1Big Tom▼A. Crispin · S. DonjuanCrispin · DonjuanB60 59 64►≡@trip 6412-1Fair 15-16%
► Steady60 59 64 ≡@trip 64B▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 75Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 59–64 · Best fig at today's trip 64 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 60 59 64
▼ Best fig 64 is 5+ under today's par 75A step up in company: maiden claiming $7,500 before, maiden claiming $12,500 today. Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 20d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 BTP 1 1/16 D MCL 7k 5th/6 -6½L 60 5.3-1 b L 5-w upper;no response 9/17 BTP 1 1/16 T MCL 15k 3rd/6 -2½L 59 33-1 b L Mid-pk;bxd2trn;gain3rd 9/4 BTP 1m T MCL 15k 7th/9 -6¾L 64 18-1 b L Ins; swung5w; no more 2Gentleman JimJ. Graham · D. HeathGraham · HeathB54 72 76▼▼-16↕@trip 763-1Fair 7-222%
▼▼ Big drop -1654 72 76 ↕@trip 76B3Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -16 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 54–76 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 54 72 76
Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Figures have slipped: 76, 72, 54 over its last three.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 6d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/21 IND 1 1/16 D MCL 30k 4th/5 -6½L 54 2.1-1 b L Bmp;4path;gave way3/16 9/2 IND 1m T MCL 30k 4th/12 -6½L 72 4.0-1 b L 2path;belated bid 7/26 ELP 1m T MCL 30k 5th/10 -3¾L 76 12-1 b L 6p upper; belatedly 3Melody Man★A. Mendoza · J. SweezeyMendoza · SweezeyA66 49 68►↕@trip 792-1Fair 3-126%
► Steady66 49 68 ↕@trip 79A★ Best at the trip 791Card model 26% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 49–80 · Best fig at today's trip 79 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 49 68
★ Best at the trip 793 WORKS IN 30 DAYSTops the field on speed figures, an 80 against 76 for the next best. A big drop, maiden special weight to maiden claiming $12,500, and worth asking why.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 8d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/7 KD 1m T MSW 9th/12 -6¼L 66 32-1 b L Crowded st;4w;no bid 8/23 SAR 1m D MCL 55k 5th/6 -10L 49 4.4-1 b L Ins-2p;falter;eased 5/3 GP 5f D MSW 4th/6 -2½L 68 1.5-1 b L Steady3/8 ins;no kick 4Southern Soul▼K. Jimenez · M. SalasJimenez · SalasC62 53 54▲▲+8@trip 6225-1Fair 30-13%
▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best62 53 54@trip 62C▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 75Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 62 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 62 53 54
▼ Best fig 62 is 5+ under today's par 75CLASS DROP3rd last time, 8 lengths back, in a field of 6. Still looking for the first win after 15 starts.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 10d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/12 BTP 1m D MCL 5k 3rd/6 -8L 62 9.7-1 L 4wd bid 1/4; ran on 9/19 BTP 1m T MCL 7k 6th/9 -7½L 53 51-1 L Ins-2w;by tired ones 9/6 BTP 1 1/16 T MCL 7k 3rd/7 by nk 54 6.0-1 L Awkward start; bid 5Midnight Master▼V. Lara · F. BahenaLara · BahenaC54 58 52▼-425-1Fair 50-12%
▼ Down -454 58 52C▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 75Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -4 · Last 3 figs 54 58 52
▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 75A longer trip: 6 furlongs last out, a mile today. Switches from dirt to turf.
