SPECIAL WAGER POOL · RACE 2

UPCOMING

State-Bred Maiden Special Weight

Field

9 runners

Purse

$38,500

Post

6:33 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Model top pick

#6 · 24%

Maiden Special Weight, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #6 Turn Him Loose (early speed, M/L 7-2). Recent figures: 63 · 69 · 60. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #8 Engine Sol at 3-1. Use #4 Cover Art in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

The field, ranked

Our order, top to bottom.

Pressed Pace: Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

1TOP PICK

6Turn Him Loose

Jockey Carlos Jimenez 34% career · Trainer Juan A Lopez 26% career

Moves up from maiden special weight to maiden special weight. Tops the field on speed figures, a 69 against 64 for the next best.

PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 3)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 188d back)

M/L7-2

Model24%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last2nd · 25d

22ND

8Engine Sol

Jockey Santo Sanjur 27% career · Trainer Randy Matthews 26% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Asteria 9-2, R3: Max 9-2

60D LAYOFF

0 for 4 at today's distance. Maiden through 20 starts.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 7d back

M/L3-1

Model19%

Fav?No

StyleP

Last2nd · 65d

33RD

4Cover Art

Jockey Samuel E Bermudez 35% career · Trainer Jay J Holden 19% career

Also today · Trainer this race: Kenosha Kicker 15-1, this race: Tapitoutonsunday 25-1

Best recent figure is 60, well under the 77 par for this level. Quick turnaround, just 8 days since the last start.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 177d back)

M/L4-1

Model14%

Fav?No

StyleE/P

Last3rd · 8d

44TH

2Officer Gambill

Jockey Mitchell Murrill 29% career · Trainer Shawna Martin 28% career

Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Beaten 35 lengths for 6th in a 6-horse maiden special weight race at IND.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 63d back)

M/L10-1

Model8%

Fav?No

StyleE

Last6th · 23d

55TH

1Reachin Out

Jockey Victor Lara 26% career · Trainer Darlene Green 29% career

A step up in company: maiden claiming $15,000 before, maiden special weight today. Switches from dirt to turf.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 120d ago

M/L20-1

Model5%

Fav?No

StyleS

Last2nd · 9d

3Kenosha Kicker

Jockey Hannah Leahey 21% career · Trainer Jay J Holden 19% career

Also today · Trainer this race: Cover Art 4-1, this race: Tapitoutonsunday 25-1

Makes his first start with no form to go on, only the Dowsing and Spinning Train breeding. This barn has 29 first-time starters on record and wins 3% of them.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 5d ago

M/L15-1

Model5%

Fav?No

StyleNA

LastDebut

7Danowoody Style

Jockey Marcelino Pedroza · Trainer Michael Porter 14% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Coach Albert Lady 5-2, R3: Surely This Time 8-1

4th last time, 11 lengths back, in a field of 6. Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 4d back

M/L10-1

Model6%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last4th · 23d

5Indy Flyer

Jockey Amir Mendoza 19% career · Trainer Anthony E Guida 16% career

Gets a new rider, Amir Mendoza replacing Santo Sanjur. Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here.

EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.

WORKS SHARP 4f in :51.00 on Feb 18 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

M/L5-2

Model16%

Fav?Yes

StyleS

Last2nd · 23d

9Tapitoutonsunday

Jockey Joseph C Bealmear 26% career · Trainer Jay J Holden 19% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Junta 20-1, R1: Flash Wear 12-1, R3: Purring 15-1 · Trainer this race: Kenosha Kicker 15-1, this race: Cover Art 4-1

Finished 5th in a 6-horse maiden special weight race at IND, beaten 15 lengths. A 43 is the high figure lately, short of the 77 par.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 61 days ago

M/L25-1

Model3%

Fav?No

StyleNA

Last5th · 23d

At a glance

Market favourite #5 INDY FLYER (5-2) — our number has it ranked #8.
#5 INDY FLYER — our #8 number, about right at the windows (20.6% to their 22.2%).
#8 ENGINE SOL — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.0% to their 19.4%).
#6 TURN HIM LOOSE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (19.0% to their 17.2%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #6 Turn Him Loose; pressure from #2 Officer Gambill, #4 Cover Art; the shape helps #4 Cover Art, #8 Engine Sol; and works against #2 Officer Gambill, #3 Kenosha Kicker, #6 Turn Him Loose.

Lead

6Turn Him Loose782Officer Gambill77

Press

4Cover Art71

Stalk

8Engine Sol69

1Reachin Out775Indy Flyer64

No style yet

9Tapitoutonsunday767Danowoody Style753Kenosha Kicker

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Turn Him Loose

Officer Gambill

Cover Art

Engine Sol

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Indy Flyer

Reachin Out

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LEG 2 OF THE HORSESHOE TURF PICK 3

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