jockey this race: American History 20-1, this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Caribbean Life 99-1, this race: Club Reign 99-1 +37 more · Trainer this race: Coach Pope 15-1, this race: Fleetfoot Mac 99-1, this race: Mystik Bayou 75-1
60D LAYOFFWON LAST
Returns from a 90-day break, the biggest in the field. 2nd of 13 at 5F on Aug 29, in :59.60.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 62 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/1 SAR 6½f D SarSpcl G2 Won/6 92 3.5-1 Out;3-4p;strong drive
6/27 CD 6f D MSW Won/7 86 3.3-1 Ins foe-2p;ridden out
37U. S. S. Valor▲R. No · C. McGaugheyNo · McGaugheyA106 105 88▲▲+108-1Fair 15-16%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best106 105 88A▲ Last fig 106 at/above par 902
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Last 3 figs 106 105 88
▲ Last fig 106 at/above par 90
Jockey Rider No · Trainer Claude Iii McGaughey
Also today · Jockey this race: American History 20-1, this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Caribbean Life 99-1, this race: Club Reign 99-1 +37 more
WON LAST
Has moved up each time out, 88 to 105 to 106. Fastest 4F work of its morning on Aug 19 (:48.00), a sign it is training forwardly.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.
SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: 3w pursuit; drew clear.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 35d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 BEL 1m D Champagn G1 Won/6 106 0.4-1 3w pursuit; drew clear
9/5 SAR 7f D MSW Won/7 105 0.8-1 Pressed; geared down
8/8 SAR 6½f D MSW 3rd/8 -2½L 88 5.4-1 Carry in brk;stdy5/16
38ZedanR. No · B. BaffertNo · Baffert?75-1Fair 99-1<1%—Debut?
Card model <1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #41 · Tier ?
Jockey Rider No · Trainer Bob Baffert 43% career
Also today · Jockey this race: American History 20-1, this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Caribbean Life 99-1, this race: Club Reign 99-1 +37 more · Trainer this race: Hughes 10-1, this race: Imperial Honor 80-1, this race: Salahudin 25-1
Debut for a trainer who is 33% with first-timers, over 228 starts. Makes his first start with no form to go on, only the Flightline and Lucrezia breeding.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
Last three races
First start. By Flightline out of Lucrezia (Into Mischief)
Trainer B. Baffert: 1st-time starters: 33% wins, 64% in the money (228 starts) · 2-year-olds: 31% wins, 63% in the money (319 starts)
No published workouts.
39All Other Three Year Old FilliesR. No · T. UnknownNo · Unknown?99-1Fair 99-1<1%—Debut?
Card model <1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #37 · Tier ?
Jockey Rider No · Trainer Trainer Unknown
Also today · Jockey this race: American History 20-1, this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Caribbean Life 99-1, this race: Club Reign 99-1 +37 more · Trainer this race: All Other 3yo Fillies 99-1, this race: All Other 3yo Males 6-5, this race: All Other Three Year Old Males 6-5
Debut for this Unknown Sire filly, whose dam is Unknown Dam.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
Last three races
First start. By Unknown Sire out of Unknown Dam ()
No published workouts.
39All Other 3yo FilliesR. No · T. UnknownNo · Unknown?99-1Fair 99-1<1%—Debut?
Card model <1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #38 · Tier ?
Jockey Rider No · Trainer Trainer Unknown
Also today · Jockey this race: American History 20-1, this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Caribbean Life 99-1, this race: Club Reign 99-1 +37 more · Trainer this race: All Other Three Year Old Fillies 99-1, this race: All Other 3yo Males 6-5, this race: All Other Three Year Old Males 6-5
Unraced, so the works and the connections are the whole story.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
Last three races
No published workouts.
40All Other 3yo MalesR. No · T. UnknownNo · Unknown?6-5Fair 5-117%—Debut?
Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #39 · Tier ?
Jockey Rider No · Trainer Trainer Unknown
Also today · Jockey this race: American History 20-1, this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Caribbean Life 99-1, this race: Club Reign 99-1 +37 more · Trainer this race: All Other Three Year Old Fillies 99-1, this race: All Other 3yo Fillies 99-1, this race: All Other Three Year Old Males 6-5
First career start, so there is no race form to read.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
Last three races
No published workouts.
40All Other Three Year Old MalesR. No · T. UnknownNo · Unknown?6-5Fair 5-117%—Debut?
Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #40 · Tier ?
Jockey Rider No · Trainer Trainer Unknown
Also today · Jockey this race: American History 20-1, this race: Card Man 99-1, this race: Caribbean Life 99-1, this race: Club Reign 99-1 +37 more · Trainer this race: All Other Three Year Old Fillies 99-1, this race: All Other 3yo Fillies 99-1, this race: All Other 3yo Males 6-5
Unraced so far; the pedigree is Unknown Sire out of Unknown Dam.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
Last three races
First start. By Unknown Sire out of Unknown Dam ()
No published workouts.

