R3 BC · B.C. Dirt Mi Stakes (G1)

2:26 PM ET · 1 Mile Dirt · $1,000,000 · 11 runners2:26 PM · 1m Dirt · 11 runners

Upcoming $1000K · B.C. Dirt Mi Stakes (G1)

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

★ Distance horse: #10 Owen Almighty (10-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 102 from 3 tries. Not in our top three.

1Further Ado▲F. Prat · B. CoxPrat · CoxA105 98 98▲▲+102-1Fair 7-221%▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best105 98 98A▲ Last fig 105 at/above par 941

Card model 21% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Last 3 figs 105 98 98

▲ Last fig 105 at/above par 94

Jockey Flavien Prat 40% career · Trainer Brad H Cox 42% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Ways And Means 7-5, R2: Yellow Card 8-1, R4: Stellify 12-1, R5: Stradale 20-1 +4 more · Trainer R4: Bless The Broken 20-1, R4: Stellify 12-1, R7: Immersive 30-1

4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

Figure of 105 on the record sits above the 94 par. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 16 (5F in :59.80), 4 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/19	PRX	1⅛m D	PaDerby G1	2nd/10 -3L	105	2.0-1	Altr'd 4wd; late rally
7/18	MTH	1⅛m D	Haskell G1	5th/7 -4L	98	1.1-1	Stalked 4-5w; chased
6/7	CD	1 1/16 D	MattWinn G3	Won/8	98	0.7-1	Led by 3/8; kept task

2T Kraft▲J. Alvarado · W. MottAlvarado · MottC103 100 97▲+715-1Fair 20-14%▲ Up +7 · career best103 100 97C▲ Last fig 103 at/above par 94

Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Last 3 figs 103 100 97

▲ Last fig 103 at/above par 94

Jockey Junior Alvarado 34% career · Trainer William I Mott 34% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R7: Immersive 30-1, R9: Sovereignty 5-2 · Trainer R9: Sovereignty 5-2, R9: Knightsbridge 9-2

★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Comes in off a victory in a 9-horse race at BEL. Runs for $1,000,000 after a $250,000 race last out.

EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Sep 20; 2 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/1	BEL	7f D	Vosburgh G3	Won/9	103	5.9-1	b	Ins turn;ask2p1/4;held
8/29	SAR	7f D	Forego G1	3rd/6 -1½L	100	23-1	b	4w upper; repelled
7/25	SAR	6f D	AGVndbt G2	4th/6 -3½L	97	14-1	b	3p turn;6p3/16;chased

3Full Serrano▲J. Rosario · J. SadlerRosario · SadlerB103 89 92▲▲+14@trip 10110-1Fair 8-110%▲▲ Big jump +14103 89 92@trip 101B▲ Last fig 103 at/above par 943

Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · Best fig at today's trip 101 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 103 89 92

▲ Last fig 103 at/above par 94

Jockey Joel Rosario 33% career · Trainer John W Sadler 34% career

Also today · Jockey R7: Super Corredora 15-1 · Trainer R7: Super Corredora 15-1

60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

Back to a mile off a 1 1/4 miles race. Has won 6 of 11 going today's distance.

PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 6)

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 21 (4F in :47.40), 4 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
8/22	DMR	1¼m D	PacifcCl G1	3rd/11 -2L	103	9.0-1	Dueled inside;weakened
3/28	OP	1m D	OklwnMle G3	4th/7 -3½L	89	2.3-1	Stumbled;5p1/4;7p lane
1/24	GP	1⅛m D	PWCInvit G1	3rd/12 -1½L	92	9.5-1	2w; bid 1/4; held show

4Chunk of Gold▲J. Torres · E. WestTorres · WestB101 102 93▲+3≡8-1Fair 10-19%▲ Up +3101 102 93 ≡B▲ Last fig 101 at/above par 94

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +3 · ≡ Steady figures 93–102 · Last 3 figs 101 102 93

▲ Last fig 101 at/above par 94

Jockey Jaime A Torres 32% career · Trainer Ethan W West 36% career

Purse goes from $500,000 to $1,000,000, a step up. Finished 2nd in a 5-horse race at CD, beaten 2 lengths.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 8)

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 6 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	CD	1⅛m D	LuksClsc G2	2nd/5 -2L	101	2.6-1	b	2w;headd 5/16;held plc
8/15	MTH	1 1/16 D	PIselin G3	2nd/4 -½L	102	3.0-1	b	Battled back gamely
6/28	CD	1 1/16 D	OC 100k n3x	2nd/7 -1L	93	1.6-1	b	Pull/clip;keen;hld plc

5Coal Battle▲J. Vargas · L. BrileyVargas · BrileyB98 99 100▲+3@trip 1006-1Fair 10-110%▲ Up +398 99 100@trip 100B▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 94

Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +3 · Best fig at today's trip 100 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 98 99 100

▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 94

Jockey Juan P Vargas 29% career · Trainer Lonnie Briley 30% career

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

Runs for $1,000,000 after a $400,000 race last out. A 100 in its last five clears the 94 par for this level.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Oct 22; 3 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/26	CD	1m D	AckAck G3	2nd/7 -2L	98	4.8-1	4-3p;5p1/4;rally;miss
8/9	ELP	1m D	RACwbyJnsB200k	3rd/7 -2L	99	2.1-1	3p;ran on;missed place
6/28	CD	1m D	Hanshin G3	4th/10 -2½L	100	6.7-1	Ins;up place3/16;yield

6Lord FonsK. Yokoyama · S. YasudaYokoyama · Yasuda?15-1Fair 30-14%——?
Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #11 · Tier ?
Jockey Kazuo Yokoyama 14% career · Trainer Shogo Yasuda 14% career
60D LAYOFFWON LAST
Returns from a 129-day break, the biggest in the field. Changes barns, from S. *yasuda to Shogo Yasuda.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 4d back)
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
6/24 URA 6.95909f D Sakitama H842k Won/12 — 4.6-1
5/5 FUN 1m D Kashiwa Kn865k 3rd/13 — 24-1
3/24 KOC 6.95909f D Kurofune S341k 4th/12 — 3.4-1

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds
6/24	URA	6.95909f D	Sakitama H842k	Won/12	—	4.6-1
5/5	FUN	1m D	Kashiwa Kn865k	3rd/13	—	24-1
3/24	KOC	6.95909f D	Kurofune S341k	4th/12	—	3.4-1

7Bracket Buster▲J. Velazquez · V. OliverVelazquez · OliverA100 107 101▼-3≡@trip 1007-2Fair 7-113%▼ Down -3100 107 101 ≡@trip 100A▲ Last fig 100 at/above par 942

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 100–107 · Best fig at today's trip 100 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 100 107 101

▲ Last fig 100 at/above par 94

Jockey J R Velazquez 34% career · Trainer Victoria Oliver 26% career

Also today · Jockey R1: Praying 30-1, R2: Cy Fair 8-1, R4: Gimme A Nother 10-1, R5: Little Thunder 30-1 +3 more · Trainer R8: Telescopic 30-1

4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORK

Tops the field on speed figures, a 107 against 105 for the next best. Fastest 4F work of its morning on Oct 15 (:47.60), a sign it is training forwardly.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 15; 4 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	PRX	1m D	PRXDrtMil Stk	2nd/9 -6½L	100	0.5-1		Angled out;closed well
8/9	MNR	1 1/16 D	WVaGovnr Stk	Won/8	107	2.0-1	L	Won with authority
10/25	KEE	1⅛m D	Fayette G3	4th/11 -1½L	101	3.6-1		Ins;4w2nd;chsd wllngly

8Moonlight▼M. Franco · P. MillerFranco · MillerC91 98 98▼-6≡@trip 10115-1Fair 15-16%▼ Down -691 98 98 ≡@trip 101C▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -6 · ≡ Steady figures 91–98 · Best fig at today's trip 101 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 91 98 98

▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises

Jockey Manuel Franco 33% career · Trainer Peter Miller 30% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Simply Joking 30-1, R2: Roja 30-1, R4: Thought Process 15-1, R5: Liam Smith 20-1 +3 more · Trainer R5: Liam Smith 20-1

3 wins from 6 starts at this distance. Manuel Franco takes over from Jose L Ortiz in the saddle.

PACE HELPS Several horses want the lead, which is the early heat a closer is looking for.

WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 7 days ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/1	BEL	7f D	Vosburgh G3	7th/9 -6L	91	3.4-1	b	Slow to stride;2p turn
8/29	DMR	7f D	POBrien G2	2nd/10 -2½L	98	5.9-1	b	4-6wd;rallied;too late
7/25	DMR	6f D	BCrosby G1	3rd/8 -9L	98	47-1	b	Lagged; belated rally

9Forged Steel▲LSE. Gonzalez · S. Joseph Jr.Gonzalez · Joseph Jr.C104 91 104▲+3@trip 9715-1Fair 12-18%▲ Up +3104 91 104@trip 97C▲ Last fig 104 at/above par 94LS

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +3 · Best fig at today's trip 97 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 104 91 104

▲ Last fig 104 at/above par 94LS

Longshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Edwin Gonzalez 33% career · Trainer Saffie A Jr Joseph

