R3 Special wager pool · Allowance · $46,240 purse

7:30 PM ET · 5 Furlongs Turf · $46,240 · 12 runners7:30 PM · 5f Turf · 12 runners

Upcoming $46K · Allowance · $46,240 purse

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Jammer InsuranceJ. McKee · E. ReedMcKee · ReedB77 70 64▲▲+10@trip 776-1Fair 12-18%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best77 70 64@trip 77B
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 77 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 70 64
Jockey J McKee · Trainer Eric R Reed 31% career
60D LAYOFFWON LAST
Comes in off a victory in a 9-horse allowance race at MNR. A step up in company: allowance before, allowance today.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
SHARP LAST OUT Drew clear driving last out, and it did it the right way.
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 7d back
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/26 MNR 5f T Alw n2x Won/9 by 2 77 4.8-1 b L Drew clear driving
7/19 BTP 5f T Alw n2l 2nd/6 70 1.1-1 b L Fought hard; gamely
5/18 MNR 5f T Alw n3x 4th/8 64 4.2-1 b L Weakened

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/26	MNR	5f T	Alw n2x	Won/9 by 2	77	4.8-1	b L	Drew clear driving
7/19	BTP	5f T	Alw n2l	2nd/6	70	1.1-1	b L	Fought hard; gamely
5/18	MNR	5f T	Alw n3x	4th/8	64	4.2-1	b L	Weakened

2Nelson's PennyD. Cannon · K. LaroseCannon · LaroseC71 66 80▼-3@trip 7110-1Fair 15-16%▼ Down -371 66 80@trip 71C

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -3 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 66 80

Jockey Declan Cannon 32% career · Trainer Kinnon Larose

Also today · Jockey R1: Al Amjaad 2-1

60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Returns from a 144-day break. Moves up from allowance to allowance.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 4 works in 30d, last 10d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/11	IND	5f T	Alw n1x	6th/7 -10L	71	8.9-1	L	Bmp hard st;unrushed'
5/7	CD	1 1/16 T	OC 125k n1x	10th/10 -10L	66	17-1	L	Brshd btw st;faded 2nd
3/13	FG	5½f T	OC 125k n1x	4th/8 -4¼L	80	8.6-1	L	3-4w;mild bid;mssd 3rd

3Elle's DancerLSY. Correa · C. BrownfieldCorrea · BrownfieldC78 79 70▲+3≡@trip 7815-1Fair 10-19%▲ Up +378 79 70 ≡@trip 78CLS

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +3 · ≡ Steady figures 70–79 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 79 70

Longshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Yarmarie L Correa 30% career · Trainer Claude Brownfield

Also today · Jockey R2: Zun Reyder 7-2 · Trainer R2: Zun Reyder 7-2

Raises its level, allowance last time and allowance now. Best recent figure of 79 sits right around the 80 par.

PACE HELPS Several horses want the lead, which is the early heat a closer is looking for.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 44d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	IND	5f T	Alw n1x	4th/8 -5¼L	78	20-1	L	Angld6p1/16;rallied
8/14	PID	6½f D	Alw n1x	2nd/7 -5L	79	9.1-1	L	Cut corner; good gain
7/25	BTP	1m T	Alw b	5th/7 -4¾L	70	7.6-1	L	Off pce ins;3-5w upr

4Office▲J. Ramos · D. BeckmanRamos · BeckmanA59 88 83▼▼-21↕@trip 835-2Fair 4-119%▼▼ Big drop -2159 88 83 ↕@trip 83A▲ Lone speed on early pace1

Card model 19% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -21 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 59–88 · Best fig at today's trip 83 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 59 88 83

▲ Lone speed on early pace

Jockey Joseph D Ramos 34% career · Trainer D Whitworth Beckman 29% career

Owns the highest recent figure here at 88. A big drop, allowance to allowance, and worth asking why.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 7)

TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Vied 3w; clip beh 5p1/4), and the figure already reflects it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 10d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	KEE	5½f T	Alw b	11th/11 -7¼L	59	9.9-1	b L	Vied 3w;clip beh 5p1/4
9/5	KD	6½f T	Alw n1x	2nd/10	88	7.3-1	b L	Showed speed;2nd best
8/6	IND	5f T	MSW	Won/11	83	1.5-1	b L	Held sway;steady drive

