1Tweed▼M. Meneses · F. GutierrezMeneses · GutierrezC77 68 53▲▲+20↕8-1Fair 12-18%
▲▲ Big jump +20 · career best77 68 53 ↕C▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 86Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +20 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 50–77 · Last 3 figs 77 68 53
▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 86CLASS UPWON LASTWon last out in a 7-horse race at GP. Switches from turf to dirt.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 7)WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 28d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/9 GP 5f T Moc50000 Won/7 77 9.3-1 b Bmp brk;dug in;held 9/4 CNL 6f D MCL 30k 2nd/8 -1½L 68 4.4-1 b 2w;6w upr;held 2nd 8/9 CNL 5½f D MSW 8th/9 -2½L 53 16-1 Vied ins;steadily fade 2Road to Midnight▼D. Herrera · J. BraddyHerrera · BraddyB74 57 80▲+7↕4-1Fair 7-113%
▲ Up +774 57 80 ↕B▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 86Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +7 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 57–80 · Last 3 figs 74 57 80
▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 86Purse drops from $100,000 to $54,000 against its last start. Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 6)WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.80 on Jul 31 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/26 GP 5f T HlywdBchB100k 3rd/8 -1L 74 6.2-1 b Loomed; outkicked 8/10 GP 6f D sInSumatinB100k 5th/6 -13L 57 17-1 b Chased 3w; faded 7/13 GP 5f T MSW Won/6 80 3.6-1 b Pace; held sway 3Boyhood DreamJ. Torrealba · N. RamseyTorrealba · RamseyA76 85 75▼-3@trip 785-2Fair 5-230%
▼ Down -376 85 75@trip 78A1Card model 30% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 85 75
Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 85, with 82 next best. Shortens up to 5 furlongs after going 6½ furlongs.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 6)WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 8d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/18 PID 6½f D FDJMemJvB100k 5th/9 -6½L 76 5.7-1 b Stalked;2-3w turn;wknd 8/29 KD 6½f T JuvSprnt Stk 6th/11 -3¼L 85 18-1 b Inside;flattened out 8/10 GP 6f D sInSumatinB100k 2nd/6 -11L 75 11-1 b Rallied outside for 2d 4King Cousin B▼L. Reyes · B. LopezReyes · LopezA72 79 78▼-6@trip 787-2Fair 5-116%
▼ Down -672 79 78@trip 78A▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 863Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 79 78
▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 86Runs for $54,000 today after a $100,000 race last time. Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 8d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/26 GP 5f T HlywdBchB100k 4th/8 -2L 72 3.3-1 Stdy bid;not enough 8/1 GP 5f T MSW Won/5 by nk 79 0.5-1 Rally 3w;drove clear 6/26 GP 5f D MSW 2nd/5 -2L 78 4.3-1 Chsd;cued3w;missed 5Code Three▼J. Morelos · J. PinchinMorelos · PinchinB80@trip 8012-1Fair 15-16%
—80@trip 80B▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 86Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 80 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 80
▼ Best fig 80 is 5+ under today's par 863 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LASTComes in off a victory in a 6-horse maiden claiming $35,000 race at GP. A step up in company: maiden claiming $35,000 before, allowance optional claiming today.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 8d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/25 GP 5f D MCL 35k Won/6 80 4.2-1 Cued 2p5/16;5p stretch 6It's Smoking▼E. Perez · R. MinguetPerez · MinguetB71 81@trip 816-1Fair 8-110%
—71 81@trip 81B▼ Best fig 81 is 5+ under today's par 86Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 81 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 81
▼ Best fig 81 is 5+ under today's par 86◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE60D LAYOFFCuts back from 6 furlongs to 5 furlongs. Off 83 days since the last start.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 6)TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Bumped st; bid turn), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 17 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/10 GP 6f D sInSumatinB100k 3rd/6 -6L 71 12-1 b Bumped st; bid turn 5/22 GP 5f D MSW Won/7 81 30-1 b 1/2 step slow;3p;drvg 7Ford Roadster▼Y. Torres · R. MinguetTorres · MinguetA74 823-1Fair 5-117%
—74 82A▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (74 vs 82)2Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 74 82
▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (74 vs 82)Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. Runs for $54,000 today after a $100,000 race last time.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 6)WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 7d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/26 GP 5f T HlywdBchB100k 2nd/8 74 14-1 b Cam in turn;objection 4/19 GP 4½f D MSW Won/6 82 12-1 b Dueled;bid2w;driving
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
EQK · RACE 1
UPCOMINGOptional Claiming $75,000
Claiming $75,000, for 2-year-olds.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
The shape is the story here: 5 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #3 Boyhood Dream (early speed, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 76 · 85 · 75. Backup is #7 Ford Roadster at 3-1. Use #4 King Cousin B in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #3 BOYHOOD DREAM (5-2) — our number agrees.
- #3 BOYHOOD DREAM — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (23.9% to their 22.2%).
- #7 FORD ROADSTER — our #2 number, about right at the windows (19.9% to their 19.4%).
- #4 KING COUSIN B — our #3 number, about right at the windows (17.9% to their 17.2%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #1 Tweed; pressure from #7 Ford Roadster, #6 It's Smoking; and works against #1 Tweed, #2 Road To Midnight, #3 Boyhood Dream.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
RACE 10 FROM GULFSTREAM PARK
LEG A OF THE COAST TO COAST PICK 5
BET OPTIONS
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