R1 BCT · B.C. Juvenile Turf (G1)

8:35 PM ET · 1 Mile Turf · $1,000,000 · 15 runners8:35 PM · 1m Turf · 15 runners

Upcoming $1000K · B.C. Juvenile Turf (G1)

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1InductionLSJ. Alvarado · H. MotionAlvarado · MotionC87 74@trip 8730-1Fair 30-13%—87 74@trip 87CLS
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #12 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 87 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 74
LS
Longshot read: 30-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 3% against a line of 2%. A read, not a bet.
Jockey Junior Alvarado 34% career · Trainer H Graham Motion 35% career ★ hot
Also today · Trainer R2: Test Score 30-1
◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS
Purse goes from $500,000 to $1,000,000, a step up. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.
EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.
TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Swung 6w; carried out. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 6d ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/12 WO 1m T Summer G1 3rd/8 -3¼L 87 19-1 Swung 6w;carried out
8/9 CNL 1m T MSW Won/10 74 4.8-1 3w;4w upr;drew off
2Avec ToiF. Prat · C. HeadPrat · Head?10-1Fair 15-17%——?
Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #4 · Tier ?
Jockey Flavien Prat 40% career · Trainer Christopher Head 14% career
Also today · Jockey R2: Survie 15-1
New trainer: C *head had it last time, Christopher Head now. Runs for $1,000,000 after a $450,350 race last out.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 LCH 6.95909f T Qtr Jn-luc G1 6th/10 — —
9/6 LCH 6.95909f T Qatar Rchtt G3 Won/5 — —
8/16 DVL 6.95909f T Th Ag Khn S G3 Won/5 — —
3Florida BayW. Lordan · A. O'BrienLordan · O'Brien?20-1Fair 20-14%——?
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #10 · Tier ?
Jockey W Lordan 14% career · Trainer Aidan P O'Brien 25% career
Also today · Trainer this race: Haffner 8-1, this race: Man's Best Friend 15-1, this race: Great Barrier Reef 4-1, R2: Benvenuto Cellini 6-1 +1 more
Changes barns, from A P *o'brien to Aidan P O'Brien. A longer trip: 7 furlongs last out, a mile today.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 LCH 6.95909f T Qtr Jn-luc G1 4th/10 — —
9/13 CGH 7f T Gffs Vncnt G1 3rd/8 — 12-1
8/22 CGH 7f T Clmr Stud C G2 2nd/6 — 2.2-1
4HaffnerC. Soumillon · A. O'BrienSoumillon · O'Brien?8-1Fair 15-17%——?
Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #13 · Tier ?
Jockey C Soumillon 14% career · Trainer Aidan P O'Brien 25% career
Also today · Jockey R2: Diamond Necklace 3-1 · Trainer this race: Florida Bay 20-1, this race: Man's Best Friend 15-1, this race: Great Barrier Reef 4-1, R2: Benvenuto Cellini 6-1 +1 more
WON LAST
Comes in off a victory in a 7-horse race at NKT. Runs for $1,000,000 after a $162,880 race last out.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/26 NKT 1m T Tttrslls On G2 Won/7 — 1.8-1
9/13 CGH 7f T Gffs Vncnt G1 7th/8 — 8.0-1
8/19 YOR 7f T Tttrslls Ac G3 Won/10 — 1.4-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/12	WO	1m T	Summer G1	3rd/8 -3¼L	87	19-1		Swung 6w;carried out
8/9	CNL	1m T	MSW	Won/10	74	4.8-1		3w;4w upr;drew off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
10/4	LCH	6.95909f T	Qtr Jn-luc G1	6th/10	—	—
9/6	LCH	6.95909f T	Qatar Rchtt G3	Won/5	—	—
8/16	DVL	6.95909f T	Th Ag Khn S G3	Won/5	—	—

