1Prime Artist▲R. Gonzalez · B. WrightGonzalez · WrightA87 88 74▲+7@trip 883-1Fair 4-121%
▲ Up +787 88 74@trip 88A▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 822Card model 21% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 88 74
▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 82An 88 in its last five clears the 82 par for this level. Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power.
EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 33 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 SA 6f T OC 50k 2nd/8 -3L 87 5.8-1 b L Bk out/bp;ins;angl out 9/6 DMR 5f T OC 50k Won/10 by 1 88 38-1 b L 2w;angled out;led;held 6/7 SA 1m T OC 50k 4th/9 -4L 74 3.5-1 L Ins;btwn1/4;lost 3rd 2Chapter One▲M. Americano · R. LucasAmericano · LucasB89 82 76▲+630-1Fair 30-13%
▲ Up +689 82 76B▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 82Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +6 · Last 3 figs 89 82 76
▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 82Moves up from allowance to optional claiming. Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 8)WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 1 work in 30d and the last 20 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/18 LA 4.54545f D Alw n3l 4th/10 -3¼L 89 5.7-1 b L Came out st;3p;kept 9/20 LA 3.95455f D Alw n1ml 3rd/4 -4¾L 82 5.0-1 b L Bpd/took up early 9/11 LRC 5½f D Clm 20k n3lc 4th/8 by hd 76 3.7-1 b L Led ins;clear;yielded 3Jalisco▲C. Herrera · R. LucasHerrera · LucasB88 89 64▲▲+10↕30-1Fair 50-12%
▲▲ Big jump +1088 89 64 ↕B▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 82Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #8 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 64–89 · Last 3 figs 88 89 64
▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 82Switches from dirt to turf. A step up in company: allowance before, optional claiming today.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.80 on Jun 19 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/18 LA 4.54545f D Alw n3l 5th/10 -5¾L 88 24-1 b L Settled 2w;need more 9/27 LA 4.54545f D Alw n3l 5th/6 -8¾L 89 3.9-1 b L Trailed; belatedly 3p 9/11 LRC 5½f D Clm 20k n3l 8th/8 -5L 64 17-1 b L Up close ins;weakened 4Opus Uno▲LSA. Ayuso · P. MillerAyuso · MillerC84 84 62▲▲+9↕@trip 828-1Fair 10-19%
▲▲ Big jump +984 84 62 ↕@trip 82C▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 82LSCard model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 62–84 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 84 62
▲ Last fig 84 at/above par 82LSLongshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 9% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.
Also today · Jockey R2: Captivator 3-2, R5: Icecream Ontheside 5-2 · Trainer R2: Gun Runner Charlie 15-1CLASS UP6th last time, 2 lengths back, in a field of 8. Armando Ayuso takes over from Joel Rosario in the saddle.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 6d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 SA 6f T OC 50k 6th/8 -2L 84 6.1-1 b L Sent;paused;chsd ins 9/11 LRC 5½f D Clm 20k n3l 2nd/8 -½L 84 8.1-1 b L Crowded erly;2w;denied 8/27 DMR 6½f D Clm 50k 5th/5 -14L 62 8.1-1 b L 3-4wide; no menace 5Triple Diamonds▲A. Lezcano · M. GlattLezcano · GlattB86 85 57▲▲+16↕@trip 866-1Fair 8-110%
▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best86 85 57 ↕@trip 86B▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 82Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +16 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 57–86 · Best fig at today's trip 86 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 86 85 57
▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 82180D+ LAYOFFCLASS UPFreshened 447 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Has moved up each time out, 57 to 85 to 86.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 14d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/9 DMR 5f T OC 80k n1x 4th/7 -2½L 86 4.3-1 L Ins;angled;outclosed 6/1 SA 6f T sOC50000n1x 2nd/7 -1½L 85 4.6-1 L Waited ins-2w;willngly 5/4 SA 5½f D sOC50000n1x 8th/8 -7L 57 9.8-1 L 4wd;bpd into str;wknd 6ThrowthefirstpunchK. Frey · D. O'NeillFrey · O'NeillC81 59 76▲▲+11↕@trip 7620-1Fair 15-16%
▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best81 59 76 ↕@trip 76C3Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #3 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 59–81 · Best fig at today's trip 76 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 59 76
WON LASTCuts back from 6½ furlongs to 5 furlongs. Last start was a win, in a 7-horse maiden claiming $50,000 race at SA at 2.7-1.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 33 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/12 SA 6½f T MCL 50k Won/7 by ½ 81 2.7-1 b L 3wd turn;wore down rvl 9/7 DMR 1m T sMdSpWt 7th/8 -6L 59 4.5-1 b L Press2w;vie btwn;tired 8/15 DMR 5f T sMdSpWt 3rd/10 -1½L 76 6.4-1 b L Alter out/in turn;game 7Henry Adams▲T. Baze · S. KnappBaze · KnappA85 77 89►5-1Fair 8-111%
► Steady85 77 89A▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 82Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 85 77 89
▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 82Has run 89 against a 82 par for the class. Beaten 2 lengths for 3rd in an 8-horse optional claiming race at SA.
EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Aug 24 (3F in :35.20), 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 SA 6f T OC 50k 3rd/8 -2L 85 13-1 L Chased 3wd; willingly 8/30 DMR 1m T OC 50k 12th/12 -7¼L 77 8.2-1 L 3-2w;3-5w;no menace 8/2 DMR 1 1/16 T OC 50k c 4th/9 -4L 89 3.3-1 L Ins;missed 2nd & 3rd 8Proof He Goes▲D. Van · G. PapaprodromouVan · PapaprodromouA90 85 79▲▲+11@trip 791-1Fair 8-538%
▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best90 85 79@trip 79A▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 821Card model 38% · Fair odds 8-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 79 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 90 85 79
▲ Last fig 90 at/above par 82CLASS DROPWON LASTFigures are climbing: 79, 85, 90 over its last three. A big drop, optional claiming to optional claiming, and worth asking why.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 2 works in 30d and the last 5d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 SA 6f T sOC20000n1x Won/8 by 3½ 90 11-1 b L 2wd;late run;up wire 8/29 DMR 6f D sMd50000 Won/11 by ½ 85 4.0-1 b L Brf spd;ins-2w;drw clr 7/19 DMR 5f T sMdSpWt 2nd/12 79 5.3-1 b L Vied inside;led;nailed
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
EQK · RACE 4
UPCOMINGOptional Claiming $50,000
Claiming $50,000, for 3-year-olds and up.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #8 Proof He Goes (a presser/stalker, M/L 1-1). Recent figures: 90 · 85 · 79. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #1 Prime Artist at 3-1. Use #6 Throwthefirstpunch in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #8 PROOF HE GOES (1-1) — our number agrees.
- #8 PROOF HE GOES — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (36.3% to their 39.0%).
- #1 PRIME ARTIST — our #2 number, about right at the windows (21.2% to their 19.5%).
- #7 HENRY ADAMS — our #5 number, about right at the windows (12.8% to their 13.0%).
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #6 THROWTHEFIRSTPUNCH (20-1) — our fair 4.6% is above the morning line's 3.7%; supported by: 4-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #2 Chapter One; pressure from #8 Proof He Goes, #4 Opus Uno; the shape helps #3 Jalisco, #4 Opus Uno, #5 Triple Diamonds; and works against #2 Chapter One.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
RACE 5 FROM SANTA ANITA
LEG D OF THE COAST TO COAST PICK 5
BET OPTIONS
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