R3 BCA · B.C. Turf Stakes (G1)

8:36 PM ET · 1 1/2 Miles Turf · $5,000,000 · 16 runners8:36 PM · 12f Turf · 16 runners

Upcoming $5000K · B.C. Turf Stakes (G1)

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #6 Burnham Square (8-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 113 from 3 tries. Not in our top three.

1Ethical Diamond▲D. McMonagle · W. MullinsMcMonagle · MullinsA103 105@trip 10510-1Fair 15-16%—103 105@trip 105A▲ Last fig 103 at/above par 90
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #8 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 105 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 103 105
▲ Last fig 103 at/above par 90
Jockey Dylan Browne McMonagle · Trainer William P Mullins 34% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Red Letter 12-1
Runs for $5,000,000 after a $2,000,000 race last out. 2nd last time, 1 length back, in a field of 9.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/5 KD 1½m T TurfCup G2 2nd/9 -1L 103 2.3-1 3-2w;angld out;2nd bst
8/6 LEP 1½m T Ballyroan S G3 Won/7 — 1.1-1
6/20 ASC 1½m T Hardwicke S G2 9th/12 — 8.5-1
2Benvenuto CelliniR. Moore · A. O'BrienMoore · O'Brien?6-1Fair 12-18%——?
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier ?
Jockey Ryan L Moore 14% career · Trainer Aidan P O'Brien 25% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Precise 7-2, R2: Puerto Rico 10-1 · Trainer R1: Precise 7-2, R2: True Love 8-1, R2: Puerto Rico 10-1, this race: Diamond Necklace 3-1
New trainer: A P *o'brien had it last time, Aidan P O'Brien now. Finished 9th last time in a 16-horse race at LCH.
EVEN PACE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 LCH 1½m T Qtr l'rc Tr G1 9th/16 — —
9/6 LCH 1½m T Qatar Niel G2 5th/7 — —
7/25 ASC 1½m T Kng Grg V A G1 3rd/9 — 4.0-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/5	KD	1½m T	TurfCup G2	2nd/9 -1L	103	2.3-1	3-2w;angld out;2nd bst
8/6	LEP	1½m T	Ballyroan S G3	Won/7	—	1.1-1
6/20	ASC	1½m T	Hardwicke S G2	9th/12	—	8.5-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
10/4	LCH	1½m T	Qtr l'rc Tr G1	9th/16	—	—
9/6	LCH	1½m T	Qatar Niel G2	5th/7	—	—
7/25	ASC	1½m T	Kng Grg V A G1	3rd/9	—	4.0-1

3Minaret Station▲J. Ortiz · W. WaldenOrtiz · WaldenC101 101 94▲+6@trip 10115-1Fair 15-16%▲ Up +6 · career best101 101 94@trip 101C▲ Last fig 101 at/above par 90

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 101 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 101 101 94

▲ Last fig 101 at/above par 90

Jockey Jose L Ortiz 37% career · Trainer William Walden 34% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Kathynmarissa 5-1, R2: Rhetorical 8-1 · Trainer R2: Rhetorical 8-1

WON LAST

A 101 in its last five clears the 90 par for this level. Last start was a win, in a 6-horse race at BEL at 5.9-1.

EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 7d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/1	BEL	1½m T	JoHrschT G1	Won/6 by hd	101	5.9-1	b	3-4w both trns; game
8/15	SAR	1½m T	CClmntTf G1	2nd/6	101	3.6-1	b	4w uppr; led; caught
7/11	SAR	1⅜m T	BwlnGrn G2	3rd/6 -4½L	94	2.2-1	b	Svd grnd;mvd out ins1F

4Far Bridge▲▼J. Velazquez · M. ClementVelazquez · ClementB100 105 97►≡@trip 10520-1Fair 20-14%► Steady100 105 97 ≡@trip 105B▲ Last fig 100 at/above par 90▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (100 vs 105)

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #10 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 97–105 · Best fig at today's trip 105 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 100 105 97

▲ Last fig 100 at/above par 90▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (100 vs 105)

Jockey J R Velazquez 34% career · Trainer Miguel Clement 35% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Gimme A Nother 10-1, R2: Formidable Man 15-1 · Trainer R2: Deterministic 8-1

4 wins from 8 starts at this distance. Purse goes from $500,000 to $5,000,000, a step up.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 8d ago)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/1	BEL	1½m T	JoHrschT G1	2nd/6 -¾L	100	6.8-1	Track 2-3w; battled on
3/28	GP	1½m T	PanAmer G3	Won/8 by 1½	105	1.2-1	Pocket;angld3w;in time
9/27	BAQ	1½m T	TfClssic G1	4th/5 -4L	97	6.5-1	2p1st;inside;no rally

