★ Distance horse: #6 Eltonsingsanother (4-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 90 from 3 tries. Not in our top three.
1Someday Lady▲E. Payeras · C. DollasePayeras · DollaseC30 83 79▼▼-49↕30-1Fair 30-14%
▼▼ Big drop -4930 83 79 ↕C▲ Rider upgrade (30% vs 20%) cutting back to a sprintCard model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -49 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 30–83 · Last 3 figs 30 83 79
▲ Rider upgrade (30% vs 20%) cutting back to a sprintDrops from optional claiming to optional claiming. Last out was 5th, 17 lengths behind the winner, in a 5-horse optional claiming race at SA.
PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 3)WORKS SHARP 5f in :58.60 on Aug 17 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/18 SA 1m D OC 50k n1x 5th/5 -17L 30 24-1 b L Ins;gave way2nd;eased 10/4 LA 4.54545f D Alw n2ml 6th/6 -7½L 83 5.4-1 b L Bothered; no threat 7/19 EMD 6½f D WaLgstrB50k 4th/7 -3½L 79 30-1 2-w; steady effort 2Ready Jet Go▼J. Rodriguez · A. AquinoRodriguez · AquinoC74 59 80▲+4@trip 7430-1Fair 30-13%
▲ Up +474 59 80@trip 74C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesCard model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 59 80
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesWON LASTChanges barns, from Ashley T Garcia to Angela M Aquino. Comes in off a victory in a 7-horse allowance race at GRP.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 61 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/5 GRP 6f D Alw n3x Won/7 74 9.1-1 b L Roused 1/4p;led;drvng 9/13 GRP 5½f D SoBelle14k 6th/7 -9½L 59 18-1 L 3wide; weakened 1/17 LA 4.54545f D Alw n1ml 6th/6 -8½L 80 24-1 L Tracked ins; tired 3Bessie ColemanM. Americano · S. MiyadiAmericano · MiyadiB72 68 84▼▼-8@trip 853-2Fair 5-228%
▼▼ Big drop -872 68 84@trip 85B1Card model 28% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 68 84
Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here. Figure of 87 on the record sits above the 82 par.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 6d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 SA 6f T fsOC20000n1x 9th/9 -4½L 72 26-1 L 3deep;4w into str;wknd 9/7 DMR 5f T fsOC20000n1x 10th/12 -8¼L 68 6.7-1 L Crowded st;3w;swung5w 7/30 DMR 6f D fsOC20000n1x Won/12 84 11-1 L Bp7/16;shft/bp/lug str 4Shop Till You DropA. Ayuso · R. BaltasAyuso · BaltasA75 81 84▼-6≡@trip 839-2Fair 5-117%
▼ Down -675 81 84 ≡@trip 83A3Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -6 · ≡ Steady figures 75–84 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 75 81 84
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSFigures have slipped: 84, 81, 75 over its last three. A step up in company: allowance before, optional claiming today.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.TROUBLED TRIP Bpd erly; 4-5w; churn on last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 7d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/18 LRC 5½f D Alw s 5th/8 -6½L 75 1.5-1 L Bpd erly;4-5w;churn on 7/30 DMR 6½f D Clm 25k 2nd/8 -2L 81 4.0-1 L Stalk;3-4wd to stretch 7/3 LRC 5½f D Clm 10k n3l Won/6 84 2.0-1 L 3w;tip5w;geared down 5Ryan's GirlK. Kimura · G. VallejoKimura · VallejoA74 78 81▼-73-1Fair 9-218%
▼ Down -774 78 81A2Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -7 · Last 3 figs 74 78 81
Switches from turf to dirt. 0 for 5 at today's distance.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 30 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 SA 6f T fsOC20000n1x 8th/9 -3L 74 21-1 b L 2wd;bmpd 1/8;weakened 9/18 LRC 5½f D Alw s 2nd/8 -3L 78 1.8-1 b L Ins-3w;angled;rallied 7/26 DMR 1m T fsOC20000n1x 6th/10 -2¾L 81 7.8-1 b L Ins-2wd;tip out;flattn 6Eltonsingsanother▲★T. Baze · E. AlvarezBaze · AlvarezA81 76 90►@trip 904-1Fair 6-113%
► Steady81 76 90@trip 90A▲ Lone speed on early pace★ Best at the trip 90Card model 13% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 90 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 76 90
▲ Lone speed on early pace★ Best at the trip 90CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTBest Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 90, with 87 next best. Won last out in a 7-horse $10,000 claiming race at SA.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Jul 25; 1 work in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/25 SA 5½f D Clm 10k Won/7 81 2.2-1 L Inside bid;held late 9/11 LRC 5½f D Clm 16k 2nd/7 -3½L 76 4.5-1 L Vie4deep;chsd;gaining 8/23 DMR 6f D Clm 8k Won/8 90 2.6-1 L Led ins;clear;drew off 7Brookys Gal▼LSF. Monroy · I. TamayoMonroy · TamayoB72 82 67▼-3@trip 8515-1Fair 15-16%
▼ Down -372 82 67@trip 85B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesLSCard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -3 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 82 67
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesLSLongshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.
CLASS UP9 wins from 16 starts at this distance. A big drop, optional claiming to optional claiming, and worth asking why.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 13d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/7 DMR 6½f D fsOC20000n1x 7th/9 -5¼L 72 27-1 L Prss btwn;bpd/chck upr 1/10 SA 6f D Clm 10k v Won/8 by ½ 82 1.6-1 L 4deep;aim3w;drove clr 12/28 SA 6½f D fsOC20000n1x 12th/13 -8¾L 67 52-1 L Tracked ins;weakened 8My KatE. Maldonado · D. O'NeillMaldonado · O'NeillB76 49 68▲▲+13↕@trip 818-1Fair 10-19%
▲▲ Big jump +1376 49 68 ↕@trip 81BCard model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 49–76 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 49 68
60D LAYOFFStretches out from 5 furlongs to 6 furlongs. A 65-day gap since its last race.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 4)WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 5d ago)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/28 DMR 5f T Clm 25k 5th/8 -1L 76 22-1 b L Cleared;duel ins;wknd 7/31 DMR 5½f D Clm 16k c 7th/8 -5½L 49 3.0-1 b L Fracts;bpd/crowded brk 6/27 LRC 5½f D Clm 20k 3rd/7 -5½L 68 4.4-1 b L 3-5wide; up for 3rd
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (7 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
EQK · RACE 4
UPCOMINGOptional Claiming $16,000
Claiming $16,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #3 Bessie Coleman (a presser/stalker, M/L 3-2). Recent figures: 72 · 68 · 84. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #5 Ryan's Girl at 3-1. Use #4 Shop Till You Drop in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #3 BESSIE COLEMAN (3-2) — our number agrees.
- #3 BESSIE COLEMAN — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (29.8% to their 31.5%).
- #5 RYAN'S GIRL — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.2% to their 19.7%).
- #4 SHOP TILL YOU DROP — our #3 number, about right at the windows (16.3% to their 14.3%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #8 My Kat; pressure from #1 Someday Lady, #5 Ryan's Girl; the shape helps #2 Ready Jet Go, #3 Bessie Coleman, #4 Shop Till You Drop; and works against #1 Someday Lady, #8 My Kat.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
RACE 6 FROM SANTA ANITA
LEG D OF THE COAST TO COAST PICK 5
BET OPTIONS
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