Pick sheet

Race 611:19 PM Md Sp Wt

1.6F · Dirt · 6 entered. Our model's top pick, Aj Wise Lady, is 37% to win (morning line implies 30%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #4 Aj Wise Lady ML 8-5 Fair 9-5 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +8

Jockey J. Ayala · Trainer C. O'Dell · KEE 1: 0-0-1 · Dist 4: 0-0-1 · best fig at 1.59091f dirt 68 · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	LA	1.81818f D	FutTrl6000	3rd/7 -½L	81	21-1	b	Gave way late;good try
8/7	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	4th/9 -1L	82	43-1	b L	Improved position;
6/26	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	5th/8 -2L	70	36-1	b L	No threat

Case: Last out 3rd in the FutTrl6000 at LA. Last Brisnet figures 81-82-70. Best at today's distance 68. 0-for-4 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Los Alamitos. C. O'Dell / J. Ayala.

Knock: 0-for-4 at the distance.

Contender #3 Venture ML 2-1 Fair 5-2 Model #2 Top last-race fig ► Steady ≡ Steady 80–83

Jockey G. Lara · Trainer S. Willoughby · KEE 4: 0-2-2 · Dist 4: 0-2-2 · best fig at 1.59091f dirt 81 · 42 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	LA	1.59091f D	MSW	2nd/6 -1½L	81	0.4-1	b	Hit gate st;willing 2d
8/29	LA	1.36364f D	MSW	2nd/6 -½L	83	1.3-1	b	Awkward st;willing 2nd
4/19	LA	1.36364f D	FutTrl6000	3rd/6 by ns	81	2.3-1	b	Wide path;drftd late

Case: Last out 2nd in the fMdSpWt at LA. Last Brisnet figures 81-83-81. Best at today's distance 81. 0-for-4 at the distance. 0-for-4 at Los Alamitos. S. Willoughby / G. Lara.

Knock: 0-for-4 at the distance.

Use #5 Twin Falls ML 5-1 Fair 7-1 Model #3 ► Steady Last out 3rd in the fMdSpWt at LA. Last Brisnet figures 79-77-69. Best at today's distance 79. 0-for-4 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Los Alamitos. J. Gonzales / A. Viramontes. Knock: 0-for-4 at the distance. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey A. Viramontes · Trainer J. Gonzales · KEE 1: 0-0-1 · Dist 4: 0-0-2 · best fig at 1.59091f dirt 79 · 35 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	LA	1.59091f D	MSW	3rd/6 -1L	79	5.2-1	b	Steady effort
8/28	ALB	1.81818f D	MSW	3rd/9 -1¼L	77	5.1-1	b L	Duel;gave way
4/24	SRP	1.59091f D	FutTrl6000	7th/9 -3½L	69	4.1-1	b L	Stmbld;bmpd;nofnlkck

Narrowing the field: A #2, #3, #4 · B #1, #5, #6

R6 Los Alamitos · Maiden Special Weight

11:19 PM ET · 350 Yards Dirt · $10,000 · 6 runners11:19 PM · 1.6f Dirt · 6 runners

Upcoming $10K · Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Relentless DelightG. Vera · M. RodriguezVera · RodriguezB66 81 65▼▼-12↕12-1Fair 30-14%▼▼ Big drop -1266 81 65 ↕B

Card model 4% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -12 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 65–88 · Last 3 figs 66 81 65

Jockey Gerardo Vera 26% career 4-for-14 on dirt this meet (29%) · Trainer Manuel Rodolfo Rodriguez 33% career 4-for-29 on dirt this meet (14%)

Also today · Jockey R7: Runner On The Rise 5-2 · Trainer R7: Runner On The Rise 5-2

Raises its level, stakes last time and maiden special weight now. Tops the field on speed figures, an 88 against 84 for the next best.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

TROUBLED TRIP In range; took up late last out; the speed figure already reflects it.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 45d back

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	LA	1.81818f D	FutTrl6000	5th/6 -1L	66	21-1	b	In range; took up late
8/7	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	6th/10 -2¼L	81	11-1	b L	Gave way;
6/27	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	6th/10 -4½L	65	7.3-1	b L	Broke in; bumped

2Quien Sabe HottieI. Lara · M. JungersLara · JungersA77 79 80▲+7↕@trip 804-1Fair 8-111%▲ Up +777 79 80 ↕@trip 80A
Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +7 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 50–80 · Best fig at today's trip 80 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 79 80
Jockey Irving Lara 26% career 2-for-24 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Marc E Jungers 32% career 0-for-9 on dirt this meet (0%)
Also today · Jockey R7: Verssace 9-5, R8: Jaque 6-1
Moves up from stakes to maiden special weight. Last out was 5th, 2¼ lengths behind the winner, in an 8-horse stakes race at LA.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 106d back
RECORD Irving Lara from post 2 here: 6 wins, 22 top-3 in 80 rides · 12% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/3 LA 1.81818f D FutTrl6000 5th/8 -2¼L 77 42-1 b Even effort
9/12 LA 1.59091f D MSW 3rd/6 -1½L 79 10-1 b Bit slow;finished well
8/7 ALB 2f D FutTrl10000 8th/10 -3¼L 80 46-1 b L Gave way;

