1Gray Thunder▼T. Pereira · S. KnappPereira · KnappA67 77 75▼▼-9@trip 779-2Fair 8-112%
▼▼ Big drop -967 77 75@trip 77A▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (67 vs 77)Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 77 75
▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (67 vs 77)Class relief: maiden special weight last time, maiden claiming $50,000 today. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 26d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/16 SA 1m T sMdSpWt 7th/8 -4¼L 67 14-1 b L 3deep;3-2wd;weakened 5/9 SA 1m T sMdSpWt 3rd/6 -2L 77 2.5-1 L Bmpd st;ins-2w;mvd out 1/19 SA 1m T sMdSpWt 5th/11 -5¼L 75 26-1 L Off slow;altrd out 3/8 2ShapovalE. Esquivel · P. MillerEsquivel · MillerB47 79 67▼▼-25↕@trip 818-1Fair 8-112%
▼▼ Big drop -2547 79 67 ↕@trip 81B3Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -25 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 47–79 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 47 79 67
CLASS DROP4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSLast race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Moves up from maiden claiming $12,500 to maiden claiming $50,000.
PACE CHALLENGE Has early speed but company on the front end. (early-speed points: 2)WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 4 works in 30d, last 7d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/19 LRC 1m D sMd12500v 9th/9 -9½L 47 3.2-1 b L Stalked inside;eased 9/3 DMR 1 1/16 T sMd50000 4th/9 -2L 79 4.3-1 b L Ins;tip3w;bid;no kick 7/19 WO 7½f T Moc40000 5th/8 -7L 67 3.0-1 b L Toss head brk;4-5w 2nd 3Hammerbarn▼A. Escobedo · R. HansonEscobedo · HansonC66 72@trip 6612-1Fair 15-17%
—66 72@trip 66C▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 79Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Best fig at today's trip 66 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 66 72
▼ Best fig 72 is 5+ under today's par 798th last time, 8¾ lengths back, in a field of 10. A 72 top number against a 79 par, so it fits the level.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 10d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/26 SA 1m T sMd50000 8th/10 -8¾L 66 68-1 b L Hop st;rank;pulled 9/3 DMR 1 1/16 T sMd50000 7th/9 -7¾L 72 41-1 b L Step slow;2w;2-3w;wknd 4Desert Hawk▼A. Ayuso · J. Hernandez Jr.Ayuso · Hernandez Jr.C58 70 63▼▼-11@trip 7030-1Fair 50-12%
▼▼ Big drop -1158 70 63@trip 70C▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 79Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Best fig at today's trip 70 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 58 70 63
▼ Best fig 73 is 5+ under today's par 79Switches from dirt to turf. 0 for 4 at today's distance.
EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 57 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/9 SA 1m D sMd12500 6th/8 -4L 58 7.9-1 b L 4-3wd;3wd;weakened 9/19 LRC 1m D sMd12500 5th/9 -5½L 70 8.0-1 b L Bpd st;3w;2-3w;flatten 8/13 DMR 1m D sMd12500 5th/10 -3¼L 63 4.4-1 b L 3wd;2wd;evenly late 5Milken CookiesJ. Spencer · P. DamatoSpencer · DamatoA76 665-2Fair 9-218%
—76 66A2Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 76 66
Also today · Jockey R2: Miss Nightfall 3-1, R3: Poor Connection 9-2 · Trainer R2: Lady In Paris 15-14 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKOff 58 days since the last start. Fastest 5F work of its morning on Oct 25 (1:00.80), a sign it is training forwardly.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:00.80 on Oct 25 was the best time at that distance that morning; 4 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/3 DMR 1 1/16 T sMd50000 6th/9 -4L 76 7.1-1 b L 2wd;2-4wd;weakened 6/7 SA 6f T sMdSpWt 7th/10 -5¾L 66 5.0-1 b L Tight early;svd ground 6Joe Vittori▲LSA. Aguilar · J. ValdezAguilar · ValdezB79 56 42▲▲+2720-1Fair 20-15%
▲▲ Big jump +27 · career best79 56 42B▲ Last fig 79 at/above par 79LSCard model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +27 · career best · Last 3 figs 79 56 42
▲ Last fig 79 at/above par 79LSLongshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 5% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.
◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLEGoes a mile after running 6 furlongs last time. Has moved up each time out, 42 to 56 to 79.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 2 works in 30d, last 5d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 SA 6f T sMdSpWt 4th/9 -4½L 79 27-1 b L 3deep;came in/bpd3/8 9/13 LRC 6f D sMd50000 5th/7 -7½L 56 25-1 b L 4deep;3-2w;no threat 8/2 LA 4.54545f D MSW 2nd/6 -4½L — 4.6-1 b L Bpd st;2p;earned 2nd 7Papa SantosT. Baze · D. DunhamBaze · DunhamB64 75 76▼▼-108-1Fair 10-19%
▼▼ Big drop -1064 75 76BCard model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Last 3 figs 64 75 76
Figures have slipped: 76, 75, 64 over its last three. A longer trip: 5½ furlongs last out, a mile today.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (Rough st; 3w-ins; swung), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 7d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 SA 5½f D sMd50000 5th/8 -5½L 64 6.1-1 L Rough st;3w-ins;swung 8/13 DMR 6f D sMdSpWt 5th/11 -6½L 75 8.6-1 L 2-3w;angled out 1/8 7/5 LRC 5½f D sMdSpWt 2nd/11 -4½L 76 9.7-1 L Bpd st;2wd;up for 2nd 8Wicked SpudD. Lopez · A. SaavedraLopez · SaavedraC62 72 76▼▼-1030-1Fair 30-13%
▼▼ Big drop -1062 72 76CCard model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Last 3 figs 62 72 76
Maiden through 7 starts. A step up in company: maiden claiming $12,500 before, maiden claiming $50,000 today.
EVEN PACE Real pressure up front should bring the pace back to it.WORKS Routine prep: 2 works in 30d, last 6d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/9 SA 1m D sMd12500 3rd/8 -6½L 62 6.9-1 b L Ins;2w;angled widest 9/5 DMR 6½f D sMdSpWt 6th/10 -14L 72 81-1 b L 5wide;pass tired rvls 8/20 DMR 6f D sMd12500 4th/12 -9½L 76 70-1 b L Brk out/bpd;2w;angled 9Henie in Black▼R. Gonzalez · B. GalvinGonzalez · GalvinC5615-1Fair 20-14%
—56C▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 79Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 56
▼ Best fig 56 is 5+ under today's par 794 WORKS IN 30 DAYSA 56 is the high figure lately, short of the 79 par. Beaten 20 lengths for 10th in a 10-horse maiden special weight race at DMR.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 7d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/5 DMR 6½f D sMdSpWt 10th/10 -20L 56 72-1 L Brk in/bmpd; 4-2-3wide 10Doing Time▲★A. Lezcano · F. RondanLezcano · RondanA79 81 86▼-5≡@trip 842-1Fair 5-228%
▼ Down -579 81 86 ≡@trip 84A▲ Last fig 79 at/above par 79★ Best at the trip 841Card model 28% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -5 · ≡ Steady figures 79–86 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 81 86
▲ Last fig 79 at/above par 79★ Best at the trip 843 WORKS IN 30 DAYSBest Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 86, with 79 next best. Winless in 9 starts at this distance.
EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 3 works in 30d, last 6d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/26 SA 1m T sMd50000 3rd/10 -1L 79 3.3-1 b L Btw 2w-ins;outkicked 9/7 DMR 1m T sMdSpWt 3rd/8 -3½L 81 6.8-1 b L Lack room/chck past1/4 8/16 DMR 1 1/16 T sMdSpWt 3rd/6 -1½L 86 14-1 b L Bpd early;ins;no match
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: #2 is the only true speed and could control it.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
EQZ · RACE 1
UPCOMINGMaiden Claiming $50,000
Maiden Claiming, for 3-year-olds and up, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.
Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #10 Doing Time (a closer, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 79 · 81 · 86. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #5 Milken Cookies at 5-2. Use #2 Shapoval in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #10 DOING TIME (2-1) — our number agrees.
- #10 DOING TIME — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (26.8% to their 26.2%).
- #5 MILKEN COOKIES — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.2% to their 22.4%).
- #1 GRAY THUNDER — our #4 number, about right at the windows (13.0% to their 14.3%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #2 Shapoval; the shape helps #5 Milken Cookies, #7 Papa Santos; and works against #2 Shapoval, #3 Hammerbarn, #6 Joe Vittori.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
LEG 1 OF THE SANTA ANITA ALL TURF PICK 3
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