5El Cordobes▲W. Buick · C. ApplebyBuick · ApplebyB98 103 100▼-5@trip 10715-1Fair 20-15%▼ Down -598 103 100@trip 107B▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 90
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 107 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 98 103 100
▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 90
Jockey William T Buick 23% career · Trainer Charles Appleby 27% career
Also today · Jockey R2: Notable Speech 7-5 · Trainer R2: Notable Speech 7-5
◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE
Purse goes from $500,000 to $5,000,000, a step up. Has run 107 against a 90 par for the class.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.
TROUBLED TRIP Up 1/4; checked 1/16p last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 35 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/1 BEL 1½m T JoHrschT G1 3rd/6 98 1.7-1 Up 1/4; checked 1/16p
2/14 DOH 1½m T H. H. Th Am G2 5th/7 — —
11/1 DMR 1½m T BCTurf G1 3rd/14 -2L 103 18-1 Paused 5/16;gained3rd

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/1	BEL	1½m T	JoHrschT G1	3rd/6	98	1.7-1	Up 1/4; checked 1/16p
2/14	DOH	1½m T	H. H. Th Am G2	5th/7	—	—
11/1	DMR	1½m T	BCTurf G1	3rd/14 -2L	103	18-1	Paused 5/16;gained3rd

6Burnham Square▲★B. Hernandez Jr. · I. WilkesHernandez Jr. · WilkesA96 95 97▼-6@trip 1138-1Fair 12-18%▼ Down -696 95 97@trip 113A▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 90★ Best at the trip 113

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 113 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 96 95 97

▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 90★ Best at the trip 113

Jockey B J Jr Hernandez 38% career · Trainer Ian R Wilkes 27% career

Also today · Jockey R2: Brilliant Berti 30-1

4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

Owns the highest recent figure here at 113. Has won 2 of 3 going today's distance.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Midpck 5w; faded), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 25; 4 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/5	KD	1½m T	TurfCup G2	7th/9 -6½L	96	1.5-1	b	Midpck 5w;faded
8/1	CNL	1¼m T	ArlMilon G1	Won/7 by ½	95	0.8-1	b	2-3p;4w1/4p;lng drv;up
6/13	CD	1⅜m T	Chrlywood Stk	Won/8 by hd	97	0.1-1	b	2p;dug in3rd;tenacious

7Hotazhell▲S. Foley · J. HarringtonFoley · HarringtonC10215-1Fair 20-14%—102C▲ Last fig 102 at/above par 90
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #13 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 102
▲ Last fig 102 at/above par 90
Jockey Shane Foley 14% career · Trainer Jessica Harrington 14% career
WON LAST
A longer trip: 1 1/4 miles last out, 1 1/2 miles today. Changes barns, from John Mrs *harrington to Jessica Harrington.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/12 LEP 1¼m T Ryl Bhrn Ir G1 Won/8 — 50-1
7/26 *MC 1¼m T Grssr Dllmy G1 Won/10 — —
6/28 CGH 1¼m T Dub Duty Fr G3 3rd/7 — 6.0-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
9/12	LEP	1¼m T	Ryl Bhrn Ir G1	Won/8	—	50-1
7/26	*MC	1¼m T	Grssr Dllmy G1	Won/10	—	—
6/28	CGH	1¼m T	Dub Duty Fr G3	3rd/7	—	6.0-1

8Test Score▲M. Franco · H. MotionFranco · MotionC101 91 99▲▲+930-1Fair 30-13%▲▲ Big jump +9101 91 99C▲ Last fig 101 at/above par 90

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #14 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · Last 3 figs 101 91 99

▲ Last fig 101 at/above par 90

Jockey Manuel Franco 33% career · Trainer H Graham Motion 35% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Thought Process 15-1, R2: Facteur Cheval 30-1 · Trainer R1: Gimme A Nother 10-1

60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST

Winner of an 11-horse race at DMR last time. A 63-day gap since its last race.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 7d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/29	DMR	1⅜m T	DelMarH G2	Won/11 by 1½	101	2.6-1	b	Ins;gained2-3w3rd;game
8/1	CNL	1¼m T	ArlMilon G1	6th/7 -4L	91	3.5-1	b	Ins-3p;idled3/16;beltd
6/6	SAR	1 3/16 T	Manhttn G1	2nd/9 -3½L	99	16-1	b	Ins;2p out1/4;gaining

9Johanna WalshM. Barzalona · J. O'BrienBarzalona · O'Brien?12-1Fair 20-14%——?
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #11 · Tier ?
Jockey Mickael Barzalona 14% career · Trainer Joseph Patrick O'Brien 25% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Evershed 30-1
60D LAYOFF
Joseph Patrick O'Brien takes over the training from Joseph P *o'brien. Carries 119 pounds, 7 less than last time.
EVEN PACE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/20 YOR 1½m T Lgnds Glbl G1 6th/9 — 5.0-1
7/18 CGH 1½m T Juddmnt Irs G1 Won/10 — 3.5-1
6/18 ASC 1½m T Rbblsdl S. G2 2nd/12 — 9.0-1
10Tiffany▲L. Morris · S. PrescottMorris · PrescottA105@trip 10510-1Fair 7-112%—105@trip 105A▲ Last fig 105 at/above par 902
Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 105 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 105
▲ Last fig 105 at/above par 90
Jockey Luke Morris 14% career · Trainer Sir Mark Prescott 14% career
WON LAST
Has won 3 of 8 going today's distance. Comes in off a victory in a 9-horse race at KD.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/5 KD 1½m T TurfCup G2 Won/9 105 7.0-1 Ins;surged;held clear
8/9 *HP 1½m T Wstmnstr 13 G1 Won/10 — —
7/4 NKT 1½m T Btwy Lncshr G2 2nd/9 — 1.2-1
11Survie▲LSF. Prat · G. BougheyPrat · BougheyB102 96@trip 10215-1Fair 15-17%—102 96@trip 102B▲ Last fig 102 at/above par 90LS
Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 102 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 102 96
▲ Last fig 102 at/above par 90LS
Longshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 7% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Flavien Prat 40% career · Trainer George Boughey 14% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Stellify 12-1, R2: Zulu Kingdom 15-1
Off 55 days since the last start. Runs for $5,000,000 after a $697,184 race last out.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 83 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/6 LCH 1½m T Qatar Vrmll G1 10th/13 — —
8/15 SAR 1½m T CClmntTf G1 Won/6 by 2¼ 102 4.5-1 6w upper; good kick
8/2 SAR 1½m T GlenFls G2 Won/9 by 2 96 2.4-1 Ins-2path;mvd out3/16
12Diamond NecklaceC. Soumillon · A. O'BrienSoumillon · O'Brien?3-1Fair 7-113%——?1
Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #1 · Tier ?
Jockey C Soumillon 14% career · Trainer Aidan P O'Brien 25% career
Also today · Trainer R1: Precise 7-2, R2: True Love 8-1, R2: Puerto Rico 10-1, this race: Benvenuto Cellini 6-1
New trainer: A P *o'brien had it last time, Aidan P O'Brien now. Finished 3rd last time in a 16-horse race at LCH.
EVEN PACE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 LCH 1½m T Qtr l'rc Tr G1 3rd/16 — —
8/23 DVL 1¼m T Sumb Jn Et G1 2nd/10 — —
7/30 GWD 1¼m T Qtr Nssu S. G1 Won/5 — 0.7-1
13Bay City RollerO. Murphy · G. ScottMurphy · Scott?5-1Fair 10-110%——?3
Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #3 · Tier ?
Jockey Oisin Murphy 24% career · Trainer George Scott 21% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Bless The Broken 20-1, R2: Lugal 30-1
Goes 1 1/2 miles after running 1 1/4 miles last time. Sheds 7 pounds from its last start.
EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/17 ASC 1¼m T Qtr Rcng Ch G1 3rd/6 — 8.5-1
10/4 LCH 1½m T Qtr l'rc Tr G1 2nd/16 — —
9/6 LCH 1½m T Qatar Foy G2 2nd/4 — —
14Deep MonsterT. Marquand · Y. IkeeMarquand · Ikee?30-1Fair 50-12%——?
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #16 · Tier ?
Jockey Tom Marquand 14% career · Trainer Yasutoshi Ikee 14% career
Jockey switch: S. *hamanaka last out, Tom Marquand today. Purse goes from $808,916 to $5,000,000, a step up.
EVEN PACE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 7d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 KYO 1½m T Kyoto Dshtn G2 4th/18 — 4.6-1
5/24 *ST 1½m T Stndrd Chrt G1 3rd/9 — 10-1
2/14 DOH 1½m T H. H. Th Am G2 Won/7 — —
15Map of StarsJ. Doyle · F. GraffardDoyle · Graffard?20-1Fair 50-12%——?
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #15 · Tier ?
Jockey James Doyle 24% career · Trainer Francis - Henri Graffard 14% career
60D LAYOFF
Stretches out from 1 1/4 miles to 1 1/2 miles. Off 77 days since the last start.
EVEN PACE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/15 DVL 1¼m T Gntut-Brn H G3 2nd/8 — —
6/16 ASC 1¼m T Wolferton165k Won/16 — 6.5-1
5/3 LCH 1½m T d'Hedouvill G3 5th/6 — —