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
10/4	LCH	6.95909f T	Qtr Jn-luc G1	4th/10	—	—
9/13	CGH	7f T	Gffs Vncnt G1	3rd/8	—	12-1
8/22	CGH	7f T	Clmr Stud C G2	2nd/6	—	2.2-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
9/26	NKT	1m T	Tttrslls On G2	Won/7	—	1.8-1
9/13	CGH	7f T	Gffs Vncnt G1	7th/8	—	8.0-1
8/19	YOR	7f T	Tttrslls Ac G3	Won/10	—	1.4-1

5How's Al TodayB. Hernandez Jr. · R. MottHernandez Jr. · MottA80 97 72▼-3↕@trip 803-1Fair 5-116%▼ Down -380 97 72 ↕@trip 80A2

Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 72–97 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 97 72

Jockey B J Jr Hernandez 38% career · Trainer Riley Mott 34% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Burnham Square 8-1

4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 97, with 90 next best. Won last out in a 12-horse race at KD.

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 4 works in 30d, last 6d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/9	KD	1m T	JuvMile Stk	Won/12	80	2.6-1	Trck 3w;tip out;surged
8/29	KD	6½f T	Alw b	Won/9	97	2.5-1	Angld 4-5p;full of run
8/1	SAR	6½f D	SarSpcl G2	3rd/6 -7L	72	4.4-1	3p trn;5p1/4;best rest

6PikachuD. Egan · C. JohnstonEgan · Johnston?30-1Fair 50-12%——?
Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #15 · Tier ?
Jockey David Egan 27% career · Trainer Charlie Johnston 29% career
Cuts back from 1 1/8 miles to a mile. A 48-day gap since its last race.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/12 LEP 1⅛m T HKJC Wrld P G1 4th/9 — 14-1
8/21 HMP 1 1/16 T MSW Won/3 — 0.0-1
7/28 GWD 7f T Crl Vntg S. G2 4th/6 — 6.0-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
9/12	LEP	1⅛m T	HKJC Wrld P G1	4th/9	—	14-1
8/21	HMP	1 1/16 T	MSW	Won/3	—	0.0-1
7/28	GWD	7f T	Crl Vntg S. G2	4th/6	—	6.0-1

7Let Em KnowE. Zayas · D. BeckmanZayas · BeckmanA87 86 83▲▲+10↕@trip 8620-1Fair 20-14%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best87 86 83 ↕@trip 86A

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #11 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 63–87 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 86 83

Jockey Edgard J Zayas 37% career · Trainer D Whitworth Beckman 29% career

WON LAST

Winner of an 11-horse race at BEL last time. Purse goes from $250,000 to $1,000,000, a step up.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 7d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/3	BEL	1 1/16 T	Pilgrim G2	Won/11 by hd	87	13-1	6-4p1st;3p2nd;rallied
9/12	WO	1m T	Summer G1	5th/8 -1¾L	86	15-1	Insd;tight 1/8;kept on
8/16	SAR	1 1/16 T	MSW	Won/11	83	16-1	4-3w 1st trn; gamely

8Liam's Law▲J. Ortiz · T. PletcherOrtiz · PletcherB89 77 70▲▲+1620-1Fair 15-16%▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best89 77 70B▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 893

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best · Last 3 figs 89 77 70

▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 89

Jockey Jose L Ortiz 37% career · Trainer Todd A Pletcher 37% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Minaret Station 15-1

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST

Has moved up each time out, 70 to 77 to 89. Led at the first call last time.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 3 works in 30d and the last 7 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/5	SAR	1 1/16 T	WAntcptn G3	Won/3	89	1.4-1	Ins;3p1/4;drft in;held
7/12	SAR	1 1/16 T	MSW	Won/10	77	2.1-1	Brush gate; held well
5/24	BAQ	5½f D	MSW	4th/6 -15L	70	5.7-1	Stdy7/16;4-3p;no rally

9Sale SharkO. Murphy · H. PalmerMurphy · Palmer?30-1Fair 30-13%——?
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #14 · Tier ?
Jockey Oisin Murphy 24% career · Trainer Hugo Palmer 23% career
Also today · Jockey R2: Bay City Roller 5-1
Hugo Palmer takes over the training from Hugo *palmer. Carries 122 pounds, 7 less than last time.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/11 DON 6f T Crlsbrg Dns G2 6th/11 — 7.0-1
8/22 YOR 5f T Jul Grvs R134k Won/11 — 8.5-1
7/29 GWD 5f T Vuv Clcqut G3 4th/11 — 4.5-1
10Folsom BluesD. McMonagle · J. O'BrienMcMonagle · O'Brien?7-2Fair 7-113%——?
Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #6 · Tier ?
Jockey Dylan Browne McMonagle · Trainer Joseph Patrick O'Brien 25% career
Also today · Jockey R2: Ethical Diamond 10-1 · Trainer R2: Johanna Walsh 12-1
Purse goes from $450,350 to $1,000,000, a step up. Sheds 4 pounds from its last start.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 LCH 6.95909f T Qtr Jn-luc G1 2nd/10 — —
9/13 CGH 7f T Gffs Vncnt G1 Won/8 — 5.5-1
8/9 CGH 6f T Knlnd Phnx G1 2nd/8 — 7.5-1
11Man's Best FriendC. Keane · A. O'BrienKeane · O'Brien?15-1Fair 20-15%——?
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier ?
Jockey Colin T Keane 14% career · Trainer Aidan P O'Brien 25% career
Also today · Trainer this race: Florida Bay 20-1, this race: Haffner 8-1, this race: Great Barrier Reef 4-1, R2: Benvenuto Cellini 6-1 +1 more
Jockey switch: R L *moore last out, Colin T Keane today. Goes a mile after running 7 furlongs last time.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 LCH 6.95909f T Qtr Jn-luc G1 3rd/10 — —
8/23 DVL 5.96364f T Sumbe Morny G1 4th/7 — —
7/30 GWD 6f T Mrkl Rchmnd G2 Won/10 — 5.5-1
12OscarW. Buick · M. ClementBuick · ClementA88 76@trip 8815-1Fair 12-17%—88 76@trip 88A1
Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 88 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 88 76
Jockey William T Buick 23% career · Trainer Miguel Clement 35% career
Also today · Jockey R2: El Cordobes 15-1 · Trainer R2: Far Bridge 20-1
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK
The Oct 21 work, 5F in 1:02.20, was the best time at that distance that morning. 2nd of 8 at 5F on Oct 2, in 1:02.40.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 21 (5F in 1:02.20), 3 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/12 WO 1m T Summer G1 2nd/8 -1½L 88 2.9-1 Brief bid 3/16;drift
8/8 SAR 1 1/16 T MSW Won/9 by hd 76 2.4-1 Beh foe to 3/16; held

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
9/11	DON	6f T	Crlsbrg Dns G2	6th/11	—	7.0-1
8/22	YOR	5f T	Jul Grvs R134k	Won/11	—	8.5-1
7/29	GWD	5f T	Vuv Clcqut G3	4th/11	—	4.5-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
10/4	LCH	6.95909f T	Qtr Jn-luc G1	2nd/10	—	—
9/13	CGH	7f T	Gffs Vncnt G1	Won/8	—	5.5-1
8/9	CGH	6f T	Knlnd Phnx G1	2nd/8	—	7.5-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
10/4	LCH	6.95909f T	Qtr Jn-luc G1	3rd/10	—	—
8/23	DVL	5.96364f T	Sumbe Morny G1	4th/7	—	—
7/30	GWD	6f T	Mrkl Rchmnd G2	Won/10	—	5.5-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/12	WO	1m T	Summer G1	2nd/8 -1½L	88	2.9-1		Brief bid 3/16;drift
8/8	SAR	1 1/16 T	MSW	Won/9 by hd	76	2.4-1		Beh foe to 3/16; held

13Agate▲T. Gaffalione · K. DannerGaffalione · DannerB90 72 79▲▲+15@trip 7910-1Fair 15-17%▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best90 72 79@trip 79B▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 89

Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +15 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 79 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 90 72 79

▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 89

Jockey Tyler Gaffalione 36% career · Trainer Kelsey Danner 35% career ★ hot

★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Last start was a win, in a 10-horse race at KEE at 3.6-1. Worked 3F in :36.20 on Sep 29, 3rd of 6 at the distance.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Ins; traffic 3/16; split), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 22; 2 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/4	KEE	1 1/16 T	Bourbon G2	Won/10 by 1	90	3.6-1	Ins;traffic 3/16;split
9/9	KD	1m T	JuvMile Stk	3rd/12 -4½L	72	5.6-1	Bad stp;bmp5/8;ins-2w
7/5	ELP	1m T	MSW	Won/11	79	3.6-1	2wd btw-ins;ridden out

14Great Barrier ReefR. Moore · A. O'BrienMoore · O'Brien?4-1Fair 8-112%——?
Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #7 · Tier ?
Jockey Ryan L Moore 14% career · Trainer Aidan P O'Brien 25% career
Also today · Jockey R2: Benvenuto Cellini 6-1 · Trainer this race: Florida Bay 20-1, this race: Haffner 8-1, this race: Man's Best Friend 15-1, R2: Benvenuto Cellini 6-1 +1 more
New trainer: Aidan *o'brien had it last time, Aidan P O'Brien now. Sheds 7 pounds from its last start.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/10 NKT 7f T Drly Dwhurs G1 3rd/5 — 7.5-1
8/29 CGH 6f T Hdr Fmly St G3 2nd/5 — 0.8-1
6/16 ASC 6f T Coventry S. G2 Won/21 — 6.0-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
10/10	NKT	7f T	Drly Dwhurs G1	3rd/5	—	7.5-1
8/29	CGH	6f T	Hdr Fmly St G3	2nd/5	—	0.8-1
6/16	ASC	6f T	Coventry S. G2	Won/21	—	6.0-1

15PopcornM. Franco · J. ThomasFranco · ThomasB85 86 65▲▲+1020-1Fair 20-14%▲▲ Big jump +1085 86 65B

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · Last 3 figs 85 86 65

Jockey Manuel Franco 33% career · Trainer Jonathan Thomas 36% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R2: Test Score 30-1

Was 9th of 10 at the first call last time. An 86 top number against a 89 par, so it fits the level.

EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 7d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
10/4	KEE	1 1/16 T	Bourbon G2	4th/10 -3¼L	85	5.6-1	Ins;traffc 6p1/8;wllng
9/7	CNL	1 1/16 T	KttensJoyB125k	Won/7	86	0.8-1	4wd move; kept to task
7/14	IND	7½f T	MSW	Won/7 by 1½	65	1.6-1	Stlk;4p3/8;bid1/4;drvg

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

BCT · RACE 1

UPCOMING

B.C. Juvenile Turf (G1)

Field

15 runners

Purse

$1,000,000

Post

8:35 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#12 · 7%

Stakes, for colts and geldings, 2-year-olds.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #12 Oscar (a presser/stalker, M/L 15-1). Recent figures: 88 · 76. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #5 How's Al Today at 3-1. Use #8 Liam's Law in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #5 HOW'S AL TODAY (3-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
#5 HOW'S AL TODAY — our #2 number, about right at the windows (18.5% to their 18.2%).
#10 FOLSOM BLUES — our #6 number, about right at the windows (14.8% to their 16.1%).
#14 GREAT BARRIER REEF — our #7 number, about right at the windows (13.4% to their 14.5%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #8 LIAM'S LAW (20-1) — our fair 4.1% is above the morning line's 3.5%; supported by: top barn (37%) + jockey (37%) at 20-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #8 Liam's Law; the shape helps #5 How's Al Today, #7 Let Em Know, #12 Oscar; and works against #2 Avec Toi, #3 Florida Bay, #4 Haffner.

Lead

8Liam's Law84

Press

none

Stalk

12Oscar905How's Al Today817Let Em Know81

1Induction8213Agate8115Popcorn76

No style yet

2Avec Toi3Florida Bay4Haffner6Pikachu9Sale Shark10Folsom Blues11Man's Best Friend14Great Barrier Reef

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Oscar

Liam's Law

How's Al Today

Let Em Know

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Induction

Agate

Popcorn

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