SWA · RACE 1
UPCOMINGOptional Claiming $12,500
Claiming $12,500, for 3-year-olds and up.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #3 Major Wager (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-1). Recent figures: 73 · 74 · 66. Backup is #8 Catamount at 3-1. Use #4 Whatdoyouthinkmark in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Has won 8 of 20 going today's distance. 5th last time, 5½ lengths back, in a field of 9.
Changes barns, from Anna M Meah to Michael Campbell. A 51-day gap since its last race.
Tops the field on speed figures, an 85 against 81 for the next best. A step up in company: optional claiming before, optional claiming today.
New trainer: George S Bush had it last time, Thomas D Foley now. Figures have slipped: 85, 78, 71 over its last three.
Has moved up each time out, 66 to 69 to 76. Finished 4th in a 9-horse $12,500 claiming race at IND, beaten 3½ lengths.
Beaten ½ length for 2nd in a 9-horse $12,500 claiming race at IND. Led at the first call last time.
Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Raises its level, $7,500 claiming last time and optional claiming now.
Moves up from $7,500 claiming to optional claiming. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.
Back to 5 furlongs off a 6 furlongs race. Switches from dirt to turf.
At a glance
- Market favourite #8 CATAMOUNT (3-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
- #8 CATAMOUNT — our #2 number, about right at the windows (19.8% to their 19.3%).
- #4 WHATDOYOUTHINKMARK — our #3 number, about right at the windows (19.8% to their 19.3%).
- #3 MAJOR WAGER — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 15.3%, they've got 12.9%.
Value read
- #3 MAJOR WAGER — we make it 15.3%, the morning line implies 12.9%. We're 18.4 points higher than the line — our opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds.
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #6 Butch's Best; pressure from #4 Whatdoyouthinkmark, #1 Maibock; and works against #1 Maibock, #4 Whatdoyouthinkmark, #6 Butch's Best.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — the projected speed duel sets up closers underneath — spread the exotics deeper. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Win / Place
#3 Major Wager (place saver: #8 Catamount)
#3 Major Wager rates the best; #8 Catamount the logical insurance if you want to be covered.
Exacta — BOX
#3 Major Wager · #8 Catamount
Two standouts with little between them — box #3 Major Wager and #8 Catamount both ways.
Trifecta — BOX
#3 Major Wager · #8 Catamount · #4 Whatdoyouthinkmark
Box the top three for any 1-2-3 order; add a 4th only if the field is wide open.
Superfecta — KEY
#3 Major Wager / #8 Catamount · #4 Whatdoyouthinkmark · #7 J P Hellish · #9 Spoke / #8 Catamount · #4 Whatdoyouthinkmark · #7 J P Hellish · #9 Spoke / ALL or #8 Catamount · #4 Whatdoyouthinkmark · #7 J P Hellish · #9 Spoke
Deep enough field to spread a super — key the top, spread the next few, fill 4th wide.
Bet types offered at this track →
LEG 1 OF THE HORSESHOE TURF PICK 3