★ Distance horse: #7 Del Mar Jerry (5-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 97 from 5 tries. Not in our top three.
1Doo Wop Don▲J. Hernandez · J. MullinsHernandez · MullinsA93 79 85▲▲+11@trip 875-2Fair 9-218%
▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best93 79 85@trip 87A▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 822Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 87 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 93 79 85
▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 82CLASS DROPWON LASTWinner of an 8-horse $8,000 claiming race at SA last time. A step up in company: $8,000 claiming before, $12,500 claiming today.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 7 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 SA 5½f D Clm 8k Won/8 by hd 93 2.2-1 b L Inside; hand urging 11/2 DMR 6½f D Clm 16k c 5th/6 -5L 79 1.5-1 b L 2-3wd;mvd out;no rally 10/19 SA 1m D Clm 12k c Won/5 85 1.0-1 b L Bid2wd1/4;dueled str 2City Exile▲LST. Baze · S. KnappBaze · KnappB82 86 88▼-5≡15-1Fair 10-19%
▼ Down -582 86 88 ≡B▲ Last fig 82 at/above par 82LSCard model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -5 · ≡ Steady figures 82–88 · Last 3 figs 82 86 88
▲ Last fig 82 at/above par 82LSLongshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.
Also today · Jockey R4: Eltonsingsanother 4-1, R5: Frank Bullitt 3-1 · Trainer this race: Whiskyginandbrandy 7-2, R5: Jimmy Winkfield 4-1Switches from turf to dirt. Drops from $32,000 claiming to $12,500 claiming.
EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 28 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/17 SA 1m T Clm 32k 8th/8 -3¾L 82 2.7-1 L 2wide; no rally 9/6 DMR 1⅛m T Clm 25k 7th/12 -2½L 86 3.7-1 L Saved ground;flattened 7/24 DMR 1⅛m T Clm 40k c 3rd/8 -3L 88 1.0-1 L Ins;tip out;willingly 3Crypto Ride▲K. Frey · S. HobsonFrey · HobsonC82 80 81▲+3≡@trip 8920-1Fair 20-15%
▲ Up +382 80 81 ≡@trip 89C▲ Last fig 82 at/above par 82Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +3 · ≡ Steady figures 76–82 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (9 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 80 81
▲ Last fig 82 at/above par 82CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTLast start was a win, in a 7-horse $10,000 claiming race at SA at 4.6-1. Raises its level, $10,000 claiming last time and $12,500 claiming now.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 100d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/4 SA 1m D Clm 10k Won/7 82 4.6-1 b L 2-3w;aim btwn;cleared 9/6 DMR 1m D Clm 16k 4th/9 -8½L 80 45-1 b L Bid4-3w backstr;tired 8/8 DMR 6f D sOC20000n1x 6th/8 -9L 81 37-1 b L Ins;passed tired rvls 4OobubbakakayoH. Berrios · G. VallejoBerrios · VallejoC79 85 72►@trip 8520-1Fair 20-15%
► Steady79 85 72@trip 85CCard model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 85 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 85 72
CLASS UP★ FASTEST WORKLast race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt. A big drop, optional claiming to $12,500 claiming, and worth asking why.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 18; 1 work in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/27 SA 1m T sOC20000n1x 9th/11 -3½L 79 50-1 L Tight;stdy 7/8;wknd 9/12 LRC 1m D Clm 12k n2x Won/5 by ½ 85 3.0-1 L Pulled;2w;3w;cleared 7/26 DMR 1m D Clm 10k 9th/10 -11L 72 16-1 L Settled inside; empty 5Brother O' Brien▲K. Kimura · T. McCannaKimura · McCannaA94 87 85▲▲+10@trip 853-1Fair 7-222%
▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best94 87 85@trip 85A▲ Last fig 94 at/above par 821Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 85 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 94 87 85
▲ Last fig 94 at/above par 824 WORKS IN 30 DAYSHas run 94 against a 82 par for the class. Has moved up each time out, 85 to 87 to 94.
EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 4 works in 30d, last 8d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/7 EMD 1 1/16 D Alw s 2nd/10 -1½L 94 1.8-1 b L 2-w; strong finish 8/16 EMD 1⅛m D Alw s 2nd/9 -2½L 87 1.7-1 b L 2;3-w; finished fast 7/19 EMD 1m D Alw s Won/8 85 1.2-1 b L 4;5-w; all out 6WhiskyginandbrandyT. Pereira · S. KnappPereira · KnappB76 97 92▼▼-14↕@trip 927-2Fair 6-114%
▼▼ Big drop -1476 97 92 ↕@trip 92B3Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -14 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 76–97 · Best fig at today's trip 92 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 97 92
Also today · Jockey R5: Got'm Cot'm 5-1 · Trainer this race: City Exile 15-1, R5: Jimmy Winkfield 4-13 WORKS IN 30 DAYSGoes a mile after running 6½ furlongs last time. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 97, with 94 next best.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS Average work schedule for this field (3 works in 30d, last 7d ago)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/7 DMR 6½f D Alw s 9th/11 -6L 76 9.1-1 b L Tracked 3-4wd;weakened 7/5 LRC 7f D Alw s 4th/6 -4½L 97 7.7-1 b L Tracked 3-5wd;no rally 6/20 LRC 1m D sBertrandoB100k 4th/5 -3L 92 16-1 b Lacked room/checked3/8 7Del Mar Jerry▲★M. Americano · S. MiyadiAmericano · MiyadiA82 83 90▼-4≡@trip 975-1Fair 8-111%
▼ Down -482 83 90 ≡@trip 97A▲ Last fig 82 at/above par 82★ Best at the trip 97Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -4 · ≡ Steady figures 82–90 · Best fig at today's trip 97 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 83 90
▲ Last fig 82 at/above par 82★ Best at the trip 97★ FASTEST WORKFigures have slipped: 90, 83, 82 over its last three. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 80).
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 6)WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.20 on Oct 24 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 SA 1m D Clm 20k 5th/6 -2L 82 2.3-1 L 3deep;2wd/btwn;flatten 9/12 LRC 5½f D OC 25k 5th/7 -8¼L 83 7.4-1 L 5wd turn; 6wd lane 8/21 DMR 6f D Clm 40k 7th/8 -2¾L 90 12-1 L Pressed between;weaken 8Keep Movin' on▼J. Rosario · M. GlattRosario · GlattC80 75 84►≡@trip 8512-1Fair 15-17%
► Steady80 75 84 ≡@trip 85C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesCard model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 75–84 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 75 84
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesCLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORKFastest 5F work of its morning on Oct 25 (:59.20), a sign it is training forwardly. Worked 4F in :47.00 on Sep 19, 2nd of 20 at the distance.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 25 (5F in :59.20), 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/4 SA 1m D Clm 10k 3rd/7 -2½L 80 2.7-1 b L Brk in/bpd;3-2w;ins-3w 9/6 DMR 1⅛m T Clm 25k 12th/12 -8L 75 58-1 b L 3deep;shuffld2nd;tired 8/7 DMR 1m T Alw s 4th/10 -3½L 84 26-1 b L 2wd;swung 4wd;improved 9Mubtadaa▼A. Ayuso · V. CerinAyuso · CerinB81 91 84▼-68-1Fair 10-110%
▼ Down -681 91 84B▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (81 vs 91)Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -6 · Last 3 figs 81 91 84
▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (81 vs 91)Also today · Jockey R4: Shop Till You Drop 9-2, R5: Moment Of Valor 10-1 · Trainer R5: Grey's Boy 8-1A longer trip: 6 furlongs last out, a mile today. Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 27 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/18 SA 6f T OC 32k 9th/10 -6½L 81 35-1 L 3wide turn; weakened 8/14 DMR 1m T Clm 32k 5th/9 -½L 91 4.5-1 L Ins;bid btwn7/16;flatn 7/17 DMR 5f T Clm 40k 5th/8 -2¾L 84 3.8-1 L Inside; tight 5/16
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
EQK · RACE 2
UPCOMINGClaiming $12,500
Claiming $12,500, for 3-year-olds and up.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #5 Brother O' Brien (a closer, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 94 · 87 · 85. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #1 Doo Wop Don at 5-2. Use #6 Whiskyginandbrandy in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #1 DOO WOP DON (5-2) — our number has it ranked #2.
- #1 DOO WOP DON — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.2% to their 22.5%).
- #5 BROTHER O' BRIEN — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (20.4% to their 19.7%).
- #6 WHISKYGINANDBRANDY — our #3 number, about right at the windows (16.3% to their 17.5%).
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #2 CITY EXILE (15-1) — our fair 5.9% is above the morning line's 4.9%; supported by: 6-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #7 Del Mar Jerry; pressure from #6 Whiskyginandbrandy, #1 Doo Wop Don; the shape helps #1 Doo Wop Don, #3 Crypto Ride, #4 Oobubbakakayo; and works against #7 Del Mar Jerry.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
RACE 5 FROM SANTA ANITA
LEG B OF THE COAST TO COAST PICK 5
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