5PanacheR. Prescott · J. WatkinsPrescott · WatkinsC70 72 65►@trip 7015-1Fair 20-15%► Steady70 72 65@trip 70C
Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 70 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 72 65
Jockey R Prescott 26% career · Trainer James M Watkins 35% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Old Trace 8-1
Fastest 3F work of its morning on Jun 13 (:36.60), a sign it is training forwardly. Worked 3F in :36.80 on Jul 29, 2nd of 10 at the distance.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Jun 13 (3F in :36.60), 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/17 IND 5f T Alw n1x 5th/9 -5½L 70 3.6-1 L 2path;faded stretch
8/19 IND 5f D Alw n1x 6th/8 -4L 72 11-1 L Clear rail;faded str
6/24 IND 5f T MSW Won/7 by 1½ 65 4.7-1 L 4p;bid1/8;lasted;drvg
6Sarissa▼J. Bealmear · S. SandyBealmear · SandyB76 79 77▼-3≡@trip 8112-1Fair 15-17%▼ Down -376 79 77 ≡@trip 81B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 76–81 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 79 77
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises
Jockey Joseph C Bealmear 26% career · Trainer Stephen S Sandy 16% career
Last out was 5th, 2½ lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse allowance race at IND. 3rd of 21 at 4F on Oct 23, in :48.60.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.
TROUBLED TRIP 3p; bid1/16; faltered last out; the speed figure already reflects it.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on May 10; 2 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/8 IND 5f T Alw n1x 5th/8 -2½L 76 4.1-1 b L 3p;bid1/16;faltered
9/17 IND 5f T Alw n1x 2nd/9 -2L 79 13-1 b L 3p;bid late;caught
8/15 BTP 5f T Alw n4l Won/7 77 0.4-1 b L Ins;drew well clear

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/17	IND	5f T	Alw n1x	5th/9 -5½L	70	3.6-1	L	2path;faded stretch
8/19	IND	5f D	Alw n1x	6th/8 -4L	72	11-1	L	Clear rail;faded str
6/24	IND	5f T	MSW	Won/7 by 1½	65	4.7-1	L	4p;bid1/8;lasted;drvg

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/8	IND	5f T	Alw n1x	5th/8 -2½L	76	4.1-1	b L	3p;bid1/16;faltered
9/17	IND	5f T	Alw n1x	2nd/9 -2L	79	13-1	b L	3p;bid late;caught
8/15	BTP	5f T	Alw n4l	Won/7	77	0.4-1	b L	Ins;drew well clear

7Grimes Glen▼▼A. Burgos · P. DeBurgos · DeC67 73 70▼-6≡20-1Fair 30-13%▼ Down -667 73 70 ≡C▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 80▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (67 vs 73)

Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -6 · ≡ Steady figures 67–75 · Last 3 figs 67 73 70

▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 80▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (67 vs 73)

Jockey Alberto Burgos 32% career · Trainer Paz Horacio De

Also today · Jockey R1: El Oso 12-1

★ FASTEST WORK

Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Shortens up to 5 furlongs after going 6 furlongs.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 37d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/12	BTP	6f D	fsAlw22700n3l	3rd/5 -9L	67	0.4-1	L	Rail trip; mild rally
8/11	TDN	6f D	fsAlw40100n4l	4th/7 -½L	73	13-1	L	Dueled inside;outfnshd
6/22	TDN	5½f D	fsAlw38400n3l	2nd/5 by hd	70	7.0-1	L	Set pressured pace;

8Tiz in SightM. Murrill · C. HartmanMurrill · HartmanC70 80 71▼-5@trip 7012-1Fair 12-17%▼ Down -570 80 71@trip 70C
Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 70 80 71
Jockey Mitchell Murrill 29% career · Trainer Chris Hartman 33% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Rum Rock 7-2
★ FASTEST WORK
Raced in mid-pack early, 5th at the first call. A 46-day gap since its last race.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 5)
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 27 (3F in :36.00), 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/17 IND 5f T Alw n1x 4th/9 -6L 70 6.4-1 L 4path1/8;no late bid
8/19 IND 5f D Alw n1x 2nd/8 -2L 80 2.1-1 L Press3p;2nd best
7/11 IND 6f D Alw n1x 4th/9 -6L 71 6.9-1 L Pressed3p;yielded turn

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/17	IND	5f T	Alw n1x	4th/9 -6L	70	6.4-1	L	4path1/8;no late bid
8/19	IND	5f D	Alw n1x	2nd/8 -2L	80	2.1-1	L	Press3p;2nd best
7/11	IND	6f D	Alw n1x	4th/9 -6L	71	6.9-1	L	Pressed3p;yielded turn

9MomentarioA. Mendoza · J. HaranMendoza · HaranC64 76 61▼-5@trip 7910-1Fair 20-15%▼ Down -564 76 61@trip 79C

Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 64 76 61

Jockey Amir Mendoza 19% career · Trainer John Haran 30% career

Also today · Jockey R2: Melody Man 2-1

CLASS DROP★ FASTEST WORK

Switches from dirt to turf. Moves up from $12,500 claiming to allowance.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Sep 1; 1 work in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	IND	5½f D	Clm 12k n3x	5th/7 -3L	64	1.4-1	b L	Stalked4p;gave way str
9/24	IND	5½f D	Clm 20k n2l	Won/6	76	2.0-1	b L	3p;rally1/4;driving
9/8	IND	6f D	Clm 20k n2x	6th/8 -5L	61	1.3-1	b L	Pressed3p;gave way str

10Shameless BrideA. Achard · E. WestAchard · WestA77 77 67▲+7@trip 777-2Fair 7-113%▲ Up +777 77 67@trip 77A2

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 77 67

Jockey Alex Achard 30% career · Trainer Ethan W West 36% career

Has won 2 of 5 going today's distance. Beaten 4 lengths for 3rd in a 4-horse allowance race at CD.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 47d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/25	CD	5½f T	Alw s	3rd/4 -4L	77	2.8-1	b L	Press wnnr 3p;no match
8/31	IND	5f T	Alw n1x	4th/8 -5½L	77	6.0-1	b L	Lost pth1/8;shft5p;bid
7/9	CNL	5½f T	Alw n1x	9th/11 -5¾L	67	18-1	b L	Stalked4w;wknd lane

11Sugar Doll▲J. Elliott · B. LynchElliott · LynchA81 73 81▲+4≡@trip 819-2Fair 10-110%▲ Up +4 · career best81 73 81 ≡@trip 81A▲ Last fig 81 at/above par 803
Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 73–81 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 73 81
▲ Last fig 81 at/above par 80
Jockey Jane Elliott 35% career · Trainer Brian A Lynch 36% career ★ hot
4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST
Won last out in a 7-horse maiden special weight race at IND. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 92).
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 7)
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 10 (5F in 1:00.00), 4 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/22 IND 5f T MSW Won/7 81 4.4-1 b L Angld3p1/4;kept to tsk
8/22 ELP 5½f T MSW 6th/11 -1L 73 7.6-1 b L Press 2w;3p upr; wknd
1/30 GP 5f T MSW 4th/10 -2½L 81 13-1 b L Pressed2-3w;late fade

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/22	IND	5f T	MSW	Won/7	81	4.4-1	b L	Angld3p1/4;kept to tsk
8/22	ELP	5½f T	MSW	6th/11 -1L	73	7.6-1	b L	Press 2w;3p upr; wknd
1/30	GP	5f T	MSW	4th/10 -2½L	81	13-1	b L	Pressed2-3w;late fade

12Clique▼T. Wales · H. IrionWales · IrionB64 80 81▼▼-1710-1Fair 15-17%▼▼ Big drop -1764 80 81B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -17 · Last 3 figs 64 80 81

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey T Wales 34% career · Trainer Heather Irion 28% career

180D+ LAYOFFLASIX 1ST

Trending the wrong way on speed, 81 to 80 to 64. Back after 212 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field.

PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 4)

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 16d back)

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
4/4	OP	6f D	RHP 67-79	9th/9 -7¾L	64	19-1		3p;rail turn;no menace
12/14	OP	6f D	Alw n1x	4th/11 -2½L	80	22-1	b L	Traffic turn;even late
11/11	IND	6f D	Alw n1x	4th/6 -4L	81	5.9-1	b L	Awk;stlk4p;no late bid

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (9 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

SPECIAL WAGER POOL · RACE 3

UPCOMING

Allowance · $46,240 purse

Field

12 runners

Purse

$46,240

Post

7:30 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#4 · 19%

Allowance, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

The shape is the story here: 5 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #4 Office (early speed, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 59 · 88 · 83. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #10 Shameless Bride at 7-2. Use #11 Sugar Doll in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 OFFICE (5-2) — our number agrees.
#4 OFFICE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (20.9% to their 20.0%).
#10 SHAMELESS BRIDE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (14.4% to their 15.5%).
#11 SUGAR DOLL — our #3 number, about right at the windows (11.6% to their 12.7%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #3 ELLE'S DANCER (15-1) — our fair 5.7% is above the morning line's 4.4%; supported by: 9-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #4 Office; pressure from #11 Sugar Doll, #8 Tiz In Sight; the shape helps #3 Elle's Dancer; and works against #4 Office, #7 Grimes Glen, #8 Tiz In Sight.

Lead

4Office10011Sugar Doll928Tiz In Sight907Grimes Glen8512Clique83

Press

1Jammer Insurance956Sarissa949Momentario9410Shameless Bride87

Stalk

5Panache932Nelson's Penny83

3Elle's Dancer86

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Office

100

Jammer Insurance

Sarissa

Momentario

Panache

Sugar Doll

Tiz In Sight

Shameless Bride

Grimes Glen

Nelson's Penny

Clique

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Elle's Dancer

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