FL · RACE 6
UPCOMINGClaiming $11,000
Claiming $11,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won three races lifetime.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 5 1/2 Furlongs: 62.8
The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #3 Red Burgundy (early speed, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 75 · 37 · 75. It needs to turn the form around after a flat last start. Backup is #5 Diptique at 12-1. Use #7 Cararra in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
New trainer: Paz Horacio De had it last time, Michael Ferraro now. Last race was on the turf; today it runs on the dirt.
Gets a new rider, Steven Fret replacing Hector Rafael Jr Diaz. Was 7th of 7 at the first call last time.
Class relief: $20,000 claiming last time, $11,000 claiming today. Tops the field on speed figures, an 84 against 79 for the next best.
Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field. Finished 2nd last time in a 6-horse $11,000 claiming race at FL.
Figures have slipped: 74, 64, 57 over its last three. Posted the fastest 4F work of the morning on Aug 31, in :49.20.
Has won 2 of 3 going today's distance. Comes in off a victory in a 5-horse $11,000 claiming race at FL.
Winner of a 6-horse $11,000 claiming race at FL last time. Best recent figure of 77 sits right around the 77 par.
Moves up from $5,000 claiming to $11,000 claiming. A 58 is the high figure lately, short of the 77 par.
At a glance
- Market favourite #3 RED BURGUNDY (3-1) — our number agrees.
- #3 RED BURGUNDY — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (21.2% to their 20.5%).
- #1 HIDDEN VASE — our #4 number, about right at the windows (17.0% to their 16.4%).
- #4 LOVELY PASHYN — our #6 number, about right at the windows (16.9% to their 18.3%).
Value read
- Longshot value: #5 DIPTIQUE (12-1) — our fair 7.9% is above the morning line's 6.3%; supported by: 4-way speed duel up front — meltdown sets up the closer
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #4 Lovely Pashyn; pressure from #1 Hidden Vase, #3 Red Burgundy; the shape helps #5 Diptique; and works against #1 Hidden Vase, #3 Red Burgundy, #4 Lovely Pashyn.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — the projected speed duel sets up closers underneath — spread the exotics deeper. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Win / Place
#3 Red Burgundy (place saver: #5 Diptique)
#3 Red Burgundy rates the best; #5 Diptique the logical insurance if you want to be covered.
Exacta — BOX
#3 Red Burgundy · #5 Diptique
Two standouts with little between them — box #3 Red Burgundy and #5 Diptique both ways.
Trifecta — BOX
#3 Red Burgundy · #5 Diptique · #7 Cararra
Box the top three for any 1-2-3 order; add a 4th only if the field is wide open.
Superfecta — KEY
#3 Red Burgundy / #5 Diptique · #7 Cararra · #1 Hidden Vase · #8 World Bank / #5 Diptique · #7 Cararra · #1 Hidden Vase · #8 World Bank / ALL or #5 Diptique · #7 Cararra · #1 Hidden Vase · #8 World Bank
Deep enough field to spread a super — key the top, spread the next few, fill 4th wide.
Bet types offered at this track →
EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 CENT MINIMUM) * DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 6-7) *
PICK 3 (50 CENT MINIMUM: RACES 6-7-8)