1Indian Pharoah▼S. Leon · H. MotionLeon · MotionA77 73 76►8-1Fair 12-18%
► Steady77 73 76A▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 83Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 77 73 76
▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 83Runs for $75,000 today after a $150,000 race last time. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 56d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 DEL 1m D RockyRunB150k 5th/7 -5L 77 13-1 Pressed;vied;weakened 9/9 DEL 6f D MSW Won/5 73 0.8-1 Under pressure; held 7/31 DEL 5½f D MSW 2nd/8 -¾L 76 3.5-1 4-5wd;late bid;hung 2Megaplumb▼LSJ. Morelos · D. HurtakMorelos · HurtakC69@trip 6920-1Fair 12-17%
—69@trip 69C▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 83LSCard model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 69 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 69
▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 83LSLongshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 7% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.
WON LASTWon last out in a 7-horse maiden claiming $25,000 race at GP. Changes barns, from La Cerda Armando De to Daniel Hurtak.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Brk slw; off heels; kick), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 2 works in 30d, last 9d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/27 GP 1m T MCL 25kc Won/7 by 1 69 3.1-1 b Brk slw;off heels;kick 3Sushi Party▼C. Gil · H. MotionGil · MotionA78 565-2Fair 5-116%
—78 56A▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 833Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 78 56
▼ Best fig 78 is 5+ under today's par 833 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LASTWinner of a 9-horse maiden special weight race at DEL last time. A step up in company: maiden special weight before, stakes nongraded today.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 3 works in 30d, last 15d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/10 DEL 7½f T MSW Won/9 by hd 78 2.3-1 Tracked ins; rallied 8/14 PID 5½f D MSW 2nd/6 -½L 56 2.8-1 Bid;led;outkick;2d bst 4Ready to Rage▼J. Ocasio · C. DavidOcasio · DavidC73 71 64▲+612-1Fair 12-18%
▲ Up +6 · career best73 71 64C▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 83Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · Last 3 figs 73 71 64
▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 83CLASS DROP3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LASTA 73 is the high figure lately, short of the 83 par. Has moved up each time out, 64 to 71 to 73.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 7d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/5 GP 7½f T MCL 25k Won/8 73 1.3-1 b Surge to lead;drw away 7/25 GP 5f T MCL 35k 3rd/5 -2½L 71 0.9-1 b Press;outfinish for 2d 6/26 GP 5f D MSW 4th/5 -7L 64 5.7-1 b Never threatened 5Palingo▼H. Figueroa · H. SmullenFigueroa · SmullenB72 70 64▲+56-1Fair 7-112%
▲ Up +5 · career best72 70 64B▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 83Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +5 · career best · Last 3 figs 72 70 64
▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 8360D LAYOFFWON LASTSwitches from dirt to turf. Figures are climbing: 64, 70, 72 over its last three.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 8d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/30 GP 1 1/16 D MSW Won/8 72 2.8-1 b Std'd 7/8; rallied 4wd 8/2 GP 7½f T MSW 3rd/7 -2½L 70 1.6-1 b Bore out 1T;held 3rd 7/4 GP 7½f T MSW 3rd/7 -3L 64 2.0-1 Stalkd;3-w bid;kept on 6HeraclesE. Perez · R. SpatzPerez · SpatzA79 82 68▲+43-1Fair 4-120%
▲ Up +479 82 68A1Card model 20% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · Last 3 figs 79 82 68
Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 82, with 78 next best. Purse drops from $400,000 to $75,000 against its last start.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 7d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/4 KEE 1 1/16 T Bourbon G2 9th/10 79 37-1 b 2p;bid 2w1/4;led;wknd 9/7 CNL 1 1/16 T KttensJoyB125k 3rd/7 -3L 82 4.0-1 b Std'd 3/4;in tight 3/8 7/4 GP 7½f T MSW Won/7 68 13-1 b Rate;ins bid 1/4;drvng 7Caribbean Comet▼J. Torrealba · P. BianconeTorrealba · BianconeC70 65 69▲+320-1Fair 20-15%
▲ Up +3 · career best70 65 69C▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 83Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▲ Up +3 · career best · Last 3 figs 70 65 69
▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 83Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Runs for $75,000 after a $45,000 race last out.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 12d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/4 GP 1 1/16 D Moc50000 2nd/6 -3L 70 3.1-1 b Closed late outside 9/6 GP 1 1/16 D Moc50000 4th/7 -4¾L 65 5.2-1 b 5wd; rallied too late 8/10 GP 7½f T sMdSpWt 5th/6 -5L 69 4.6-1 b Off slowly; steadied 8Lord Henry▼D. Herrera · J. OrsenoHerrera · OrsenoB71 76 68►7-2Fair 5-116%
► Steady71 76 68B▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 832Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 71 76 68
▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 833 WORKS IN 30 DAYSStretches out from 5 furlongs to a mile. Dropped in well back early last out, 8th of 8 at the first call.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 6d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/26 GP 5f T HlywdBchB100k 6th/8 -2½L 71 11-1 Passed tiring rivals 8/10 GP 7½f T sMdSpWt Won/6 76 0.7-1 Tracked; bid; clear 7/13 GP 5f T MSW 2nd/6 -5½L 68 4.3-1 b Awkward st; 3wd rally 9Mitzman▼L. Reyes · J. D'AngeloReyes · D'AngeloB77 658-1Fair 10-18%
—77 65B▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 83Card model 8% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 77 65
▼ Best fig 77 is 5+ under today's par 83Also today · Jockey R2: Mia Familia 7-2, R3: Khozalite 12-1 · Trainer R2: Mia Familia 7-2, R3: Khozalite 12-1WON LASTComes in off a victory in a 7-horse maiden special weight race at GP. Worked 4F in :47.40 on Sep 19, 3rd of 43 at the distance.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 36d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 GP 1 1/16 D MSW Won/7 by 1½ 77 2.2-1 b Stdy adv;held safe 8/30 GP 1 1/16 D MSW 4th/8 -8½L 65 6.6-1 b Broke in; hit gate
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (6 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
EQB · RACE 1
UPCOMINGArmd Force Stakes
Stakes, for 2-year-olds.
Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #6 Heracles (a presser/stalker, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 79 · 82 · 68. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #8 Lord Henry at 7-2. Use #3 Sushi Party in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #3 SUSHI PARTY (5-2) — our number has it ranked #3.
- #3 SUSHI PARTY — our #3 number, about right at the windows (20.2% to their 22.1%).
- #6 HERACLES — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (19.9% to their 19.3%).
- #8 LORD HENRY — our #2 number, about right at the windows (17.7% to their 17.2%).
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #2 MEGAPLUMB (20-1) — our fair 4.6% is above the morning line's 3.7%; supported by: 6-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.
Likely leader: #6 Heracles; pressure from #4 Ready To Rage, #8 Lord Henry.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
LEG 1 OF THE TROPICAL TURF PICK 3
BET OPTIONS
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