1Mad HouseP. Lopez · D. VanwinkleLopez · VanwinkleC96 96 90►≡@trip 10130-1Fair 30-13%
► Steady96 96 90 ≡@trip 101CCard model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 90–100 · Best fig at today's trip 101 (9 tries) · Last 3 figs 96 96 90
★ FASTEST WORKRuns for $2,000,000 after a $400,000 race last out. Has won 5 of 10 going today's distance.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 8)WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 7d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 KEE 6f D Phoenix G2 3rd/8 96 5.0-1 Ins-2p;dug in;cght lat 7/25 DMR 6f D BCrosby G1 4th/8 -2½L 96 19-1 Ins;overtaken;lost3rd 5/30 CD 6f D Aristdes G3 5th/6 -3½L 90 3.1-1 Pressured; gave way 2Dark SaffronC. Beasley · H. BinBeasley · Bin?20-1Fair 30-13%
——?Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #13 · Tier ?
180D+ LAYOFFWON LASTReturns from a 217-day break, the biggest in the field. Won last out in a 12-horse race at MEY.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 3/28 MEY 5.96364f D Dub Gldn Sh G1 Won/12 — — 2/28 MEY 5.96364f D Mhb Al Shml G3 2nd/10 — — 1/30 MEY 5.96364f T Dub Sprnt136k 6th/14 — — 3Liam Smith▲M. Franco · P. MillerFranco · MillerB104 105 87▲▲+920-1Fair 10-19%
▲▲ Big jump +9104 105 87B▲ Last fig 104 at/above par 1003Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · Last 3 figs 104 105 87
▲ Last fig 104 at/above par 100Also today · Jockey R1: Simply Joking 30-1, R2: Roja 30-1, R3: Moonlight 15-1, R4: Thought Process 15-1 +3 more · Trainer R3: Moonlight 15-13 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LASTWinner of a 6-horse optional claiming race at SA last time. A 105 in its last five clears the 100 par for this level.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 8)SHARP LAST OUT Chart comment from the last start: Pace; ins-2w; drew off.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (3 works in 30d, last 7d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/26 SA 6½f D OC 50k n1x Won/6 104 0.7-1 b L Pace;ins-2w;drew off 8/27 DMR 6½f D Clm 50k c Won/5 105 0.7-1 b L Sped clear; romped 7/31 DMR 5f T OC 50k 3rd/5 -½L 87 1.9-1 b L Led;duel ins;stayed on 4Hymn▲R. Santana Jr. · R. MoquettSantana Jr. · MoquettB101 98 102►≡@trip 10215-1Fair 20-14%
► Steady101 98 102 ≡@trip 102B▲ Last fig 101 at/above par 100Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 97–102 · Best fig at today's trip 102 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 101 98 102
▲ Last fig 101 at/above par 10060D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTPurse goes from $500,000 to $2,000,000, a step up. Cuts back from 7 furlongs to 6 furlongs.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Brush gate st; gamely), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 24; 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/29 SAR 7f D Forego G1 Won/6 101 4.7-1 Brush gate st; gamely 7/25 SAR 6f D AGVndbt G2 2nd/6 -2½L 98 4.0-1 Bmp brk;ins-2p trn;5p 6/27 LRL 6f D DeFrncsM Stk Won/6 by ½ 102 1.7-1 Drft in;powr awy;r out 5Listenupshance▲E. Jaramillo · D. O'NeillJaramillo · O'NeillB100 100 101▲+4@trip 10012-1Fair 15-16%
▲ Up +4100 100 101@trip 100B▲ Last fig 100 at/above par 100Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · Best fig at today's trip 100 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 100 100 101
▲ Last fig 100 at/above par 100WON LAST3 wins from 5 starts at this distance. Last start was a win, in a 3-horse race at SA at 1.2-1.
PACE CHALLENGE Has to fight for the lead against company, and the fractions may cost it late. (early-speed points: 7)WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 6d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/27 SA 6f D SaSprtCh G2 Won/3 100 1.2-1 Off slw;rushup;ins;hld 7/25 DMR 6f D BCrosby G1 Won/8 100 5.9-1 Press2w;clear;lasted 6/6 SAR 6½f D TruNrth G3 3rd/6 101 21-1 Off slw;rushed;gamely 6American Stage▲LSO. Murphy · Y. YahagiMurphy · YahagiC100@trip 10030-1Fair 15-16%
—100@trip 100C▲ Last fig 100 at/above par 100LSCard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 100 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 100
▲ Last fig 100 at/above par 100LSLongshot read: 30-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 2%. A read, not a bet.
