SWA · RACE 2
UPCOMINGState-Bred Allowance · $40,000 purse
Allowance, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses, that have not won two races other than maiden, claiming, or starter.
Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #9 Instilled Zip (a closer, M/L 8-1). Recent figures: 70 · 67 · 65. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #10 Crickenberger at 6-1. Use #8 Sweet Heat in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Aug 14, in :49.00. 2nd of 8 at 4F on Jun 29, in :48.00.
Sat 3rd of 7 early last time. Fastest 4F work of its morning on Aug 11 (:47.40), a sign it is training forwardly.
Jockey switch: William Jr Antongeorgi last out, O Bocachica today. Off 46 days since the last start.
Won last out in an 11-horse maiden special weight race at IND. Best recent figure is 64, well under the 75 par for this level.
Purse drops from $150,000 to $40,000 against its last start. Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here.
Owns the highest recent figure here at 80. 0 for 4 at today's distance.
A step up in company: $12,500 claiming before, allowance today. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.
Figures have slipped: 75, 68, 66 over its last three. Raises its level, $12,500 claiming last time and allowance now.
Switches from dirt to turf. Last start was a win, in an 8-horse allowance race at IND at 3-1.
Has moved up each time out, 51 to 64 to 72. Winner of a 10-horse $20,000 claiming race at IND last time.
Comes in off a victory in a 9-horse allowance race at IND. Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 67 against a 75 par.
Goes a mile after running 5½ furlongs last time. Switches from dirt to turf.
At a glance
- Market favourite #1 PINK PICTURE (5-1) — our number has it ranked #11.
- #10 CRICKENBERGER — our #2 number, about right at the windows (11.3% to their 10.6%).
- #1 PINK PICTURE — our #11 number, about right at the windows (11.3% to their 12.3%).
- #8 SWEET HEAT — our #3 number, about right at the windows (10.8% to their 10.6%).
Value read
- No price-band edge — the market looks efficient here.
Pace
Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.
Likely leader: #11 Tiz Wine Time; pressure from #3 Jack's Summer, #12 Molly's Potion.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — a balanced pace makes it a trip race — moderate spreads. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Place / Show
#9 Instilled Zip · #10 Crickenberger · #8 Sweet Heat
Top trio is bunched — backing one to hit the board is sounder than a flat win bet.
Exacta — BOX
#9 Instilled Zip · #10 Crickenberger · #8 Sweet Heat
Top three are close — a 3-horse box covers the likely 1-2 in any order.
Trifecta — BOX
#9 Instilled Zip · #10 Crickenberger · #8 Sweet Heat
Box the top three for any 1-2-3 order; add a 4th only if the field is wide open.
Superfecta — KEY
#9 Instilled Zip / #10 Crickenberger · #8 Sweet Heat · #4 Once More · #2 Innisfree Lass / #10 Crickenberger · #8 Sweet Heat · #4 Once More · #2 Innisfree Lass / ALL or #10 Crickenberger · #8 Sweet Heat · #4 Once More · #2 Innisfree Lass
Deep enough field to spread a super — key the top, spread the next few, fill 4th wide.
Bet types offered at this track →
LEG 2 OF THE HORSESHOE TURF PICK 3