EVEN PACE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.WORKS Average work schedule for this field (2 works in 30d, last 9d ago)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/6 FPK 6f D MCL 15k 8th/8 -11L 54 41-1 L No speed; no rally 9/19 FPK 6f D MCL 15k 4th/7 -9½L 58 4.8-1 L Off rail 5/16;fan 5wd 8/22 FPK 1 1/16 D sMdSpWt 7th/10 -13L 52 11-1 L Alter 5/8;swung 9wide 6FuocoE. Esquivel · T. FaroneEsquivel · FaroneA67 61 68▲▲+13↕5-1Fair 8-111%
▲▲ Big jump +1367 61 68 ↕ACard model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 33–68 · Last 3 figs 67 61 68
★ FASTEST WORKGoes a mile after running 6 furlongs last time. Maiden through 16 starts.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 10; 1 work in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/14 PID 6f D MSW 5th/6 -4L 67 11-1 b L Failed to menace; 8/5 PID 6f D MSW 4th/6 -2¾L 61 4.8-1 b L Late gain 6 wide 6/29 PID 6f D MSW 3rd/7 -1½L 68 6.3-1 b L Bid;loom;evn;dead heat 7Dyno War▼J. Romero · C. RamirezRomero · RamirezC55 46 38▲▲+12@trip 5315-1Fair 20-14%
▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best55 46 38@trip 53C▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 75Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 53 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 55 46 38
▼ Best fig 55 is 5+ under today's par 75CLASS UPHas moved up each time out, 38 to 46 to 55. A 55 is the high figure lately, short of the 75 par.
EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 14 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/24 IND 5f T Clm 12k n2l 7th/8 -9L 55 77-1 L No factor 7/30 BTP 5f T MCL 7k 4th/8 -5½L 46 12-1 L Saved ground; no avail 6/18 HAW 5½f D MCL 6k 5th/6 -5½L 38 21-1 L Between foes;wknd 1/8 8Put Me in Coach▼▼LSE. Roman · G. GorostietaRoman · GorostietaB49 60 67▼▼-16@trip 6020-1Fair 20-14%
▼▼ Big drop -1649 60 67@trip 60B▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 75▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (49 vs 60)LSCard model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -16 · Best fig at today's trip 60 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 49 60 67
▼ Best fig 67 is 5+ under today's par 75▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (49 vs 60)LSLongshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 4% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.
Finished 6th in a 7-horse maiden claiming $12,500 race at IND, beaten 11 lengths. Switches from dirt to turf.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 25d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/14 IND 6f D MCL 12k 6th/7 -11L 49 24-1 L 4path;faded stretch 5/12 IND 1m T MSW 10th/12 -9¾L 60 77-1 L Evenly4path 3/13 TP 6½f D MCL 7k 2nd/11 -1¾L 67 13-1 L Bob bit st;3-4p;6p3/16 9Zun ReyderY. Correa · C. BrownfieldCorrea · BrownfieldA72 69 71►≡@trip 697-2Fair 7-222%
► Steady72 69 71 ≡@trip 69A2Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 69–72 · Best fig at today's trip 69 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 72 69 71
CLASS DROPChanges barns, from Michelle Nihei to Claude Brownfield. 3rd of 25 at 3F on Jun 12, in :36.80.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 90d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/28 IND 1 1/16 T MCL 12kc 2nd/12 by hd 72 3.7-1 L Dueled;couldn't last 9/2 IND 1m T MCL 30k 7th/12 -2½L 69 7.0-1 L Stalked rail;faded lat 8/11 IND 1 1/16 D MCL 20k 3rd/10 71 4.1-1 L Lugged out3/16;yielded
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #3, #9.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
SPECIAL WAGER POOL · RACE 2
UPCOMINGMaiden Claiming $12,500
Maiden Claiming, for 3-year-olds and up.
Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #3 Melody Man (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 66 · 49 · 68. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #9 Zun Reyder at 7-2. Use #2 Gentleman Jim in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #3 MELODY MAN (2-1) — our number agrees.
- #3 MELODY MAN — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (26.5% to their 27.0%).
- #2 GENTLEMAN JIM — our #3 number, about right at the windows (20.9% to their 20.2%).
- #9 ZUN REYDER — our #2 number, about right at the windows (19.4% to their 18.0%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.
Likely leader: #9 Zun Reyder; pressure from #3 Melody Man.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
LEG 2 OF THE HORSESHOE TURF PICK 3
BET OPTIONS
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