Also today · Jockey R2: Time To Dazzle 20-1, R4: Bless The Broken 20-1, R6: Lugal 30-1, R8: Bay City Roller 5-1 · Trainer R9: Forever Young 2-1Yoshito Yahagi takes over the training from *. Runs for $2,000,000 after a $1,040,634 race last out.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 367d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/6 SEO 5.96364f D Koreasprg3 G3 2nd/16 — 2.0-1 8/2 NII 4.97273f T Ibs Summr D G3 5th/17 — 2.8-1 6/27 HAK 5.96364f T Seikan S.271k 3rd/14 — 4.1-1 7BuiltL. Saez · W. CatalanoSaez · CatalanoA99 102 97►≡@trip 10210-1Fair 10-19%
► Steady99 102 97 ≡@trip 102ACard model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 97–102 · Best fig at today's trip 102 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 99 102 97
Also today · Jockey R1: Evanescence 15-1, R2: Shisospicy 15-1, R3: Owen Almighty 10-1, R4: Expensive Queen 15-1 +3 more★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTComes in off a victory in a 7-horse race at CD. Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Oct 13, in :46.80.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 13 (4F in :46.80), 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/12 CD 6½f D LvlTbScty Stk Won/7 99 0.7-1 b Prompt 3w;cleared;held 7/25 SAR 6f D AGVndbt G2 Won/6 102 1.2-1 b Frctious gate;out;4p2F 6/27 CD 6½f D Bango G3 2nd/6 -1L 97 1.7-1 b Bobbled;4-3p;fendd off 8Little ThunderJ. Velazquez · T. HammVelazquez · HammC96 98 95►≡@trip 9830-1Fair 30-13%
► Steady96 98 95 ≡@trip 98CCard model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #12 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 89–98 · Best fig at today's trip 98 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 96 98 95
Also today · Jockey R1: Praying 30-1, R2: Cy Fair 8-1, R3: Bracket Buster 7-2, R4: Gimme A Nother 10-1 +3 more★ FASTEST WORKPicks up 5 pounds from its last start. 3rd of 7 at 5F on Sep 24, in 1:01.40.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 24 (4F in :48.40), 1 work in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 KEE 6f D Phoenix G2 2nd/8 -½L 96 8.0-1 Stalked 4p;bid;outkckd 9/7 SAR 6f D OC 80k n2x Won/7 98 1.6-1 L Pressed 5-3w; got bob 2/14 TAM 6f D OC 16k n1x Won/9 95 1.4-1 L Prsd pc;2p;kick clear 9Nakatomi▼T. Gaffalione · W. WardGaffalione · WardC97 97 91►@trip 10112-1Fair 15-16%
► Steady97 97 91@trip 101C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesCard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 101 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 97 97 91
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesAlso today · Jockey R1: R Disaster 8-1, R3: Iron Man Cal 12-1, R4: Lush Lips 12-1, R7: Splendora 9-2 · Trainer R2: Bacio 5-2, R2: No Nay Hudson 15-1, R2: Outfielder 30-1, R4: Eccentric 30-1WON LASTDropped in well back early last out, 8th of 8 at the first call. Runs for $2,000,000 after a $400,000 race last out.
PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 19 (5F in 1:00.40), 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 KEE 6f D Phoenix G2 Won/8 by 3 97 2.3-1 2p;rallied ins;up late 8/22 SAR 6f D OC 110k b 4th/6 -2½L 97 2.7-1 L Off bit slw;2-4p;6p1/4 3/28 MEY 5.96364f D Dub Gldn Sh G1 5th/12 — — 10Roll on Big Joe▲▼J. Leparoux · R. Hess Jr.Leparoux · Hess Jr.C101 99 100►≡@trip 10230-1Fair 20-15%
► Steady101 99 100 ≡@trip 102C▲ Last fig 101 at/above par 100▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesCard model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 99–101 · Best fig at today's trip 102 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 101 99 100
▲ Last fig 101 at/above par 100▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSBack after 154 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. 5 wins from 14 starts at this distance.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 4 works in 30d, last 8d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 5/30 CD 6f D Aristdes G3 2nd/6 by hd 101 2.8-1 Stalk pair; duel upper 4/11 OP 6f D CtFltSpH G3 2nd/7 by hd 99 2.0-1 2-4p;dueled;2nd best 2/8 OP 6f D KingCottn Stk Won/5 100 0.7-1 3-4p;led1/8;held safe 11T O Elvis▲R. Sakai · D. TakayanagiSakai · TakayanagiA1067-2Fair 5-116%
—106A▲ Last fig 106 at/above par 1002Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 106
▲ Last fig 106 at/above par 100180D+ LAYOFFWON LASTHas run 106 against a 100 par for the class. 182 days since the last start, so it needs the works to say it's ready.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 4d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 5/2 CD 7f D CD G1 Won/11 106 5.9-1 4wrally;drv pst;cleard 12/14 NAK 5.96364f D Capella S. G3 Won/16 — 2.2-1 9/7 HSN 5.96364f D Aucklnd Th238k Won/12 — 0.3-1 12StradaleF. Prat · S. AsmussenPrat · AsmussenC95 91 85▲▲+9@trip 9720-1Fair 30-13%
▲▲ Big jump +995 91 85@trip 97CCard model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · Best fig at today's trip 97 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 95 91 85
Also today · Jockey R1: Ways And Means 7-5, R2: Yellow Card 8-1, R3: Further Ado 2-1, R4: Stellify 12-1 +4 more · Trainer R9: Magnitude 6-14 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTHas moved up each time out, 85 to 91 to 95. The Oct 17 work, 4F in :47.80, was the best time at that distance that morning.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (5wd rally; drifted late), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 17 (4F in :47.80), 4 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/19 PRX 6f D GalntBob G2 Won/9 95 1.6-1 5wd rally;drifted late 8/16 SAR 5½f T Mahony G3 Won/7 91 7.1-1 Out;3p;lead1/4;clr1/16 7/19 SAR 5½f T QuikCall G3 4th/12 -5½L 85 18-1 4path turn;improved 13Englishman▲J. Ortiz · C. DevauxOrtiz · DevauxA113 111 96▲▲+13↕@trip 934-5Fair 5-228%
▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best113 111 96 ↕@trip 93A▲ Last fig 113 at/above par 1001Card model 28% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 93–113 · Best fig at today's trip 93 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 113 111 96
▲ Last fig 113 at/above par 100Also today · Jockey R1: Explora 4-1, R2: Possiblemente 12-1, R2: No Nay Hudson 15-1, R4: Kathynmarissa 5-1 +4 more · Trainer R6: Brilliant Berti 30-1, R9: Golden Tempo 5-160D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTOwns the highest recent figure here at 113. Figures are climbing: 96, 111, 113 over its last three.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 23; 3 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/29 SAR 7f D HAJrknsM G1 Won/5 113 0.4-1 2-3p;ask3/16;respond 6/6 SAR 7f D WStphn G1 Won/9 111 4.3-1 Out;3-5p;shied in 1/8 5/2 CD 1m D PDayMile G2 2nd/11 96 1.7-1 Clear pace; no match
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (9 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
BC · RACE 5
UPCOMINGB.C. Sprint (G1)
Stakes, for 3-year-olds and up.
Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.
● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.89
The shape is the story here: 5 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #13 Englishman (early speed, M/L 4-5). Recent figures: 113 · 111 · 96. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #11 T O Elvis at 7-2. Use #3 Liam Smith in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #13 ENGLISHMAN (4-5) — but VULNERABLE: stepping up in class from last start; bounce risk — spiked to a new top last out, due to regress
- #13 ENGLISHMAN — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (36.4% to their 40.9%).
- #11 T O ELVIS — our #2 number, about right at the windows (17.2% to their 16.4%).
- #7 BUILT — our #4 number, a price play — we're at 7.4%, the board 6.7%.
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #3 LIAM SMITH (20-1) — our fair 4.9% is above the morning line's 3.5%; supported by: top barn (30%) + jockey (33%) at 20-1 (a hot trainer-jockey pairing; on our own re-test it did not beat its odds)
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #1 Mad House; pressure from #3 Liam Smith, #5 Listenupshance; the shape helps #9 Nakatomi; and works against #1 Mad House, #2 Dark Saffron, #3 Liam Smith.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
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