FL · RACE 8
UPCOMINGClaiming $5,000
Claiming $5,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 62.8
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #6 Cinnamon Sugar (a presser/stalker, M/L 2-1). Recent figures: 74 · 72 · 77. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #3 Blue Eyed Scout at 5-2. Use #1 Grand Lady Indy in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Winner of an 8-horse $5,000 claiming race at FL last time. Owns the highest recent figure here at 77.
Tops the field on speed figures, a 77 against 74 for the next best. 2nd last time, a head back, in a field of 7.
Ranks first in the field on Brisnet Prime Power. Last out was 5th, 1 length behind the winner, in a 7-horse $5,000 claiming race at FL.
Has won 8 of 23 going today's distance. Worked 4F in :48.40 on Jul 25, 3rd of 24 at the distance.
Wladimir Rengifo takes over from Ben S Joseph in the saddle. 3rd of 31 at 3F on May 9, in :36.20.
Best recent figure is 63, well under the 75 par for this level. Winless in 13 starts at this distance.
Finished 3rd in a 7-horse $5,000 claiming race at FL, beaten a head. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 88).
At a glance
- Market favourite #6 CINNAMON SUGAR (2-1) — our number agrees.
- #6 CINNAMON SUGAR — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (26.4% to their 27.1%).
- #3 BLUE EYED SCOUT — our #2 number, about right at the windows (22.7% to their 23.2%).
- #4 THIN LEGS — our #4 number, about right at the windows (18.6% to their 18.1%).
Value read
- No price-band edge — the market looks efficient here.
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #4 Thin Legs; pressure from #1 Grand Lady Indy, #5 Kaymus; the shape helps #2 Numeric, #3 Blue Eyed Scout, #5 Kaymus; and works against #1 Grand Lady Indy, #4 Thin Legs.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — an honest, pressed pace rewards the best horse — key tickets fit. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Win
#6 Cinnamon Sugar
Top of the field by a clear 8-pt IQ margin — the play stands alone to win.
Exacta — KEY
#6 Cinnamon Sugar OVER #3 Blue Eyed Scout · #1 Grand Lady Indy · #4 Thin Legs
Key #6 Cinnamon Sugar on top over your contenders for the 2nd slot.
Trifecta — KEY/WHEEL
#6 Cinnamon Sugar / #3 Blue Eyed Scout · #1 Grand Lady Indy · #4 Thin Legs / #3 Blue Eyed Scout · #1 Grand Lady Indy · #4 Thin Legs · #7 Tumbles
#6 Cinnamon Sugar keyed 1st, your contenders filling 2nd–3rd.
Bet types offered at this track →
EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 CENT MINIMUM)