1Classic Equation▼▼S. Leon · C. NarvaezLeon · NarvaezC57 75 69▼▼-11@trip 6420-1Fair 30-13%
▼▼ Big drop -1157 75 69@trip 64C▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 83▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (57 vs 75)Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Best fig at today's trip 64 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 57 75 69
▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 83▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (57 vs 75)Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Best recent figure is 75, well under the 83 par for this level.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Through after half), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 15d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/27 GP 1m D Clm 35k b 7th/7 -9L 57 24-1 b L Through after half; 2/4 TAM 1 1/16 T MCL 32k Won/10 75 20-1 b L Bid1/4;2p2nd;kick clr 1/2 TAM 1 1/16 T MCL 16k 3rd/12 -4L 69 12-1 b L Ins; angle1/4; 4p lane 2CiborioL. Reyes · J. D'AngeloReyes · D'AngeloC77 83 75►≡@trip 789-2Fair 10-110%
► Steady77 83 75 ≡@trip 78C2Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #2 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 75–83 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 83 75
★ FASTEST WORKDrops from optional claiming to $35,000 claiming. Switches from dirt to turf.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 3; 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/11 GP 1 1/16 D OC 25k n1x 6th/6 -2L 77 14-1 b L Stalked pace; gave way 9/13 GP 1 1/16 D MSW Won/7 by ½ 83 2.0-1 b L Inside bid; clear 8/3 GP 1 1/16 D MSW 5th/9 -3¾L 75 13-1 b L 5w into lane; mildly 3Won For LouC. Gil · J. D'AngeloGil · D'AngeloC77 79 76►≡@trip 838-1Fair 15-17%
► Steady77 79 76 ≡@trip 83CCard model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 76–83 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 79 76
Has won 2 of 5 going today's distance. 7th last time, 3¼ lengths back, in a field of 9.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Sep 13; 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/27 GP 1m T sAlw52000n1x 7th/9 -3¼L 77 4.3-1 b L No bid; evenly; 8/29 GP 1 1/16 D BearsDenB100k 6th/6 -3¼L 79 4.2-1 b Rally turn; flattened 4/18 SA -6½f T JShear Stk 5th/5 -5L 76 16-1 b 3-2wide; weakened 4BrushfireY. Torres · E. CorderoTorres · CorderoC77 75 75►≡@trip 766-1Fair 12-18%
► Steady77 75 75 ≡@trip 76CCard model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 75–77 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 75 75
60D LAYOFFClass relief: optional claiming last time, $35,000 claiming today. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 7d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/29 GP 1m D OC 25k n1x 5th/6 -4½L 77 14-1 b L Went even; no threat; 7/13 GP 6f D Clm 30k n2l 3rd/7 -10L 75 3.5-1 b L Wide trip; stayed on 3/1 GP 1m T MCL 17kc Won/10 75 1.0-1 b L Carried 5wd into 1st 5OperatnthunderboltF. Vasquez Jr. · B. TessoreVasquez Jr. · TessoreB81 77 79►≡@trip 838-1Fair 12-18%
► Steady81 77 79 ≡@trip 83BCard model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 77–83 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 77 79
★ FASTEST WORKOff 56 days since the last start. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.WORKS SHARP 4f in :46.60 on Oct 15 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/6 GP 1 1/16 D Clm 35k n2x 3rd/5 81 4.1-1 b L Loomed;led;outfinished 8/15 GP 1m T OC 35k 5th/8 -3¼L 77 10-1 b L 4wd; urged 3/8;kept on 7/19 GP 1 1/16 T OC 35k 4th/6 -2¾L 79 9.5-1 b L 6-w upper;not enough 6Camigol▲M. Meneses · A. SanoMeneses · SanoB84 83 82►≡8-1Fair 10-19%
► Steady84 83 82 ≡B▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 83Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 82–84 · Last 3 figs 84 83 82
▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 83Last out was 2nd, 4½ lengths behind the winner, in a 6-horse $35,000 claiming race at GP. Dropped in well back early last out, 5th of 6 at the first call.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Aug 22; 1 work in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 GP 1 1/16 D Clm 35k b 2nd/6 -4½L 84 3.5-1 b L Good gain; not enough 9/4 GP 1 1/16 D OC 35k Won/6 83 2.3-1 b L 4-3w;bid 1/4;dug in 8/3 GP 1 1/16 D OC 25k 3rd/5 -3L 82 3.1-1 b L Pulled btwn; track ins 7LaudableJ. Morelos · S. DwoskinMorelos · DwoskinC66 73 77▼▼-10@trip 7910-1Fair 12-17%
▼▼ Big drop -1066 73 77@trip 79CCard model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 73 77
4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSFigures have slipped: 77, 73, 66 over its last three. Finished 6th in a 6-horse allowance race at GP, beaten 11 lengths.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 8d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/11 GP 1 1/16 D sAlw52000n1x 6th/6 -11L 66 20-1 b L Off pace;2p;no bid 7/18 GP 1m T sAlw65000n1x 7th/7 -5L 73 13-1 L Settled; faded stretch 6/19 GP 1 1/16 D sAlw65000n1x 4th/5 -4½L 77 13-1 L Outside;2-3p;no kick 8Venezuelan HopeD. Herrera · S. KlesarisHerrera · KlesarisA78 85 78►@trip 815-1Fair 10-19%
► Steady78 85 78@trip 81A3Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 81 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 85 78
Owns the highest recent figure here at 85. Worked 4F in :48.40 on May 17, 3rd of 21 at the distance.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 154 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/20 GP 1 1/16 D OC 35k 2nd/6 -2½L 78 3.9-1 b L Re-bid for place 9/6 GP 1 1/16 D Clm 35k n2x Won/5 by 1½ 85 2.5-1 b L Shuffl'd st; 4wd rally 8/15 GP 1m T OC 35k 4th/8 -4¾L 78 10-1 b L Swung 5wd; mild rally 9Apache One SixLSC. Cedeno · R. CoyCedeno · CoyC80 76 76▲+3≡@trip 8012-1Fair 15-17%
▲ Up +3 · career best80 76 76 ≡@trip 80CLSCard model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +3 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 76–80 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 76 76
LSLongshot read: 12-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 7% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.
