1Gun Runner CharlieLSA. Aguilar · P. MillerAguilar · MillerB70 99 90▼▼-22↕15-1Fair 12-18%
▼▼ Big drop -2270 99 90 ↕BLSCard model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -22 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 70–99 · Last 3 figs 70 99 90
LSLongshot read: 15-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 8% against a line of 5%. A read, not a bet.
180D+ LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSFreshened 204 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Class relief: optional claiming last time, allowance optional claiming today.
EVEN PACE A stalking spot behind a contested lead is the useful one in this shape.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 5F on Sep 23; 4 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 4/9 OP 1 1/16 D OC 62k n2x 7th/7 -14L 70 2.1-1 b L Hop st; 4-3p; yield1/4 3/8 OP 1⅛m D OC 62k n2x 2nd/8 by hd 99 3.4-1 b L Bid3p5/16;dug in5p str 2/16 OP 1m D Alw n1x Won/9 by hd 90 2.4-1 b L Bid2p5/16;bmp duel str 2MirahmadiR. Gonzalez · B. BaffertGonzalez · BaffertB77 84 101▼▼-18↕@trip 876-1Fair 7-112%
▼▼ Big drop -1877 84 101 ↕@trip 87BCard model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -18 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 77–101 · Best fig at today's trip 87 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 84 101
60D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKBack to 6½ furlongs off a a mile race. Figure of 101 on the record sits above the 92 par.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 1)WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Oct 24; 3 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/30 DMR 1m D OC 100k b 9th/9 -8¾L 77 6.0-1 L 4wide trip; tired 7/18 DMR 1 1/16 D SnDiegoH G2 5th/5 -3L 84 3.9-1 Led;vied inside;folded 7/26 DMR 1 1/16 D SnDiegoH G2 2nd/6 101 17-1 b Inside; no match late 3Mr. Disrespectful▼T. Pereira · C. DollasePereira · DollaseB88 84 90►≡@trip 9012-1Fair 15-17%
► Steady88 84 90 ≡@trip 90B▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesCard model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 84–90 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 88 84 90
▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance risesBest Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 104, with 101 next best. Finished 3rd in a 5-horse allowance race at SA, beaten 1 length.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 4 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 SA 7f D Alw s 3rd/5 -1L 88 4.6-1 L Vie3deep;duel2w;faltrd 9/19 LRC 1m D sEBJohnstnB75k 3rd/5 -1L 84 8.0-1 3w;duel2w;floatd out 8/28 DMR 6½f D OC 100k b 4th/6 -2L 90 6.3-1 L Press inside;weakened 4Captivator▲A. Ayuso · J. SadlerAyuso · SadlerA90 100 94▼-5@trip 823-2Fair 3-126%
▼ Down -590 100 94@trip 82A▲ Lone speed on early pace2Card model 26% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -5 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 90 100 94
▲ Lone speed on early paceLASIX 1ST3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSPurse drops from $400,000 to $68,000 against its last start. Beaten ½ length for 3rd in a 9-horse race at PRX.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (3 works in 30d, last 5d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/19 PRX 6f D GalntBob G2 3rd/9 -½L 90 2.3-1 Stmbl'd st; 4w bid 7/31 DMR 6f D OC 100k b Won/7 100 8.4-1 L 3deep;clear;held well 6/6 SA 6f D OC 50k n1x Won/6 94 4.0-1 L Speed;held well;FTG 5Ahrens▲H. Berrios · J. SadlerBerrios · SadlerA98 90 65▲▲+18↕@trip 982-1Fair 7-222%
▲▲ Big jump +18 · career best98 90 65 ↕@trip 98A▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 923Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +18 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 65–98 · Best fig at today's trip 98 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 98 90 65
▲ Last fig 98 at/above par 9260D LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LASTHas moved up each time out, 65 to 90 to 98. Last start was a win, in a 9-horse optional claiming race at DMR at 14-1.
PACE CHALLENGE One of several that want the lead, so the early work will cost something. (early-speed points: 8)WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 3 works in 30d, last one 7d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/1 DMR 6½f D OC 50k n1x Won/9 98 14-1 L Brk in/bp;clear;safely 5/17 SA 6f D OC 50k Won/8 90 4.8-1 L Speed; kicked clear1/8 3/29 SA 1m T OC 50k 7th/7 -6½L 65 6.6-1 L Stalk2w;tight past 1/4 6Speedy WilsonT. Baze · P. DamatoBaze · DamatoA87 95 95▼▼-8≡@trip 953-1Fair 3-126%
▼▼ Big drop -887 95 95 ≡@trip 95A1Card model 26% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · ≡ Steady figures 87–95 · Best fig at today's trip 95 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 95 95
LASIX 1ST3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSCuts back from a mile to 6½ furlongs. Dropped in well back early last out, 5th of 5 at the first call.
PACE HELPS The front end should be a fight, and this one gets to wait on it.WORKS SHARP 4f in :49.00 on Sep 8 was the best time at that distance that morning; 3 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/19 LRC 1m D sEBJohnstnB75k 2nd/5 -2L 87 2.6-1 b Ins;2-3w;no final kick 8/28 DMR 6½f D OC 100k b 2nd/6 -6L 95 2.0-1 b L 3-5wide; full of run 7/31 DMR 6f D OC 100k b 4th/7 -2L 95 2.3-1 b L 2-3wide; evenly late
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
EQK · RACE 2
UPCOMINGOptional Claiming $80,000
Claiming $80,000, for 3-year-olds and up.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #6 Speedy Wilson (a closer, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 87 · 95 · 95. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #4 Captivator at 3-2. Use #5 Ahrens in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #4 CAPTIVATOR (3-2) — our number has it ranked #2.
- #4 CAPTIVATOR — our #2 number, about right at the windows (29.9% to their 31.6%).
- #5 AHRENS — our #3 number, about right at the windows (25.0% to their 26.3%).
- #6 SPEEDY WILSON — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (21.7% to their 19.8%).
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #1 GUN RUNNER CHARLIE (15-1) — our fair 5.7% is above the morning line's 4.9%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #4 Captivator; pressure from #5 Ahrens, #2 Mirahmadi; the shape helps #6 Speedy Wilson; and works against #2 Mirahmadi, #4 Captivator, #5 Ahrens.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
RACE 4 FROM SANTA ANITA
LEG B OF THE COAST TO COAST PICK 5
BET OPTIONS
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