Also today · Jockey R1: Kerry's Kiss 20-1 · Trainer R1: R Disaster 8-1, R1: Kerry's Kiss 20-1, R2: In Our Time 20-1, R7: Eunomia 30-1

★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Last start was a win, in a 9-horse race at SA at 13-1. Worked 4F in :47.20 on Sep 12, 3rd of 48 at the distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Sep 18 (4F in :47.60), 2 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Trip
9/26	SA	1⅛m D	Goodwood G1	Won/9	104	13-1	Prompted;kept to task
8/22	DMR	1¼m D	PacifcCl G1	7th/11 -7½L	91	24-1	Stalked ins-2wd;faded
7/4	SAR	1¼m D	Suburbn G2	5th/11 -7L	104	6.0-1	Buckled st; tired

10Owen Almighty▲★L. Saez · B. LynchSaez · LynchA96 101 102▼-4≡@trip 10210-1Fair 10-19%▼ Down -496 101 102 ≡@trip 102A▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 94★ Best at the trip 102

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -4 · ≡ Steady figures 96–102 · Best fig at today's trip 102 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 96 101 102

▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 94★ Best at the trip 102

Jockey Luis Saez 36% career · Trainer Brian A Lynch 36% career ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R1: Evanescence 15-1, R2: Shisospicy 15-1, R4: Expensive Queen 15-1, R5: Built 10-1 +3 more

3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

Figures have slipped: 102, 101, 96 over its last three. Jockey switch: Francisco Arrieta last out, Luis Saez today.

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Ins; shuffled; re-rally. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 3 works in 30d, last one 7d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	CD	1m D	AckAck G3	3rd/7 -2½L	96	2.5-1	b	Ins;shuffled;re-rally
8/9	ELP	1m D	RACwbyJnsB200k	Won/7	101	1.2-1	b	Ins pair 5/16; dug in
6/28	CD	1m D	Hanshin G3	2nd/10 -4L	102	7.1-1	b	3p;5p1/4;rallied

11Iron Man Cal▲T. Gaffalione · P. DamatoGaffalione · DamatoC98 95 91▲+6≡12-1Fair 15-16%▲ Up +6 · career best98 95 91 ≡C▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 94

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 89–98 · Last 3 figs 98 95 91

▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 94

Jockey Tyler Gaffalione 36% career · Trainer Philip Damato

Also today · Jockey R1: R Disaster 8-1, R4: Lush Lips 12-1, R5: Nakatomi 12-1, R7: Splendora 9-2 · Trainer R1: Majestic Oops 15-1, R2: Sorrento Sky 12-1, R4: Thought Process 15-1

60D LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LAST

Has moved up each time out, 91 to 95 to 98. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 88).

EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.

WORKS Routine prep: 4 works in 30d, last 7d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/29	DMR	7f D	POBrien G2	Won/10	98	8.2-1		Cleared 5/16; held
7/18	DMR	1 1/16 D	SnDiegoH G2	3rd/5 -½L	95	14-1		Up close;vie btw;flatn
6/7	SA	1m T	OC 80k n2x	Won/11 by ½	91	2.8-1	L	Ins;2-3w;wore down rvl

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (8 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

BC · RACE 3

UPCOMING

B.C. Dirt Mi Stakes (G1)

Field

11 runners

Purse

$1,000,000

Post

2:26 PM ET

Pace

Speed Duel

Card model top pick

#1 · 21%

Stakes, for 3-year-olds and up.

Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.

● Track record at 1 Mile: 93.85

The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.

Our number tops on #1 Further Ado (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 105 · 98 · 98. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #7 Bracket Buster at 7-2. Use #3 Full Serrano in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #1 FURTHER ADO (2-1) — our number agrees.
#1 FURTHER ADO — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (24.5% to their 25.3%).
#7 BRACKET BUSTER — our #2 number, about right at the windows (15.2% to their 16.9%).
#5 COAL BATTLE — our #4 number, about right at the windows (10.5% to their 10.8%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #9 FORGED STEEL (15-1) — our fair 5.6% is above the morning line's 4.7%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.

Likely leader: #4 Chunk Of Gold; pressure from #3 Full Serrano, #9 Forged Steel; the shape helps #8 Moonlight; and works against #3 Full Serrano, #4 Chunk Of Gold, #6 Lord Fons.

Lead

4Chunk Of Gold983Full Serrano929Forged Steel86

Press

2T Kraft897Bracket Buster8811Iron Man Cal881Further Ado8610Owen Almighty85

Stalk

5Coal Battle82

8Moonlight73

No style yet

6Lord Fons

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Chunk Of Gold

Full Serrano

T Kraft

Bracket Buster

Iron Man Cal

Further Ado

Forged Steel

Owen Almighty

Coal Battle

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Moonlight

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