Picks up 12 pounds from its last start. Winless in 4 starts at this distance.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 8d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/9 GP 1m T OC 35k 4th/7 -1L 80 9.2-1 b L Duel;svd gnd;gave way 8/23 GP 1 1/16 T MCL 25k Won/7 76 2.2-1 b L Sustained rally 3wd 7/26 GP 1m T MCL 25k 2nd/8 76 1.9-1 b L Attnd pace;led;nailed 10Skyliner▼S. Camacho Jr. · D. DonaldsonCamacho Jr. · DonaldsonC77 69 70▲▲+9@trip 6430-1Fair 50-12%
▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best77 69 70@trip 64C▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 83Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #13 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 64 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 69 70
▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 83A step up in company: $17,500 claiming before, $35,000 claiming today. Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Mar 28, in :51.20.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 56d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/26 GP 1 1/16 T Clm 17k n2l 6th/10 -6L 77 34-1 b L Went evenly; no bid 9/11 GP 1 1/16 D MCL 17k Won/5 69 6.4-1 b L 4p;bid1/4;kick clear 8/23 GP 1 1/16 T MCL 25k 5th/7 -2½L 70 37-1 b L Steadied early; evenly 11Squire▲J. Torrealba · P. BianconeTorrealba · BianconeB83 74 81▲+4@trip 838-1Fair 15-17%
▲ Up +483 74 81@trip 83B▲ Last fig 83 at/above par 83Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #9 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 83 74 81
▲ Last fig 83 at/above par 83Stretches out from 5 furlongs to a mile. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 20 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/18 GP 5f D OC 25k n1x 8th/9 -5L 83 21-1 b L Chased inside; faded 3/6 GP 1m T sAlw54000n1x 8th/8 -6½L 74 5.5-1 b L 3-2wd; no response 2/1 GP 5½f D sAlw54000n1x 3rd/7 -3½L 81 2.0-1 b L 2-3p;4w upper;mildly 12Alinao ForeverJ. Santos · D. ZanelliSantos · ZanelliA82 83 78▲+6@trip 838-1Fair 12-18%
▲ Up +682 83 78@trip 83ACard model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 83 78
CLASS DROPWON LASTWinner of a 9-horse optional claiming race at GP last time. Raises its level, optional claiming last time and $35,000 claiming now.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: 5wd rally; held sway. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 8d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/11 GP 1 1/16 D OC 12k Won/9 82 10-1 b L 5wd rally; held sway 9/27 GP 1m T OC 20k 6th/7 -7½L 83 28-1 b L Trailed; no threat; 9/12 GP 1 1/16 D Clm 10k b Won/8 78 6.5-1 b L Repel bid;held well 13Always TrueE. Gonzalez · D. ZanelliGonzalez · ZanelliA81 83 77►≡@trip 813-1Fair 5-116%
► Steady81 83 77 ≡@trip 81A1Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 77–83 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 83 77
60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSA 76-day gap since its last race. An 83 top number against a 83 par, so it fits the level.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 8d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/17 GP 1m T OC 20k 2nd/7 -2L 81 6.6-1 b L Between; late bid 7/20 GP 1 1/16 D OC 20k Won/7 83 12-1 b L Rail bid; drew clear 6/21 GP 1 1/16 D OC 20k 4th/9 -6¾L 77 22-1 b L Angled 5w 1/4;improved
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
EQK · RACE 3
UPCOMINGClaiming $35,000
Claiming $35,000, for 3-year-olds and up.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #13 Always True (a presser/stalker, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 81 · 83 · 77. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #2 Ciborio at 9-2. Use #8 Venezuelan Hope in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #13 ALWAYS TRUE (3-1) — our number agrees.
- #13 ALWAYS TRUE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (16.9% to their 16.2%).
- #2 CIBORIO — our #2 number, about right at the windows (11.0% to their 11.8%).
- #8 VENEZUELAN HOPE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (10.1% to their 10.8%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.
Likely leader: #9 Apache One Six; pressure from #5 Operatnthunderbolt, #4 Brushfire.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
RACE 11 FROM GULFSTREAM PARK
LEG C OF THE COAST TO COAST PICK 5
BET OPTIONS
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