1DamavandL. Saez · T. PletcherSaez · PletcherB87 78@trip 8720-1Fair 30-13%
—87 78@trip 87BCard model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 87 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 78
★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTLast start was a win, in an 11-horse maiden special weight race at KEE at 2.7-1. Moves up from maiden special weight to stakes gr1.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.00 on Oct 14 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/4 KEE 1 1/16 D MSW Won/11 by hd 87 2.7-1 Bmp;3w3/4;bid 2nd;duel 9/7 SAR 6f D MSW 4th/12 -8L 78 3.4-1 4w pursuit; improved 2GaudreauM. Franco · C. BrownFranco · Brown?8-1Fair 15-16%
—Debut?Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier ?
First career start, by Nyquist out of Free Cover. With 12 works on record, the first on Jul 11.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 8d agoLast three races
First start. By Nyquist out of Free Cover (Congrats)Trainer C. Brown: 2-year-olds: 19% wins, 51% in the money (518 starts)Jockey M. Franco in routes: 76 wins from 337 (23%)Work Trk Dist Time How Rank 10/23 BEL 4f :48.60 breezing 11/33 10/17 BEL 4f :48.00 breezing 6/10 9/26 SAR 4f :49.80 breezing 61/133 9/19 SAR 4f :47.80 breezing 4/55 9/12 SAR 4f :48.00 breezing 10/48 3Salahudin▲T. Gaffalione · B. BaffertGaffalione · BaffertA96 92 78▲▲+116-1Fair 8-111%
▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best96 92 78A▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 903Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · Last 3 figs 96 92 78
▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 904 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTRuns for $2,000,000 after a $300,000 race last out. Has run 96 against a 90 par for the class.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 25; 4 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/12 CD 1m D Iroquois G3 Won/7 96 1.0-1 b Blew st;4w;6p1/4;duel 8/9 ELP 7f D JuvenileB250k Won/7 92 1.3-1 b Vied 3-2wd;drove clear 7/17 ELP 6½f D MSW Won/9 78 0.6-1 b 4-3p;ask 3/8;drove clr 4Earth SongJ. Alvarado · J. DelgadoAlvarado · Delgado?20-1Fair 30-13%
—Debut?Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #8 · Tier ?
No race yet; there is gate work on its record, the latest on Aug 14. Debut for this Justify colt, whose dam is Sky Dreamer.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 5)WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 15 days agoLast three races
First start. By Justify out of Sky Dreamer (Sky Mesa)Trainer J. Delgado: 2-year-olds: 22% wins, 44% in the money (227 starts)Jockey J. Alvarado in routes: 21 wins from 150 (14%)Work Trk Dist Time How Rank 10/16 MTH 5f 1:04.00 breezing 2/2 9/19 MTH 5f 1:03.00 breezing 2/4 8/30 MTH 4f :48.40 breezing 5/94 8/22 MTH 5f 1:04.80 breezing 7/8 8/14 MTH 4f :48.40 handily 6/30 from gate 5Hughes▲F. Prat · B. BaffertPrat · BaffertA108 100 100▲▲+12@trip 1081-1Fair 7-543%
▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best108 100 100@trip 108A▲ Last fig 108 at/above par 901Card model 43% · Fair odds 7-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 108 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 108 100 100
▲ Last fig 108 at/above par 90WON LASTBest Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 108, with 99 next best. Winner of a 6-horse race at SA last time.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 6d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 SA 1 1/16 D AmPharoh G1 Won/6 108 0.3-1 b Ins;bid3-2wd;handily 9/6 DMR 7f D DMrFut G1 Won/5 100 0.2-1 b Outsd;3deep5/16;cleard 8/8 DMR 6f D BestPal G3 Won/5 100 1.5-1 b Vied ins;powered away 6American History▲J. Velazquez · T. PletcherVelazquez · PletcherB93 83@trip 939-2Fair 8-111%
—93 83@trip 93B▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 90Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 93 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 93 83
▲ Last fig 93 at/above par 90★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTComes in off a victory in a 6-horse race at KEE. Runs for $2,000,000 after a $650,000 race last out.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 14 (4F in :47.00), 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 KEE 1 1/16 D BrdrsFut G1 Won/6 by 3½ 93 5.0-1 Off slow;4p;left ld;up 8/22 SAR 6½f D MSW Won/9 83 9.6-1 5p trn;4p1/4;rally;clr 7Coach Pope▲J. Ortiz · K. McPeekOrtiz · McPeekA92 99 89►@trip 924-1Fair 5-117%
► Steady92 99 89@trip 92A▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 902Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 92 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 92 99 89
▲ Last fig 92 at/above par 90Purse goes from $650,000 to $2,000,000, a step up. The Sep 4 work, 5F in :58.00, was the best time at that distance that morning.
EVEN PACE Lands behind the duel without having to be part of it.WORKS SHARP 5f in :58.00 on Sep 4 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 KEE 1 1/16 D BrdrsFut G1 2nd/6 92 0.7-1 2w;long duel;brsh;cght 9/12 CD 1m D MSW Won/12 99 0.4-1 Took over;cruised away 8/8 SAR 6½f D MSW 2nd/8 -1½L 89 13-1 Ins;ask3p1/4;chsd;gain 8He Is No Lie▲▲LSJ. Rosario · D. O'NeillRosario · O'NeillB95 78 92▲▲+1015-1Fair 15-16%
▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best95 78 92B▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 90▲ Lone speed on early paceLSCard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Last 3 figs 95 78 92
▲ Last fig 95 at/above par 90▲ Lone speed on early paceLSLongshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 6% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSOff 49 days since the last start. 3rd of 8 at 3F on Oct 21, in :35.80.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 8)WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (3 works in 30d, last 10d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/12 CD 1m D Iroquois G3 2nd/7 -½L 95 4.7-1 2w;btw;duel;grudgingly 8/8 DMR 6f D BestPal G3 4th/5 -4½L 78 2.3-1 Stumbled badly; 4wide 6/28 CD 6f D BshfdMnr Stk 2nd/8 92 4.6-1 Dueld ins;cleard;naild
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
BCC · RACE 1
UPCOMINGB.C. Juvnle Stakes (G1)
Stakes, for colts and geldings, 2-year-olds.
Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.
● Track record at 1 1/16 Miles: 100.79
The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #5 Hughes (a presser/stalker, M/L 1-1). Recent figures: 108 · 100 · 100. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #7 Coach Pope at 4-1. Use #3 Salahudin in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #5 HUGHES (1-1) — our number agrees.
- #5 HUGHES — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (38.0% to their 38.7%).
- #7 COACH POPE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (17.6% to their 15.5%).
- #6 AMERICAN HISTORY — our #4 number, about right at the windows (13.2% to their 14.1%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #8 He Is No Lie; pressure from #2 Gaudreau, #4 Earth Song; and works against #2 Gaudreau, #4 Earth Song, #8 He Is No Lie.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
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