R2 SWN · Grade 1 Stakes · $3,658,771 purse

1:40 PM ET · 1 1/4 Miles Turf · $3,658,771 · 17 runners1:40 PM · 1 1/4m Turf · 17 runners

Upcoming $3659K · Grade 1 Stakes · $3,658,771 purse

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Croix Du NordC. Demuro · T. SaitoDemuro · Saito?5-2Fair 7-221%——?1
Card model 21% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #1 · Tier ?
Jockey Cristian Demuro 32% career · Trainer Takashi Saito 14% career
60D LAYOFF
139 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. New trainer: T *saito had it last time, Takashi Saito now.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
6/14 HSN 1⅜m T Tkrzuk Knn G1 2nd/18 — 1.5-1
5/3 KYO 2m T Tnn Sh Sprn G1 Won/15 — 0.8-1
4/5 HSN 1¼m T Osaka Hai G1 Won/15 — 1.5-1
2Elton BarowsF. Matsuwaka · H. SugiyamaMatsuwaka · Sugiyama?56-1Fair 50-12%——?
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #16 · Tier ?
Jockey Fuma Matsuwaka · Trainer Haruki Sugiyama
Also today · Trainer this race: Giovanni 19-1
Purse goes from $808,916 to $3,658,771, a step up. Changes barns, from H. *sugiyama to Haruki Sugiyama.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 TOK 1⅛m T Mainichi Ok G2 9th/17 — 34-1
7/26 NII 1m T Sekiya Kine G3 5th/14 — 7.9-1
6/21 HSN 1m T Shirasagi S G3 Won/18 — 12-1
3RegaleiraM. Iwata · T. KimuraIwata · Kimura?11-1Fair 15-16%——?
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #4 · Tier ?
Jockey Mirai Iwata · Trainer Tetsuya Kimura 14% career
Runs for $3,658,771 after a $813,909 race last out. Tetsuya Kimura takes over the training from T *kimura.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/20 NAK 1⅜m T Snk Sh All G2 4th/13 — 2.1-1
6/14 HSN 1⅜m T Tkrzuk Knn G1 7th/18 — 6.8-1
12/28 NAK 12.4273f T Arm Knn (Th G1 4th/16 — 2.3-1
4ReadinessN. Yokoyama · M. KonYokoyama · Kon?23-1Fair 30-13%——?
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #11 · Tier ?
Jockey Norihiro Yokoyama 14% career · Trainer Mitsugu Kon
Stretches out from 1 1/8 miles to 1 1/4 miles. New trainer: M *kon had it last time, Mitsugu Kon now.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 TOK 1⅛m T Mainichi Ok G2 3rd/17 — 19-1
8/16 SAP 1¼m T Sapporo Knn G2 3rd/16 — 35-1
7/12 HAK 1⅛m T Tomoe Sho282k 10th/14 — 6.5-1
5Champagne ColorH. Uchida · T. TanakaUchida · Tanaka?99-1Fair 99-11%——?
Card model 1% · Fair odds 99-1 · Our #17 · Tier ?
Jockey Hiroyuki Uchida · Trainer Tsuyoshi Tanaka 14% career
Finished 13th last time in a 17-horse race at TOK. Purse goes from $808,916 to $3,658,771, a step up.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 TOK 1⅛m T Mainichi Ok G2 13th/17 — 138-1
6/7 TOK 1m T Yasuda Kine G1 12th/17 — 35-1
4/26 KYO 1m T Ymur Mlrs C G2 9th/18 — 38-1
6Seiun HadesH. Miyuki · S. HashiguchiMiyuki · Hashiguchi?13-1Fair 20-15%——?
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier ?
Jockey Hideaki Miyuki · Trainer Shinsuke Hashiguchi
WON LAST
Has won 3 of 7 going today's distance. Comes in off a victory in a 17-horse race at TOK.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 TOK 1⅛m T Mainichi Ok G2 Won/17 — 10-1
6/7 TOK 1m T Yasuda Kine G1 4th/17 — 10-1
4/5 HSN 1¼m T Osaka Hai G1 5th/15 — 64-1
7Masquerade BallC. Lemaire · T. TezukaLemaire · Tezuka?3-1Fair 6-115%——?2
Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #2 · Tier ?
Jockey C Lemaire 14% career · Trainer Takahisa Tezuka 14% career
Also today · Trainer this race: Realize Sirius 15-1
60D LAYOFF
Freshened 98 days. Watch how its recent works look. Shortens up to 1 1/4 miles after going 1 1/2 miles.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
7/25 ASC 1½m T Kng Grg V A G1 7th/9 — 6.5-1
4/26 *ST 1¼m T Fwd Qun Elz G1 2nd/8 — 5.0-1
11/30 TOK 1½m T Japan Cup G1 2nd/17 — 1.5-1
8Jun BlossomM. Sugihara · Y. TomomichiSugihara · Tomomichi?37-1Fair 50-12%——?
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #14 · Tier ?
Jockey Makoto Sugihara · Trainer Yasuo Tomomichi
Yasuo Tomomichi takes over the training from Y *tomomichi. Runs for $3,658,771 after a $334,888 race last out.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/12 TOK 1¼m T October S.335k 3rd/18 — 14-1
8/30 NII 1¼m T Niigata Knn G3 9th/11 — 60-1
8/8 NII 1⅛m T Kanetsu S.289k 9th/16 — 16-1
9Ho O BiscuitsY. Iwata · T. OkumuraIwata · Okumura?29-1Fair 30-13%——?
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #13 · Tier ?
Jockey Yasunari Iwata · Trainer Takeshi Okumura 14% career
Yasunari Iwata takes over from Y *iwata in the saddle. A longer trip: 1 1/8 miles last out, 1 1/4 miles today.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 TOK 1⅛m T Mainichi Ok G2 2nd/17 — 29-1
8/16 SAP 1¼m T Sapporo Knn G2 10th/16 — 12-1
4/8 KAW 1 5/16 D Kawasaki1065k 11th/11 — —
10Nebra DiskY. Kawada · Y. FukunagaKawada · Fukunaga?23-1Fair 20-15%——?
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier ?
Jockey Yuga Kawada 14% career · Trainer Yuichi Fukunaga
60D LAYOFFWON LAST
Last start was a win, in a 14-horse race at KOK at 1.4-1. Returns from a 119-day break.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
7/4 KOK 1⅛m T Hakata S.220k Won/14 — 1.4-1
4/26 KYO 1⅛m T Cntnnl Prk223k 2nd/18 — 1.0-1
2/15 KYO 1⅛m T Ksug Tkubt197k Won/11 — 0.7-1
11Shake Your HeartY. Furukawa · T. MiyaFurukawa · Miya?19-1Fair 20-14%——?
