1Wine CandyJ. Morelos · S. PulgarinMorelos · PulgarinB81 77 47▲▲+14↕@trip 849-2Fair 7-113%
▲▲ Big jump +1481 77 47 ↕@trip 84BCard model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 47–81 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 77 47
WON LASTLast start was a win, in a 7-horse $10,000 claiming race at GP at 0.7-1. A step up in company: $10,000 claiming before, $17,500 claiming today.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 8d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/13 GP 6f D Clm 10k bv Won/7 81 0.7-1 b L Forced pace; held sway 8/8 GP 5½f D Clm 10k n2lc Won/11 77 1.4-1 b L Sent;dug in;held on 7/13 GP 6f D Clm 30k n2l 7th/7 -9½L 47 1.1-1 L Inside; steadied 5/16 2Lawler▼R. Hughes · R. SierraHughes · SierraA73 84 84▼-4↕@trip 843-1Fair 9-218%
▼ Down -473 84 84 ↕@trip 84A▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (73 vs 84)3Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -4 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 62–84 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 84 84
▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (73 vs 84)CLASS DROPSwitches from turf to dirt. Shortens up to 6 furlongs after going a mile.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.20 on Sep 10 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/9 GP 1m T OC 35k 6th/7 -4½L 73 16-1 b L Track;svd gnd;tired 6/19 GP 5½f D OC 75k n1x 3rd/6 -4½L 84 13-1 b L Inside; evenly 5/30 GP 6f D Clm 25k b Won/5 84 2.5-1 b L Duel;2p;drew off 3Forty Love★N. Juarez · S. HernandezJuarez · HernandezA70 85 86▼▼-13@trip 862-1Fair 5-228%
▼▼ Big drop -1370 85 86@trip 86A★ Best at the trip 861Card model 28% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -13 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 85 86
★ Best at the trip 8660D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORKChanges barns, from William N Martin to Sandino R Hernandez. Owns the highest recent figure here at 86.
EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.40 on Oct 23 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/1 PID 6f D Clm 25k bc 3rd/5 -2½L 70 1.4-1 L Held up turn;ran-on 8/2 PRM 6f D Alw s 3rd/7 -6½L 85 5.1-1 LB In back;3w;surged late 7/5 ELP 6f D Clm 30k b 2nd/5 by hd 86 9.0-1 L Circled 4p;dueled;hung 4Kazooza▼LSJ. Ocasio · G. ArscottOcasio · ArscottB74 74 69▲▲+11↕@trip 7410-1Fair 12-17%
▲▲ Big jump +1174 74 69 ↕@trip 74B▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 86LSCard model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 46–74 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 74 69
▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 86LSLongshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 7% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.
CLASS DROPWON LASTRaises its level, $8,000 claiming last time and $17,500 claiming now. Won last out in a 5-horse $8,000 claiming race at GP.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 133 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/4 GP 5½f D Clm 10k b Won/5 74 3.3-1 L Vied inside; drew clr 9/6 GP 6f D Clm 17k b 4th/5 -5L 74 29-1 L Rail trip; no rally 8/23 GP 1m D Clm 10k b 4th/5 -2L 69 16-1 L Pace;headed;gave way 5Cross Haste▼S. Leon · D. NunnLeon · NunnB65 76 79▼-7@trip 8310-1Fair 12-17%
▼ Down -765 76 79@trip 83B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesCard model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -7 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 65 76 79
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesTrending the wrong way on speed, 79 to 76 to 65. Douglas Nunn takes over the training from Victor Russo.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 5)WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 61d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/24 GP 5½f D Clm 6k c 6th/7 -7½L 65 7.1-1 L Chase;2p;tired 10/4 GP 6f D Clm 6k c 3rd/7 -3L 76 3.5-1 L 5w into lane; rallied 9/19 GP 5f D Clm 10k 4th/6 -4½L 79 18-1 L Failed to menace; 6American Tact▼Y. Torres · M. McGoeyTorres · McGoeyC63 74 64▼-5@trip 6320-1Fair 30-13%
▼ Down -563 74 64@trip 63C▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 86Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 63 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 74 64
▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 86CLASS DROPBest recent figure is 74, well under the 86 par for this level. Moves up from $10,000 claiming to $17,500 claiming.
EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 15d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/13 GP 6f D Clm 10k b 6th/7 -5¼L 63 14-1 b L Never menaced 7/25 EVD 7f D Clm 20k n2l Won/8 by hd 74 17-1 b L Steady urging; all out 6/26 EVD 6½f D Clm 5k n2l 2nd/11 -3L 64 27-1 b L Stumble brk;6w turn 7CossatotL. Reyes · G. JacksonReyes · JacksonA53 85 84▼▼-31↕@trip 855-2Fair 7-223%
▼▼ Big drop -3153 85 84 ↕@trip 85A2Card model 23% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -31 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 53–85 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 53 85 84
CLASS UPBack to 6 furlongs off a 1 1/16 miles race. A big drop, $35,000 claiming to $17,500 claiming, and worth asking why.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 8d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 GP 1 1/16 D Clm 35k b 6th/6 -11L 53 5.5-1 b L Chased; gave way; 8/30 GP 6f D Clm 17k n2x Won/7 85 1.8-1 b L 3wd move; held sway 6/26 GP 6f D Clm 17k n2x 2nd/5 84 3.3-1 b L Pressured pace;gamely
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
SWL · RACE 2
UPCOMINGClaiming $17,500
Claiming $17,500, for 3-year-olds and up.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #3 Forty Love (a closer, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 70 · 85 · 86. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #7 Cossatot at 5-2. Use #2 Lawler in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #3 FORTY LOVE (2-1) — our number agrees.
- #3 FORTY LOVE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (26.6% to their 26.0%).
- #7 COSSATOT — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.3% to their 22.3%).
- #2 LAWLER — our #3 number, about right at the windows (20.3% to their 19.5%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #5 Cross Haste; pressure from #1 Wine Candy, #4 Kazooza; the shape helps #1 Wine Candy, #2 Lawler, #4 Kazooza; and works against #5 Cross Haste.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
LEG B OF THE SUNSET SIX
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta