★ Distance horse: #4 Little Jamie (10-1) has the best figure in the field at today's distance and surface: 93 from 3 tries. Not in our top three.
1Miss Nightfall▼J. Spencer · J. ThomasSpencer · ThomasB79@trip 793-1Fair 5-116%
—79@trip 79B▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 862Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 79 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 79
▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 86Also today · Jockey R1: Milken Cookies 5-2, R3: Poor Connection 9-2 · Trainer this race: As Catch Can 20-1, this race: Ambaya 4-1WON LASTComes in off a victory in a 6-horse allowance race at SAR. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.TROUBLED TRIP Ran into trouble last out (5-6w uppr; edged away), and the figure already reflects it.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 14d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/7 SAR 1m T Alw n1x Won/6 by 1 79 2.1-1 L 5-6w uppr; edged away 6/17 ASC 1m T Knsngtn Pl158k 2nd/24 — 12-1 4/28 GTY 7f T Brtsh Stlln33k 5th/7 — 1.9-1 2As Catch CanR. Gonzalez · J. ThomasGonzalez · ThomasC85 83 81►≡@trip 8120-1Fair 20-14%
► Steady85 83 81 ≡@trip 81CCard model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 81–86 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 83 81
Also today · Jockey R1: Henie In Black 15-1, R3: Prince Dolce 4-1 · Trainer this race: Miss Nightfall 3-1, this race: Ambaya 4-1180D+ LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKBack after 307 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. The longest gap in the field. Runs for $100,000 today after a $300,000 race last time.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.WORKS SHARP 4f in :46.40 on Oct 15 was the best time at that distance that morning; 4 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 12/28 SA 1¼m T AmrcnOks G1 9th/11 -5¾L 85 14-1 Ins;ins-3w;angled late 9/6 CNL 1⅛m T OldDmnOak Stk Won/8 by 1 83 16-1 Patient;rail bid;game 7/19 DMR 1m T SnClmntH G2 6th/9 -5L 81 40-1 2wd-ins;ins;no threat 3May Day Ready▲D. Van · R. MandellaVan · MandellaB88 94 89►≡@trip 895-1Fair 7-113%
► Steady88 94 89 ≡@trip 89B▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 863Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 84–94 · Best fig at today's trip 89 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 88 94 89
▲ Last fig 88 at/above par 86Purse drops from $200,000 to $100,000 against its last start. Back to a mile off a 1 1/4 miles race.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 7d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 SA 1¼m T RodeoDr G2 7th/11 -7¾L 88 5.9-1 b 2wd;2-3wd;angled out 9/6 KD 1 1/16 T frOneDreamr Stk Won/2 94 0.7-1 b Broke in;pulled away 7/25 DMR 1m T frOsunitas Stk 3rd/7 -1½L 89 4.1-1 Ins;aim2-3wd;willingly 4Little Jamie▲▼★T. Pereira · S. Joseph Jr.Pereira · Joseph Jr.B87 93 87►@trip 9310-1Fair 12-17%
► Steady87 93 87@trip 93B▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 86▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises★ Best at the trip 93Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 93 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 93 87
▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 86▼ Age 5+ at a price, figures fall as the distance rises★ Best at the trip 934 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LASTFigure of 93 on the record sits above the 86 par. Won last out in a 7-horse optional claiming race at KD.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.WORKS SHARP 3f in :36.00 on Oct 3 was the best time at that distance that morning; 4 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/3 KD 1m T OC 80k n2x Won/7 87 3.9-1 b L Trck 3w;held off foe 8/16 GP 1m T Handicap 2nd/7 -1L 93 4.3-1 b L 4wd; led late; caught 5/16 GP 1m T MonroeB100k 3rd/8 -2½L 87 18-1 b Bid btw 3/8; willing 5Bojaca Blessing▲H. Berrios · J. D'AngeloBerrios · D'AngeloA97 92 82▲▲+13@trip 815-1Fair 8-111%
▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best97 92 82@trip 81A▲ Last fig 97 at/above par 86Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 81 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 97 92 82
▲ Last fig 97 at/above par 863 WORKS IN 30 DAYSHas moved up each time out, 82 to 92 to 97. Tops the field on speed figures, a 97 against 96 for the next best.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (3 works in 30d, last 7d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/7 DMR 1⅛m T JCMabee G2 3rd/10 -2½L 97 24-1 b Stalk ins-2wd;held 3rd 7/23 DMR 1 1/16 T OC 100k b Won/9 by 2 92 10-1 b L Lost path st; ins-2wd 6/19 GP 1 1/16 D OC 25k n1x Won/6 82 0.9-1 b L Chase;2p;kick clear 6Raw Ability▲A. Lezcano · J. SadlerLezcano · SadlerC87 86 89►≡@trip 9012-1Fair 12-18%
► Steady87 86 89 ≡@trip 90C▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 86Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 82–89 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 86 89
▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 86WON LASTHas won 4 of 9 going today's distance. Winner of a 6-horse optional claiming race at SA last time.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 6d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 SA 1m T OC 80k n2x Won/6 by 1½ 87 4.2-1 L Rail rally; led; held 8/21 DMR 1m T OC 100k b 3rd/4 -2L 86 0.6-1 L Ins;ins-2w;evenly late 7/25 DMR 1m T frOsunitas Stk 4th/7 -2½L 89 7.3-1 Ins-2w;angled;miss3rd 7Ambaya▲E. Esquivel · J. ThomasEsquivel · ThomasA89 81 88▲+7@trip 884-1Fair 5-116%
▲ Up +7 · career best89 81 88@trip 88A▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 861Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 88 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 89 81 88
▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 86Also today · Jockey R1: Shapoval 8-1 · Trainer this race: Miss Nightfall 3-1, this race: As Catch Can 20-1180D+ LAYOFF4 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST307 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Cuts back from 1 1/4 miles to a mile.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:00.40 on Oct 16 was the best time at that distance that morning; 4 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 12/28 SA 1¼m T AmrcnOks G1 Won/11 by ¾ 89 13-1 Ins;bid btwn1/8;dug in 11/24 DMR 1m T OC 50k n1x 4th/11 -6½L 81 0.7-1 L Bpd/took up st;pulled 10/30 DMR 1m T OC 80k n1x 2nd/10 -1L 88 5.0-1 L Hop;ins;bid btw;denied 8Princesa MocheA. Ayuso · D. O'NeillAyuso · O'NeillC80 88 85▼-6≡@trip 8820-1Fair 20-14%
▼ Down -680 88 85 ≡@trip 88CCard model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #11 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -6 · ≡ Steady figures 80–88 · Best fig at today's trip 88 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 80 88 85
3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSRuns for $100,000 today after a $1,500,000 race last time. 4 wins from 10 starts at this distance.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 3 works in 30d, last 6d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/5 KD 1m T LadiesTf G2 7th/7 -7L 80 24-1 5-3w;drft out;no rally 8/8 DMR 1 1/16 T YlwRbbn G2 2nd/7 88 15-1 Met bid;clear;caught 7/25 DMR 5f T DasycutrH Stk 4th/8 -4¼L 85 19-1 Inside; mild rally 9Mo' Em Down▲A. Aguilar · P. MillerAguilar · MillerC85 84 81►≡15-1Fair 20-14%
► Steady85 84 81 ≡C▲ Lone speed on early paceCard model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 81–86 · Last 3 figs 85 84 81
▲ Lone speed on early pace3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSGoes a mile after running -6½ furlongs last time. Last out was 3rd, 2 lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse race at SA.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (3 works in 30d, last 7d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/26 SA -6½f T JCHarris G3 3rd/9 -2L 85 10-1 b Inside bid;outkicked 9/4 DMR 5f T Alw nc Won/5 by 1½ 84 0.8-1 b L 2wide; wore down rival 5/9 SA -6½f T Senorita G3 9th/10 -2¼L 81 3.7-1 Ins-2w;blocked past1/8 10Baltic Fire▲LSK. Frey · J. MullinsFrey · MullinsA96 90 90▲+6≡@trip 908-1Fair 8-111%
▲ Up +6 · career best96 90 90 ≡@trip 90A▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 86LSCard model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · career best · ≡ Steady figures 89–96 · Best fig at today's trip 90 (7 tries) · Last 3 figs 96 90 90
▲ Last fig 96 at/above par 86LSLongshot read: 8-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 11% against a line of 9%. A read, not a bet.
4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSCarries 124 pounds, 4 more than last time. A 96 in its last five clears the 86 par for this level.
EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 7d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/7 DMR 1⅛m T JCMabee G2 4th/10 -3½L 96 18-1 b Ins;2-3wd;denied 3rd 7/25 DMR 1m T frOsunitas Stk Won/7 90 7.1-1 b 2w;bid3w;clear;lasted 6/5 SA 1m T OC 80k b Won/10 by ½ 90 4.8-1 b L 2w;aim3wd;best late 11Lady in ParisV. Espinoza · P. DamatoEspinoza · DamatoC79 83 84▼-415-1Fair 20-15%
▼ Down -479 83 84CCard model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Form ▼ Down -4 · Last 3 figs 79 83 84
4 WORKS IN 30 DAYSWON LASTWorked 5F in :59.20 on Oct 17, 3rd of 15 at the distance. Last start was a win, in a 9-horse optional claiming race at DMR at 1.6-1.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 4 works in 30d and the last 7d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/6 DMR 1 1/16 T OC 50k n1x Won/9 by hd 79 1.6-1 L 2w;tip 3wd;hand urging 7/25 DMR 1 1/16 T OC 50k n1x Won/10 by 1 83 2.0-1 L Ins;bid btw;drftd late 5/25 SA 1⅛m T OC 50k n1x 2nd/6 -¾L 84 3.1-1 L 2wd;bid btwn;edged
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
EQZ · RACE 2
UPCOMINGGldikova Stakes (G3)
Stakes, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.
Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #7 Ambaya (a presser/stalker, M/L 4-1). Recent figures: 89 · 81 · 88. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #1 Miss Nightfall at 3-1. Use #3 May Day Ready in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #1 MISS NIGHTFALL (3-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
- #1 MISS NIGHTFALL — our #2 number, about right at the windows (18.9% to their 19.5%).
- #7 AMBAYA — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (16.5% to their 15.6%).
- #3 MAY DAY READY — our #3 number, about right at the windows (12.6% to their 13.0%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.
Likely leader: #9 Mo' Em Down; pressure from #5 Bojaca Blessing, #8 Princesa Moche.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
LEG 2 OF THE SANTA ANITA ALL TURF PICK 3
BET OPTIONS
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