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #10 · Tier ?
Jockey Yoshihiro Furukawa · Trainer Toru Miya
Also today · Trainer this race: Tagano Dude 56-1
60D LAYOFFWON LAST
Winner of a 16-horse race at SAP last time. Runs for $3,658,771 after a $841,082 race last out.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/16 SAP 1¼m T Sapporo Knn G2 Won/16 — 5.8-1
6/14 HSN 1⅜m T Tkrzuk Knn G1 14th/18 — 83-1
3/15 CYO 1¼m T Tk TV H Knk G2 Won/14 — 12-1
12Cosmo KurandaY. Tannai · S. KatoTannai · Kato?23-1Fair 30-13%——?
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #12 · Tier ?
Jockey Yuji Tannai · Trainer Shizuya Kato 14% career
Shizuya Kato takes over the training from S *kato. Shortens up to 1 1/4 miles after going 1 3/8 miles.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/20 NAK 1⅜m T Snk Sh All G2 11th/13 — 2.6-1
6/14 HSN 1⅜m T Tkrzuk Knn G1 4th/18 — 41-1
3/28 NAK 12.4273f T Nikkei Sho G2 7th/15 — 1.8-1
13Realize SiriusA. Tsumura · T. TezukaTsumura · Tezuka?15-1Fair 20-15%——?
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier ?
Jockey Akihide Tsumura 14% career · Trainer Takahisa Tezuka 14% career
Also today · Trainer this race: Masquerade Ball 3-1
Purse goes from $808,916 to $3,658,771, a step up. Stretches out from 1 1/8 miles to 1 1/4 miles.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 TOK 1⅛m T Mainichi Ok G2 7th/17 — 1.9-1
5/31 TOK 1½m T Tky Yushun G1 7th/18 — 4.7-1
4/19 NAK 1¼m T Stsuk Sh Jp G1 2nd/18 — 5.2-1
14Tagano DudeM. Demuro · T. MiyaDemuro · Miya?56-1Fair 50-12%——?
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #15 · Tier ?
Jockey M Demuro 32% career · Trainer Toru Miya
Also today · Trainer this race: Shake Your Heart 19-1
Gets a new rider, M Demuro replacing Y *furukawa. New trainer: T *miya had it last time, Toru Miya now.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/12 HSN 1¼m T Chllng Cup G3 11th/16 — 7.5-1
6/14 HSN 1⅜m T Tkrzuk Knn G1 5th/18 — 58-1
5/3 KYO 2m T Tnn Sh Sprn G1 6th/15 — 27-1
15Sakura FarrelD. Sasaki · N. HoriSasaki · Hori?13-1Fair 15-16%——?
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier ?
Jockey Daisuke Sasaki 14% career · Trainer Noriyuki Hori 14% career
60D LAYOFF
2 wins from 3 starts at this distance. Off 76 days since the last start.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/16 SAP 1¼m T Sapporo Knn G2 2nd/16 — 8.2-1
5/9 TOK 1⅛m T Epsom Cup G3 5th/17 — 1.7-1
2/22 TOK 1¼m T Jpn Cup 20230k Won/14 — 1.4-1
16GiovanniLSK. Matsuyama · H. SugiyamaMatsuyama · Sugiyama?19-1Fair 15-16%——?LS
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier ?
LS
Longshot read: 19-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Kohei Matsuyama · Trainer Haruki Sugiyama
Also today · Trainer this race: Elton Barows 56-1
WON LAST
Comes in off a victory in a 16-horse race at HSN. Purse goes from $532,792 to $3,658,771, a step up.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/12 HSN 1¼m T Chllng Cup G3 Won/16 — 6.1-1
7/19 KOK 1¼m T Kokura Kine G3 2nd/18 — 1.6-1
4/26 *ST 1¼m T Fwd Qun Elz G1 5th/8 — 100-1
17Danon DecileK. Tosaki · S. YasudaTosaki · Yasuda?17-2Fair 8-110%——?3
Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier ?
Jockey Keita Tosaki 14% career · Trainer Shogo Yasuda 14% career
60D LAYOFF
139 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Back to 1 1/4 miles off a 1 3/8 miles race.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
6/14 HSN 1⅜m T Tkrzuk Knn G1 3rd/18 — 6.0-1
4/5 HSN 1¼m T Osaka Hai G1 3rd/15 — 2.9-1
12/28 NAK 12.4273f T Arm Knn (Th G1 3rd/16 — 2.8-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
6/14	HSN	1⅜m T	Tkrzuk Knn G1	2nd/18	—	1.5-1
5/3	KYO	2m T	Tnn Sh Sprn G1	Won/15	—	0.8-1
4/5	HSN	1¼m T	Osaka Hai G1	Won/15	—	1.5-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
10/4	TOK	1⅛m T	Mainichi Ok G2	9th/17	—	34-1
7/26	NII	1m T	Sekiya Kine G3	5th/14	—	7.9-1
6/21	HSN	1m T	Shirasagi S G3	Won/18	—	12-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
9/20	NAK	1⅜m T	Snk Sh All G2	4th/13	—	2.1-1
6/14	HSN	1⅜m T	Tkrzuk Knn G1	7th/18	—	6.8-1
12/28	NAK	12.4273f T	Arm Knn (Th G1	4th/16	—	2.3-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
10/4	TOK	1⅛m T	Mainichi Ok G2	3rd/17	—	19-1
8/16	SAP	1¼m T	Sapporo Knn G2	3rd/16	—	35-1
7/12	HAK	1⅛m T	Tomoe Sho282k	10th/14	—	6.5-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
10/4	TOK	1⅛m T	Mainichi Ok G2	13th/17	—	138-1
6/7	TOK	1m T	Yasuda Kine G1	12th/17	—	35-1
4/26	KYO	1m T	Ymur Mlrs C G2	9th/18	—	38-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
10/4	TOK	1⅛m T	Mainichi Ok G2	Won/17	—	10-1
6/7	TOK	1m T	Yasuda Kine G1	4th/17	—	10-1
4/5	HSN	1¼m T	Osaka Hai G1	5th/15	—	64-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
7/25	ASC	1½m T	Kng Grg V A G1	7th/9	—	6.5-1
4/26	*ST	1¼m T	Fwd Qun Elz G1	2nd/8	—	5.0-1
11/30	TOK	1½m T	Japan Cup G1	2nd/17	—	1.5-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
10/12	TOK	1¼m T	October S.335k	3rd/18	—	14-1
8/30	NII	1¼m T	Niigata Knn G3	9th/11	—	60-1
8/8	NII	1⅛m T	Kanetsu S.289k	9th/16	—	16-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
10/4	TOK	1⅛m T	Mainichi Ok G2	2nd/17	—	29-1
8/16	SAP	1¼m T	Sapporo Knn G2	10th/16	—	12-1
4/8	KAW	1 5/16 D	Kawasaki1065k	11th/11	—	—

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
7/4	KOK	1⅛m T	Hakata S.220k	Won/14	—	1.4-1
4/26	KYO	1⅛m T	Cntnnl Prk223k	2nd/18	—	1.0-1
2/15	KYO	1⅛m T	Ksug Tkubt197k	Won/11	—	0.7-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
8/16	SAP	1¼m T	Sapporo Knn G2	Won/16	—	5.8-1
6/14	HSN	1⅜m T	Tkrzuk Knn G1	14th/18	—	83-1
3/15	CYO	1¼m T	Tk TV H Knk G2	Won/14	—	12-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
9/20	NAK	1⅜m T	Snk Sh All G2	11th/13	—	2.6-1
6/14	HSN	1⅜m T	Tkrzuk Knn G1	4th/18	—	41-1
3/28	NAK	12.4273f T	Nikkei Sho G2	7th/15	—	1.8-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
10/4	TOK	1⅛m T	Mainichi Ok G2	7th/17	—	1.9-1
5/31	TOK	1½m T	Tky Yushun G1	7th/18	—	4.7-1
4/19	NAK	1¼m T	Stsuk Sh Jp G1	2nd/18	—	5.2-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
9/12	HSN	1¼m T	Chllng Cup G3	11th/16	—	7.5-1
6/14	HSN	1⅜m T	Tkrzuk Knn G1	5th/18	—	58-1
5/3	KYO	2m T	Tnn Sh Sprn G1	6th/15	—	27-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
8/16	SAP	1¼m T	Sapporo Knn G2	2nd/16	—	8.2-1
5/9	TOK	1⅛m T	Epsom Cup G3	5th/17	—	1.7-1
2/22	TOK	1¼m T	Jpn Cup 20230k	Won/14	—	1.4-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
9/12	HSN	1¼m T	Chllng Cup G3	Won/16	—	6.1-1
7/19	KOK	1¼m T	Kokura Kine G3	2nd/18	—	1.6-1
4/26	*ST	1¼m T	Fwd Qun Elz G1	5th/8	—	100-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
6/14	HSN	1⅜m T	Tkrzuk Knn G1	3rd/18	—	6.0-1
4/5	HSN	1¼m T	Osaka Hai G1	3rd/15	—	2.9-1
12/28	NAK	12.4273f T	Arm Knn (Th G1	3rd/16	—	2.8-1

