1Slip Strike▼J. Riquelme · M. WeaverRiquelme · WeaverC6 31@trip 615-1Fair 20-15%
—6 31@trip 6C▼ Best fig 31 is 5+ under today's par 75Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 6 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 6 31
▼ Best fig 31 is 5+ under today's par 75★ FASTEST WORKNew trainer: Darrin Miller had it last time, Michael Weaver now. 8th last time, 37 lengths back, in a field of 8.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Jul 11; 1 work in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/28 IND 1m T MSW 8th/8 -37L 6 92-1 L Rail;gave way3/8;eased 8/22 ELP 7f D MCL 50k 11th/11 -21L 31 39-1 L Off slow;showed little 2Old TraceR. Prescott · S. WarpoolPrescott · WarpoolB64 55 54▲▲+9@trip 558-1Fair 12-17%
▲▲ Big jump +964 55 54@trip 55BCard model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · Best fig at today's trip 55 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 55 54
Raises its level, maiden claiming $7,500 last time and maiden claiming $12,500 now. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.
EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Swung 6w; late interest. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 14d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 BTP 1 1/16 D MCL 7k 3rd/6 -7½L 64 6.3-1 L Swung 6w;late interest 9/6 BTP 1 1/16 T MCL 7k 2nd/7 55 3.2-1 L Surged 5wd;led;caught 8/22 BTP 1m T MCL 7k 6th/10 -5L 54 8.9-1 L 6-w 2nd; coasted home 3UnconnectedV. Lara · H. LynchLara · LynchB72 58 51▲▲+1820-1Fair 20-15%
▲▲ Big jump +18 · career best72 58 51BCard model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +18 · career best · Last 3 figs 72 58 51
CLASS DROPOwns the highest recent figure here at 72. Switches from dirt to turf.
EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 58 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/6 FPK 6f D MCL 15k 2nd/8 -5L 72 9.6-1 b L Rallied late 8 wide 9/11 CD 1 1/16 D MCL 30k 9th/10 -11L 58 95-1 b L Switched out;no factor 8/21 ELP 1m D MSW 9th/9 -14L 51 94-1 b L 5p; done early 4Blakely's Boy▼B. Martinez · A. NesbittMartinez · NesbittC27 59 46▼▼-27↕@trip 5910-1Fair 12-17%
▼▼ Big drop -2727 59 46 ↕@trip 59C▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 75Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -27 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 27–59 · Best fig at today's trip 59 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 27 59 46
▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 75Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Finished 8th in an 8-horse maiden claiming $20,000 race at KEE, beaten 24 lengths.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 101d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/22 KEE 1⅛m D MCL 20k 8th/8 -24L 27 57-1 b Showed little 10/3 BTP 1m T MSW 6th/7 -4½L 59 31-1 b Stalked 2p;weakened 9/19 FPK 6f D MCL 15k 5th/7 -15L 46 7.9-1 b No speed; no threat 5Go Chicago▼S. Sanjur · J. CampbellSanjur · CampbellA59 64 65►↕@trip 657-2Fair 9-218%
► Steady59 64 65 ↕@trip 65A▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 753Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 42–65 · Best fig at today's trip 65 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 59 64 65
▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 75CLASS UPTrending the wrong way on speed, 65 to 64 to 59. Still looking for the first win after 9 starts.
PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 7)WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 51d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/14 IND 1 1/16 D MCL 20k 5th/9 -9L 59 10-1 b L Press rail;gave way1/4 9/19 BTP 1m T MCL 7k 2nd/9 -½L 64 1.0-1 b L Ins;tip 2w;game;missed 8/22 BTP 1m T MCL 7k 2nd/10 65 8.7-1 b L 3-w 2nd; just missed 6Al AmjaadD. Cannon · D. HeathCannon · HeathA66 60 66►2-1Fair 7-222%
► Steady66 60 66A1Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 66 60 66
Maiden through 9 starts. 3rd of 15 at 4F on Sep 6, in :49.40.
EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Clip heels1/8; wlkd off), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 6d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/28 IND 1 1/16 T MCL 12k DNF — 3.7-1 b L Clip heels1/8;wlkd off 8/23 ELP 1 1/16 T MCL 16k 3rd/7 -2¼L 66 5.7-1 b L 3-2p;4p upr;gaining 8/11 IND 1 1/16 D MCL 20k 9th/10 -12L 60 8.7-1 b L Off awkwardly 7Creating Havoc▼LSJ. Romero · A. Gonzalez Jr.Romero · Gonzalez Jr.C56 65 57▼-3@trip 6515-1Fair 10-110%
▼ Down -356 65 57@trip 65C▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 75LSCard model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -3 · Best fig at today's trip 65 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 56 65 57
▼ Best fig 65 is 5+ under today's par 75LSLongshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 10% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.
CLASS UPLast out was 6th, 11 lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse maiden claiming $20,000 race at IND. Was running in maiden claiming $20,000; today's maiden claiming $12,500 is an easier level on paper.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (4path; bid3/8; faltered), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 24 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/14 IND 1 1/16 D MCL 20k 6th/9 -11L 56 12-1 L 4path;bid3/8;faltered 9/4 BTP 1m T MCL 15k 6th/9 -8¾L 65 19-1 b L Slow; pass tired foes 7/12 HAW 6f D MCL 6kv 2nd/5 -1½L 57 1.0-1 b L Awk st; blk 5/16;check 8El Oso▼▲A. Burgos · J. OrantesBurgos · OrantesB49 66 65▼▼-9↕12-1Fair 12-17%
▼▼ Big drop -949 66 65 ↕B▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 75▲ Lone speed on early paceCard model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 42–66 · Last 3 figs 49 66 65
▼ Best fig 66 is 5+ under today's par 75▲ Lone speed on early pace180D+ LAYOFFCLASS DROP3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSReturns from a 227-day break, the biggest in the field. A longer trip: 6 furlongs last out, a mile today.
PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 8)TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Brush gate/bump st; 4p. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 13d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 3/20 TP 6f D MCL 30k 7th/7 -7L 49 28-1 b L Brush gate/bump st;4p 12/6 TP 1m D MCL 50k 4th/11 -1L 66 32-1 b Pace to str; wknd 10/19 KEE 5½f T MSW 11th/12 -6¾L 65 105-1 b 2wd btw;4p3/16;tired 9Rum Rock▼M. Murrill · B. CombsMurrill · CombsA68 63 66▲+3≡7-2Fair 9-219%
▲ Up +3 · career best68 63 66 ≡A▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 752Card model 19% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 63–68 · Last 3 figs 68 63 66
▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 75Worked 4F in :48.40 on Aug 26, 2nd of 49 at the distance. Best recent figure of 68 sits right around the 75 par.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS Routine prep: 1 work in 30d, last 11d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/28 IND 1 1/16 T MCL 12k 5th/12 -4½L 68 17-1 b L Inside;no late bid 9/3 DEL 1m D MCL 20k 6th/7 -5½L 63 2.3-1 b L Swung wide; gave way 7/1 DEL 1 1/16 T MCL 25k 3rd/7 -2½L 66 4.2-1 b L Inside;wide upper
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #5, #8.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
SPECIAL WAGER POOL · RACE 1
UPCOMINGMaiden Claiming $12,500
Maiden Claiming, for 3-year-olds and up.
Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #6 Al Amjaad (a closer, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 66 · 60. Backup is #9 Rum Rock at 7-2. Use #5 Go Chicago in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #6 AL AMJAAD (2-1) — our number agrees.
- #6 AL AMJAAD — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (24.9% to their 27.1%).
- #9 RUM ROCK — our #2 number, about right at the windows (19.1% to their 18.1%).
- #5 GO CHICAGO — our #3 number, about right at the windows (19.1% to their 18.1%).
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #7 CREATING HAVOC (15-1) — our fair 6.3% is above the morning line's 5.1%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #5 Go Chicago; pressure from #8 El Oso; the shape helps #7 Creating Havoc, #9 Rum Rock; and works against #1 Slip Strike, #5 Go Chicago, #8 El Oso.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
LEG 1 OF THE HORSESHOE TURF PICK 3
BET OPTIONS
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