The validated edge
HOT_CONNECTIONS at ML 3-1 or longer.
The chalk row is the most important. When a famous trainer/jockey combo runs together at 1-3, the public bets it down past the edge. Same horse, same connections, same engine recommendation — but the price kills it. That’s why the picks card filters to ML 3+ only.
Bet structures that DON’T work
We’d be lying if we only showed the green numbers. Here’s every other bet structure we tested across 2,500 races.
What this means for you
1. Stick to the picks card
Not every angle scanner output is a profitable bet. The picks card is filtered to the only validated subset.
2. The edge is in WIN
The validated alpha lives in the WIN pool. PLACE-only converges to chalk; exotics blow it up. We don’t prescribe ticket shapes — we publish the edge.
3. Skip exotic boxes
EX/TRI/SUPER/Pick N look attractive (big payouts) but lose 40-100% of stake on average.
4. Volume varies
Some days produce 5-10 qualified picks. Some days zero. The card never pads to fill space.
Closing-line value
Are our picks beating the market’s closing line?
Calibration check
When the model says X% conviction, does it actually win X% of the time?
Methodology
Backtest period: rolling 90 days ending today, refreshed every Sunday. Sample: every settled US thoroughbred race in the period with morning-line + finish data, ~2,500 races. ROI computed on a unit-stake basis from actual settled win_payoff in the race-results data. Hot-trainer/jockey thresholds: top-60 over rolling 30-day windows with min 15 starts (trainers) / 20 starts (jockeys). HOT_CONNECTIONS = horse where both connections meet thresholds. Source: Brisnet results API.
Takeout accounting: Published WIN ROI numbers are computed on actual settled tote payoffs — net of the host track’s WIN takeout (typically 15-19%). They reflect what was actually paid at the window, not theoretical morning-line implied returns. Gross-of-takeout returns would be higher; we publish net because that’s what real-money outcomes look like.
Caveats: The 12-15% number derives from a window that includes the discovery period for the HOT_CONNECTIONS filter. Closing-line value (CLV) is the more rigorous test — we’re accumulating closing-odds data and will publish CLV here once we’ve crossed N≥60 settled picks with capture coverage. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Sample-size honesty: 785 picks across 90 days is enough to detect a real edge but not enough to rule out variance bands of ±5pp on the ROI estimate. Treat the directional finding as the signal, not the precise number.