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
8/20	YOR	1½m T	Lgnds Glbl G1	6th/9	—	5.0-1
7/18	CGH	1½m T	Juddmnt Irs G1	Won/10	—	3.5-1
6/18	ASC	1½m T	Rbblsdl S. G2	2nd/12	—	9.0-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/5	KD	1½m T	TurfCup G2	Won/9	105	7.0-1	Ins;surged;held clear
8/9	*HP	1½m T	Wstmnstr 13 G1	Won/10	—	—
7/4	NKT	1½m T	Btwy Lncshr G2	2nd/9	—	1.2-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/6	LCH	1½m T	Qatar Vrmll G1	10th/13	—	—
8/15	SAR	1½m T	CClmntTf G1	Won/6 by 2¼	102	4.5-1	6w upper; good kick
8/2	SAR	1½m T	GlenFls G2	Won/9 by 2	96	2.4-1	Ins-2path;mvd out3/16

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
10/4	LCH	1½m T	Qtr l'rc Tr G1	3rd/16	—	—
8/23	DVL	1¼m T	Sumb Jn Et G1	2nd/10	—	—
7/30	GWD	1¼m T	Qtr Nssu S. G1	Won/5	—	0.7-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
10/17	ASC	1¼m T	Qtr Rcng Ch G1	3rd/6	—	8.5-1
10/4	LCH	1½m T	Qtr l'rc Tr G1	2nd/16	—	—
9/6	LCH	1½m T	Qatar Foy G2	2nd/4	—	—

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
10/4	KYO	1½m T	Kyoto Dshtn G2	4th/18	—	4.6-1
5/24	*ST	1½m T	Stndrd Chrt G1	3rd/9	—	10-1
2/14	DOH	1½m T	H. H. Th Am G2	Won/7	—	—

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
8/15	DVL	1¼m T	Gntut-Brn H G3	2nd/8	—	—
6/16	ASC	1¼m T	Wolferton165k	Won/16	—	6.5-1
5/3	LCH	1½m T	d'Hedouvill G3	5th/6	—	—

16TelescopicL. Saez · V. OliverSaez · OliverC89 102 84►@trip 10230-1Fair 20-14%► Steady89 102 84@trip 102C

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 102 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 89 102 84

Jockey Luis Saez 36% career · Trainer Victoria Oliver 26% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Expensive Queen 15-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST

Worked 4F in :47.40 on Aug 27, 2nd of 22 at the distance. Has run 102 against a 90 par for the class.

EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 6d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/27	CD	1⅜m T	OC 80k n2x	Won/8	89	1.2-1	L	3-2w;press;vied;cleard
9/6	KD	1½m T	Alw n1x	Won/11	102	3.0-1	L	3-4w;kicked clear
7/17	ELP	1¼m T	Alw n1x	2nd/10 -2¼L	84	2.0-1	L	Ins;4p1/4;5-6p1/8;rlly

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #3, #4.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

BCA · RACE 3

UPCOMING

B.C. Turf Stakes (G1)

Field

16 runners

Purse

$5,000,000

Post

8:36 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#12 · 13%

Stakes, for 3-year-olds and up.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #12 Diamond Necklace (a tactical type, M/L 3-1). It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #10 Tiffany at 10-1. Use #13 Bay City Roller in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #12 DIAMOND NECKLACE (3-1) — our number agrees.
#12 DIAMOND NECKLACE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (15.9% to their 18.2%).
#13 BAY CITY ROLLER — our #3 number, about right at the windows (11.4% to their 12.2%).
#2 BENVENUTO CELLINI — our #5 number, about right at the windows (9.5% to their 10.4%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #10 TIFFANY (10-1) — our fair 8.3% is above the morning line's 6.6%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #3 Minaret Station; pressure from #4 Far Bridge.

Lead

none

Press

3Minaret Station804Far Bridge79

Stalk

8Test Score8410Tiffany835El Cordobes8116Telescopic6611Survie

1Ethical Diamond816Burnham Square787Hotazhell

No style yet

2Benvenuto Cellini9Johanna Walsh12Diamond Necklace13Bay City Roller14Deep Monster15Map Of Stars

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Test Score

Tiffany

El Cordobes

Minaret Station

Far Bridge

Telescopic

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Ethical Diamond

Burnham Square

Hotazhell

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