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	BEL	1 1/16 D	MSW	2nd/7 -1½L	87	1.2-1		Stmbld st;ins3/8;5p1/4
9/5	SAR	7f D	MSW	2nd/7 -7L	87	7.6-1		3w pursuit; kept on

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/6	SAR	7f D	Hopeful G1	Won/7	96	2.6-1		In hand 2p; edged clr
7/18	SAR	6f D	MSW	Won/6	87	3.4-1		In hand 2p; drew off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/1	SAR	6½f D	SarSpcl G2	Won/6	92	3.5-1		Out;3-4p;strong drive
6/27	CD	6f D	MSW	Won/7	86	3.3-1		Ins foe-2p;ridden out

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/3	BEL	1m D	Champagn G1	Won/6	106	0.4-1	3w pursuit; drew clear
9/5	SAR	7f D	MSW	Won/7	105	0.8-1	Pressed; geared down
8/8	SAR	6½f D	MSW	3rd/8 -2½L	88	5.4-1	Carry in brk;stdy5/16

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (27 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER · RACE 1

UPCOMING

Grade 1 Stakes · $5,000,000 purse

Field

42 runners

Purse

$5,000,000

Post

7:00 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#17 · 6%

Stakes, for 2-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

The shape is the story here: 17 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #17 Hughes (a presser/stalker, M/L 10-1). Recent figures: 108 · 100 · 100. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #37 U. S. S. Valor at 8-1. Use #16 How's Al Today in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #40 ALL OTHER 3YO MALES (6-5) — our number has it ranked #39.
#40 ALL OTHER 3YO MALES — our #39 number, about right at the windows (24.5% to their 26.4%).
#40 ALL OTHER THREE YEAR OLD MALES — our #40 number, about right at the windows (24.5% to their 26.4%).
#37 U. S. S. VALOR — our #2 number, a price play — we're at 6.2%, the board 6.5%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #16 HOW'S AL TODAY (99-1) — our fair 0.9% is above the morning line's 0.6%; supported by: 27-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #6 Conviction; pressure from #19 Inshallah, #35 The Good Life; the shape helps #10 Endrush, #25 Nevada, #31 Showa; and works against #2 Card Man, #3 Caribbean Life, #4 Club Reign.

Lead

6Conviction10119Inshallah9635The Good Life968Dargham9536Twinkle Town9514He Is No Lie9327Pharocity912Card Man904Club Reign9013Gaudreau909Earth Song8929Q B Rocket8811Fleetfoot Mac8720Jas8718Imperial Honor863Caribbean Life8434Tap Our Way81

Press

21Just For Pipa9224Net Par9217Hughes8937U. S. S. Valor895Coach Pope8712Fools Rush In8623Mystik Bayou8626Odenkirk8330Salahudin8332Social Deception65

Stalk

22Lord Mischief9333Staunch8316How's Al Today817Damavand801American History7728Powerline76

10Endrush7925Nevada7831Showa74

No style yet

15Highwaymen38Zedan39All Other Three Year Old Fillies39All Other 3yo Fillies40All Other 3yo Males40All Other Three Year Old Males

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Conviction

101

Inshallah

The Good Life

Dargham

Twinkle Town

He Is No Lie

Lord Mischief

Just For Pipa

Net Par

Pharocity

Card Man

Club Reign

Gaudreau

Earth Song

Hughes

U. S. S. Valor

Q B Rocket

Coach Pope

Fleetfoot Mac

Jas

Fools Rush In

Imperial Honor

Mystik Bayou

Caribbean Life

Odenkirk

Salahudin

Staunch

How's Al Today

Tap Our Way

Damavand

American History

Powerline

Social Deception

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Endrush

Showa

Nevada

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