FL · RACE 4
UPCOMINGClaiming $5,000
Claiming $5,000, for 3-year-olds and up, that have not won three races lifetime.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 1 Mile 70 Yards: 98.99
The shape is the story here: 4 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #5 Grand Warrior (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-1). Recent figures: 36 · 71 · 73. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #6 Notfanutin at 7-2. Use #7 The Brown Egg in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
M Anthony Ferraro takes over the training from Anthony Adamo. Trending the wrong way on speed, 73 to 71 to 36.
Winless in 8 starts at this distance. Was running in $11,000 claiming; today's $5,000 claiming is an easier level on paper.
Comes in off a victory in a 9-horse $5,000 claiming race at FL. Changes barns, from Lisa A Reed to Charlton Baker.
Drops from $11,000 claiming to $5,000 claiming. Figures have slipped: 76, 70, 62 over its last three.
Best recent figure of 75 sits right around the 77 par. Led at the first call last time.
Class relief: optional claiming last time, $5,000 claiming today. Tops the field on speed figures, a 91 against 78 for the next best.
Last out was 5th, 5½ lengths behind the winner, in a 9-horse $5,000 claiming race at FL. 0 for 5 at today's distance.
At a glance
- Market favourite #4 CELTIC PRINCE (5-2) — our number has it ranked #6.
- #4 CELTIC PRINCE — our #6 number, about right at the windows (22.6% to their 23.4%).
- #6 NOTFANUTIN — our #2 number, about right at the windows (19.2% to their 18.2%).
- #5 GRAND WARRIOR — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 16.1%, they've got 13.7%.
Value read
- #5 GRAND WARRIOR — we make it 16.1%, the morning line implies 13.7%. We're 17.2 points higher than the line — our opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds.
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #3 Percy; pressure from #7 The Brown Egg, #4 Celtic Prince; and works against #1 Bolt To Run, #3 Percy, #4 Celtic Prince.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — the projected speed duel sets up closers underneath — spread the exotics deeper. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Win
#5 Grand Warrior
Top of the field by a clear 23-pt IQ margin — the play stands alone to win.
Exacta — KEY
#5 Grand Warrior OVER #6 Notfanutin · #7 The Brown Egg · #1 Bolt To Run
Key #5 Grand Warrior on top over your contenders for the 2nd slot.
Trifecta — KEY/WHEEL
#5 Grand Warrior / #6 Notfanutin · #7 The Brown Egg · #1 Bolt To Run / #6 Notfanutin · #7 The Brown Egg · #1 Bolt To Run · #3 Percy
#5 Grand Warrior keyed 1st, your contenders filling 2nd–3rd.
Bet types offered at this track →
EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 CENT MINIMUM) * DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 4-5) *
LATE PICK 5 WITH CARRYOVER (50 CENT MINIMUM: RACES 4-5-6-7-8)