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

SWN · RACE 2

UPCOMING

Grade 1 Stakes · $3,658,771 purse

Field

17 runners

Purse

$3,658,771

Post

1:40 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#1 · 21%

Stakes, for 3-year-olds and up.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #1 Croix Du Nord (a tactical type, M/L 5-2). It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #7 Masquerade Ball at 3-1. Use #17 Danon Decile in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #1 CROIX DU NORD (5-2) — our number agrees.
#1 CROIX DU NORD — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (22.5% to their 22.7%).
#7 MASQUERADE BALL — our #2 number, about right at the windows (19.0% to their 19.9%).
#17 DANON DECILE — our #3 number, a price play — we're at 8.9%, the board 8.4%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #10 NEBRA DISK (23-1) — our fair 3.8% is above the morning line's 3.3%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Croix Du Nord, #2 Elton Barows, #3 Regaleira.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Croix Du Nord2Elton Barows3Regaleira4Readiness5Champagne Color6Seiun Hades7Masquerade Ball8Jun Blossom9Ho O Biscuits10Nebra Disk11Shake Your Heart12Cosmo Kuranda13Realize Sirius14Tagano Dude15Sakura Farrel16Giovanni17Danon Decile

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Croix Du Nord

Elton Barows

Regaleira

Readiness

Champagne Color

Seiun Hades

Masquerade Ball

Jun Blossom

Ho O Biscuits

Nebra Disk

Shake Your Heart

Cosmo Kuranda

Realize Sirius

Tagano Dude

Sakura Farrel

Giovanni

Danon Decile

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