1Super Sienna▼J. Torrealba · V. Barboza Jr.Torrealba · Barboza Jr.B7612-1Fair 20-15%
—76B▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 83Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 76
▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 83Also today · Jockey R1: Caribbean Comet 20-1, R3: Redland Rebels 3-1 · Trainer this race: Amazonka 15-1Switches from dirt to turf. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.
EVEN PACE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS SHARP 4f in :47.00 on Sep 19 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 GP 1 1/16 D OC 25k n1x 6th/7 -6L 76 5.2-1 L Failed to menace 5/24 *HD 1¼m T Clsc Rpublc G3 7th/9 — — 4/26 *HD 1¼m T Clsc Pmpln G1 2nd/14 -1½L — — 2City MinuteR. Hughes · S. Joseph Jr.Hughes · Joseph Jr.A78 88 78▼-5@trip 882-1Fair 7-222%
▼ Down -578 88 78@trip 88A2Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 88 78
LASIX 1STPurse drops from $100,000 to $54,000 against its last start. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 88, with 86 next best.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 7d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/12 GP 1 1/16 D GngrPnchHB100k 5th/9 -3¼L 78 6.7-1 b No late kick 8/10 GP 1 1/16 T OC 25k n1x 2nd/8 by hd 88 2.1-1 b L Floated wide; gamely 7/11 GP 1 1/16 D PowderBrkB100k 6th/7 -2L 78 6.9-1 b Pace;tight 3/16;empty 3Gum▲D. Herrera · R. DibonaHerrera · DibonaA85 81 81▲+7@trip 815-2Fair 3-125%
▲ Up +7 · career best85 81 81@trip 81A▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 831Card model 25% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 81 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 81 81
▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 83CLASS DROPNew trainer: Ilkay Kantarmaci had it last time, Robert S Dibona now. Was running in optional claiming; today's allowance optional claiming is an easier level on paper.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 7d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/4 SAR 1 3/16 T OC 55k n1x 5th/10 -2½L 85 29-1 b L Saved grd; outfinished 8/12 SAR 1m T MCL 85kc Won/10 by 3 81 2.0-1 b L Bumped st; up late 7/10 SAR 1 1/16 T MCL 100k 3rd/8 -½L 81 4.9-1 b L Ins;split1/8;chckd1/16 4Brutally HonestY. Torres · M. CasseTorres · CasseB73 82 81▼-6@trip 826-1Fair 8-111%
▼ Down -673 82 81@trip 82BCard model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 73 82 81
CLASS DROPLast race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Beaten 7¾ lengths for 6th in a 7-horse optional claiming race at GP.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 22 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/6 GP 1 1/16 D OC 25k n1x 6th/7 -7¾L 73 8.5-1 b L Bmp'd st; no rally 9/14 WO 1 1/16 T OC 50k n2l 3rd/9 -3½L 82 5.8-1 b L Inside to str; kept on 8/2 WO 1m T OC 50k n2l 3rd/9 -4L 81 8.8-1 b L Off slow;2-3w;shift 5w 5AmazonkaE. Perez · V. Barboza Jr.Perez · Barboza Jr.?15-1Fair 20-14%
——?Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier ?
60D LAYOFFLASIX 1STBack after 160 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Changes barns, from Viza Romulo Raphael *herrera to Victor Jr Barboza.
EVEN PACE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 21d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 5/24 *HD 1¼m T Clsc Rpublc G3 6th/9 — — 4/26 *HD 1¼m T Clsc Pmpln G1 13th/14 -1½L — — 3/22 *HD 1 3/16 T Clsc Mr July9k 8th/9 — — 6Mia FamiliaL. Reyes · J. D'AngeloReyes · D'AngeloA81 82 80►≡@trip 827-2Fair 5-116%
► Steady81 82 80 ≡@trip 82A3Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 80–82 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 82 80
Also today · Jockey R1: Mitzman 8-1, R3: Khozalite 12-1 · Trainer R1: Mitzman 8-1, R3: Khozalite 12-1CLASS DROP3rd last time, 1½ lengths back, in a field of 7. Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 7d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 GP 1 1/16 D OC 25k n1x 3rd/7 -1½L 81 1.4-1 b L Loomed 4w; not enough 8/30 DMR 1m T OC 80k n1x 4th/8 82 9.6-1 b L Brk in/bpd;4-3w;bid3w 8/9 DMR 1m T OC 80k n1x 3rd/6 80 4.6-1 b L Duel inside;flattened 7Ditched▲LSM. Meneses · N. TomlinsonMeneses · TomlinsonB86 72 73▲▲+12@trip 7910-1Fair 10-19%
▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best86 72 73@trip 79B▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 83LSCard model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 79 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 72 73
▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 83LSLongshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.
CLASS DROP2 wins from 5 starts at this distance. Dropped in well back early last out, 5th of 5 at the first call.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 71d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/25 GP 1 1/16 D Clm 20k 3rd/5 -6L 86 4.3-1 b L Trailed 2-4p; kept on 9/6 GP 1 1/16 D OC 25k n1x 7th/7 -7¾L 72 5.5-1 b L Urged along; no rally 7/19 GP 1m T Clm 20k c 3rd/6 -3L 73 1.1-1 b L 3-4w bid; willingly 8Champagne Brunch▲J. Rios · A. SanoRios · SanoC68 70 76►@trip 7730-1Fair 30-13%
► Steady68 70 76@trip 77C▲ Lone speed on early paceCard model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 77 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 70 76
▲ Lone speed on early paceGoes 1 1/16 miles after running 5½ furlongs last time. Figures have slipped: 76, 70, 68 over its last three.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 21d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/16 GP 5½f D OC 25k n1x 4th/7 -8½L 68 10-1 b L Hit gt;svgnd;no threat 9/27 GP 5f T OC 25k n1x 8th/9 -9¾L 70 29-1 b L Evenly; no threat 9/4 GP 5f D MSW Won/6 by 1 76 3.9-1 b L Shuffled;angl out;best 9Geaux AmyJ. Santos · D. ZanelliSantos · ZanelliC77 80 79▼-3≡20-1Fair 20-15%
▼ Down -377 80 79 ≡CCard model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -3 · ≡ Steady figures 77–80 · Last 3 figs 77 80 79
★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTWon last out in an 8-horse $16,000 claiming race at GP. Sheds 6 pounds from its last start.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 19; 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 GP 1 1/16 D Clm 17k b Won/8 by ½ 77 2.1-1 b L Determined drv;prevail 7/11 GP 1 1/16 D Clm 17k n2x Won/9 80 1.5-1 b L Rate;rail bid upr;drvg 7/3 GP 1 1/16 D Clm 17k b 2nd/6 -5L 79 3.2-1 b L 3-4w bid;closing in
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
EQB · RACE 2
UPCOMINGOptional Claiming $25,000
Claiming $25,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #3 Gum (a closer, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 85 · 81 · 81. Backup is #2 City Minute at 2-1. Use #6 Mia Familia in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #2 CITY MINUTE (2-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
- #2 CITY MINUTE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (24.4% to their 25.8%).
- #3 GUM — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (23.0% to their 22.1%).
- #6 MIA FAMILIA — our #3 number, about right at the windows (17.5% to their 17.2%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.
Likely leader: #8 Champagne Brunch; pressure from #2 City Minute, #9 Geaux Amy.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
LEG 2 OF THE TROPICAL TURF PICK 3
BET OPTIONS
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