1Nickel CLSE. Perez · D. FawkesPerez · FawkesC83 81 73▲+6@trip 7910-1Fair 10-110%
▲ Up +6 · career best83 81 73@trip 79CLSCard model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 79 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 81 73
LSLongshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 10% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.
WON LASTComes in off a victory in a 9-horse allowance race at GP. Raises its level, allowance last time and stakes nongraded now.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Stp slw; thru traffic), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 7d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/27 GP 1m T sAlw52000n1x Won/9 by 2½ 83 5.3-1 b L Stp slw;thru traffic 8/15 GP 1m T OC 35k 2nd/8 81 3.2-1 b L Led 3/16th pl;no match 7/5 GP 7½f T OC 75k n1x 6th/7 -3L 73 8.2-1 b L Reserved 4wd; no bid 2Redland Rebels▲★J. Torrealba · P. BianconeTorrealba · BianconeA85 86 87►@trip 903-1Fair 4-120%
► Steady85 86 87@trip 90A▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 85★ Best at the trip 902Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 90 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 86 87
▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 85★ Best at the trip 90WON LASTLast race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Won last out in a 6-horse optional claiming race at GP.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 8)WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 8d ago)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/11 GP 1 1/16 D OC 25k n1x Won/6 85 0.6-1 b L Broke out;pace;held on 9/13 GP 1 1/16 D OC 25k n1x 2nd/6 86 1.0-1 b L Dug in; worn down 8/15 GP 1 1/16 T sAlw65000n1x Won/7 87 0.4-1 b L Pace; edged clear 1/4 3KhozaliteL. Reyes · J. D'AngeloReyes · D'AngeloC80 74 75▲+5≡@trip 8112-1Fair 15-16%
▲ Up +580 74 75 ≡@trip 81CCard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +5 · ≡ Steady figures 74–80 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 74 75
Also today · Jockey R1: Mia Familia 7-2, R2: Cossatot 5-2 · Trainer R1: Mia Familia 7-2, R4: Bojaca Blessing 5-1Switches from dirt to turf. Moves up from optional claiming to stakes nongraded.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 7 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/11 GP 1 1/16 D OC 25k n1x 3rd/6 -2¼L 80 8.8-1 b L Rail trip; gaining 9/7 KD 1m T GnRunner Stk 13th/14 -7¾L 74 92-1 b 2w;bmp 1st;faded 7/25 GP 5f T OC 75k n1x 7th/7 -4½L 75 2.9-1 b L Sqzd st;in tight late 4Justin SmilesN. Juarez · J. OrsenoJuarez · OrsenoC78 83 85▼-4≡@trip 8520-1Fair 50-12%
▼ Down -478 83 85 ≡@trip 85CCard model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -4 · ≡ Steady figures 78–85 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 83 85
Trending the wrong way on speed, 85 to 83 to 78. A step up in company: allowance before, stakes nongraded today.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 8d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/27 GP 1m T sAlw52000n1x 5th/9 -4¾L 78 6.2-1 b L Trailed; late gain 9/4 GP 1 1/16 D OC 35k 2nd/6 -½L 83 1.1-1 b L 4w-ins;game 2nd 8/15 GP 1 1/16 T sAlw65000n1x 2nd/7 -2¾L 85 7.3-1 b L Bid between; willingly 5Trelawny▲J. Morelos · J. PinchinMorelos · PinchinB86 78 85▲+68-1Fair 12-18%
▲ Up +6 · career best86 78 85B▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 85Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · Last 3 figs 86 78 85
▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 8560D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LASTLast start was a win, in a 6-horse race at GP at 1.6-1. Off 63 days since the last start.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 7d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/29 GP 1 1/16 D BearsDenB100k Won/6 86 1.6-1 b Prevail on bob 7/5 GP 7½f T OC 75k n1x Won/7 by hd 78 22-1 b L Urged 5/16; responded 5/31 GP 5½f D OC 25k n1x 2nd/3 -2L 85 3.6-1 b L No match; 2nd best 6High Lateen▲D. Herrera · D. FawkesHerrera · FawkesA87 80 85▲▲+12↕6-1Fair 8-111%
▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best87 80 85 ↕A▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 853Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 60–87 · Last 3 figs 87 80 85
▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 853 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LASTComes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Best recent figure of 87 sits right around the 85 par.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 7d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/13 GP 1 1/16 D OC 25k n1x Won/6 by hd 87 5.5-1 L Hop tracks late;gamely 7/18 GP 1m T sAlw65000n1x Won/7 by hd 80 1.7-1 L Tipped out;bid; clear 7/3 GP 1m T MCL 35k Won/9 by 1½ 85 3.9-1 L Ins 1/4;4-w uppr;drvng 7Turf StarC. Gil · H. MotionGil · MotionA80 86 82▼-4≡@trip 862-1Fair 3-127%
▼ Down -480 86 82 ≡@trip 86A1Card model 27% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -4 · ≡ Steady figures 80–86 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 86 82
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSRuns for $75,000 today after a $1,750,000 race last time. Dropped in well back early last out, 13th of 14 at the first call.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (3 works in 30d, last 14d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/7 KD 1m T GnRunner Stk 7th/14 -7L 80 21-1 b Void early;ins;imprvd 8/1 CNL 1 1/16 T Scrtriat G2 5th/8 -6½L 86 15-1 b Ins;swung6w;late rally 7/4 SAR 1⅛m T BelDby G1 10th/10 -6L 82 45-1 b 4p turns;6p1/4;empty 8Senor Roberto▼H. Figueroa · T. MoubarakFigueroa · MoubarakC79 79 79▲+3@trip 7330-1Fair 50-12%
▲ Up +3 · career best79 79 79@trip 73C▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 85Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +3 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 73 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 79 79
▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 8560D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSA 63-day gap since its last race. A 79 top number against a 85 par, so it fits the level.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 7d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/29 GP 1 1/16 D BearsDenB100k 5th/6 -3L 79 3.3-1 b Mild interest;no impct 8/3 GP 1 1/16 D MSW Won/9 79 2.5-1 b L Bumped st; 4-5w run 7/5 GP 1m T MSW 2nd/9 -2¾L 79 5.5-1 b L Off step slow; 4wd bid 9Behold the KingS. Leon · M. CasseLeon · CasseB70 80 84▼▼-11@trip 866-1Fair 8-110%
▼▼ Big drop -1170 80 84@trip 86BCard model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 80 84
60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSReturns from a 147-day break, the biggest in the field. Figures have slipped: 84, 80, 70 over its last three.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 8d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 6/6 GP 1 1/16 D NtSrprsngB100k 8th/9 -9½L 70 2.9-1 Prompted 2p; gave way 4/17 GP 1m T OC 75k n1x 2nd/7 -2L 80 7.6-1 L 4-3w;bid 1/4;repelled 3/28 GP 7½f T CutlerBayB175k 7th/7 -2L 84 8.4-1 Stalked3w;lost crop1/8 10Bourbon Dream▲M. Meneses · F. GutierrezMeneses · GutierrezB93 77 83▲▲+13@trip 7715-1Fair 20-14%
▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best93 77 83@trip 77B▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 85Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 77 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 93 77 83
▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 85WON LASTOwns the highest recent figure here at 93. Carries 122 pounds, 5 more than last time.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 8d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 DEL 1 1/16 D Alw n1x Won/8 by ½ 93 3.5-1 b L Outwrd;ins-4w3/8;edged 8/27 CNL 1 1/16 T Alw n2l 6th/8 -6L 77 3.1-1 b L Ins;no rally 8/7 CNL 1⅛m T MSW Won/6 83 1.3-1 b L Stlk 2-3w;4w1/4;ang in
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
SWL · RACE 3
UPCOMINGShowing Up Stakes
Stakes, for 3-year-olds.
Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #7 Turf Star (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 80 · 86 · 82. Backup is #2 Redland Rebels at 3-1. Use #6 High Lateen in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #7 TURF STAR (2-1) — our number agrees.
- #7 TURF STAR — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (26.1% to their 25.8%).
- #2 REDLAND REBELS — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.3% to their 19.4%).
- #6 HIGH LATEEN — our #3 number, about right at the windows (11.0% to their 11.1%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #2 Redland Rebels; pressure from #5 Trelawny, #9 Behold The King; the shape helps #1 Nickel C, #3 Khozalite, #4 Justin Smiles; and works against #2 Redland Rebels.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
LEG C OF THE SUNSET SIX
BET OPTIONS
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