FL · RACE 5
UPCOMINGClaiming $5,000
Claiming $5,000, for 3-year-olds and up.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 68.2
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #7 Mister J T (a closer, M/L 12-1). Recent figures: 67 · 60 · 75. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #3 Breaking Stones at 3-1. Use #8 Profitability in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Moves up from $4,000 claiming to $5,000 claiming. Turns back in 8 days.
Trending the wrong way on speed, 79 to 77 to 73. Owns the highest recent figure here at 79.
Winless in 17 starts at this distance. Jockey switch: L E Perez last out, Joel Cruz today.
Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Apr 17, in :49.20. 3rd of 14 at 5F on Jul 16, in 1:00.80.
Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 79, with 78 next best. Last start was a win, in a 9-horse $4,000 claiming race at FL at 7.8-1.
Comes in off a victory in a 9-horse $5,000 claiming race at FL. Was 8th of 9 at the first call last time.
Won last out in an 8-horse $4,000 claiming race at FL. A step up in company: $4,000 claiming before, $5,000 claiming today.
O Gomez takes over from L E Perez in the saddle. Winner of a 7-horse $5,000 claiming race at FL last time.
Shortens up to 6 furlongs after going 1 1/16 miles. Figures have slipped: 75, 59, 55 over its last three.
At a glance
- Market favourite #3 BREAKING STONES (3-1) — our number has it ranked #2.
- #3 BREAKING STONES — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.2% to their 19.4%).
- #9 THREE LITTLE BIRDS — our #6 number, about right at the windows (16.7% to their 17.3%).
- #2 DOUBLE SHOT — our #5 number, about right at the windows (14.8% to their 15.6%).
Value read
- Longshot value: #7 MISTER J T (12-1) — our fair 7.3% is above the morning line's 6.0%; supported by: 3-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer
Pace
Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.
Likely leader: #3 Breaking Stones; pressure from #5 Allure Of Money, #1 Heads Or Tails.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — a balanced pace makes it a trip race — moderate spreads. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Win / Place
#7 Mister J T (place saver: #3 Breaking Stones)
#7 Mister J T rates the best; #3 Breaking Stones the logical insurance if you want to be covered.
Exacta — BOX
#7 Mister J T · #3 Breaking Stones
Two standouts with little between them — box #7 Mister J T and #3 Breaking Stones both ways.
Trifecta — BOX
#7 Mister J T · #3 Breaking Stones · #8 Profitability
Box the top three for any 1-2-3 order; add a 4th only if the field is wide open.
Superfecta — KEY
#7 Mister J T / #3 Breaking Stones · #8 Profitability · #5 Allure Of Money · #2 Double Shot / #3 Breaking Stones · #8 Profitability · #5 Allure Of Money · #2 Double Shot / ALL or #3 Breaking Stones · #8 Profitability · #5 Allure Of Money · #2 Double Shot
Deep enough field to spread a super — key the top, spread the next few, fill 4th wide.
Bet types offered at this track →
EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 CENT MINIMUM) * DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 5-6) *
LATE PICK 4 (50 CENT MINIMUM: RACES 5-6-7-8)