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	LA	1.81818f D	FutTrl6000	5th/8 -2¼L	77	42-1	b	Even effort
9/12	LA	1.59091f D	MSW	3rd/6 -1½L	79	10-1	b	Bit slow;finished well
8/7	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	8th/10 -3¼L	80	46-1	b L	Gave way;

3VentureG. Lara · S. WilloughbyLara · WilloughbyA81 83 81►≡@trip 812-1Fair 5-230%► Steady81 83 81 ≡@trip 81A2

Card model 30% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 80–83 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 83 81

Jockey Gabriel Angel Gomez Lara 26% career ★ 6-for-29 on dirt this meet (21%) · Trainer Scott L Willoughby 28% career 3-for-22 on dirt this meet (14%)

Also today · Jockey R7: Aj Fast Prize 10-1, R8: Dice Game 9-2 · Trainer R8: Dice Game 9-2

★ FASTEST WORK4/4 board here

Beaten 1½ lengths for 2nd in a 6-horse maiden special weight race at LA. 0 for 4 at today's distance.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Jun 19; 0 works in 30d

RECORD On the board in all 4 starts here (0 wins)

RECORD Gabriel Angel Gomez Lara from post 3 here: 10 wins, 41 top-3 in 90 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	LA	1.59091f D	MSW	2nd/6 -1½L	81	0.4-1	b	Hit gate st;willing 2d
8/29	LA	1.36364f D	MSW	2nd/6 -½L	83	1.3-1	b	Awkward st;willing 2nd
4/19	LA	1.36364f D	FutTrl6000	3rd/6 by ns	81	2.3-1	b	Wide path;drftd late

4Aj Wise LadyJ. Ayala · C. O'DellAyala · O'DellA81 82 70▲▲+8@trip 688-5Fair 9-537%▲▲ Big jump +881 82 70@trip 68A1

Card model 37% · Fair odds 9-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · Best fig at today's trip 68 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 81 82 70

Jockey Jesus Rios Ayala 29% career ★ 6-for-25 on dirt this meet (24%) · Trainer Christopher G O'Dell 28% career 4-for-12 on dirt this meet (33%), #1 of 29

Also today · Trainer this race: Shez Tres Seis 8-1

Winless in 4 starts at this distance. A step up in company: stakes before, maiden special weight today.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 142d ago

RECORD Jesus Rios Ayala from post 4 here: 8 wins, 24 top-3 in 53 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	LA	1.81818f D	FutTrl6000	3rd/7 -½L	81	21-1	b	Gave way late;good try
8/7	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	4th/9 -1L	82	43-1	b L	Improved position;
6/26	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	5th/8 -2L	70	36-1	b L	No threat

5Twin FallsA. Viramontes · J. GonzalesViramontes · GonzalesB79 77 69►@trip 795-1Fair 7-113%► Steady79 77 69@trip 79B3

Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 79 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 77 69

Jockey Armando Viramontes 25% career 5-for-34 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer James Julian Ii Gonzales 27% career 2-for-11 on dirt this meet (18%)

Figures are climbing: 69, 77, 79 over its last three. Worked 1F in :12.00 on Mar 30, 3rd of 12 at the distance.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 74d ago)

RECORD Armando Viramontes from post 5 here: 8 wins, 31 top-3 in 77 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	LA	1.59091f D	MSW	3rd/6 -1L	79	5.2-1	b	Steady effort
8/28	ALB	1.81818f D	MSW	3rd/9 -1¼L	77	5.1-1	b L	Duel;gave way
4/24	SRP	1.59091f D	FutTrl6000	7th/9 -3½L	69	4.1-1	b L	Stmbld;bmpd;nofnlkck

6Shez Tres SeisA. Cervantes · C. O'DellCervantes · O'DellB55 69 68▼▼-14@trip 688-1Fair 15-16%▼▼ Big drop -1455 69 68@trip 68B

Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -14 · Best fig at today's trip 68 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 55 69 68

Jockey Armando R Cervantes 31% career 1-for-25 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Christopher G O'Dell 28% career 4-for-12 on dirt this meet (33%), #1 of 29

Also today · Jockey R7: Ss Drag Along 5-1, R8: L A Ravin 2-1 · Trainer this race: Aj Wise Lady 8-5

Gets a new rider, Armando R Cervantes replacing Jesus Rios Ayala. 3rd of 12 at 1F on Jun 27, in :12.00.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 92d ago

RECORD Armando R Cervantes from post 6 here: 11 wins, 37 top-3 in 72 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	LA	1.59091f D	MSW	5th/5 -4½L	55	3.5-1	b	Moving head/off slow
9/19	LA	1f D	MSW	5th/6 -2½L	69	8.4-1	b	Off slow/bumped start
8/13	ALB	1.59091f D	MSW	7th/9 -3L	68	20-1	b L	Off slow;lacked finish

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

LOS ALAMITOS · RACE 6

UPCOMING

Maiden Special Weight

Field

6 runners

Purse

$10,000

Post

11:19 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#4 · 37%

Maiden Special Weight, for fillies, 2-year-olds.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 350 Yards: 17.41

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #4 Aj Wise Lady (a tactical type, M/L 8-5). Recent figures: 81 · 82 · 70. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #3 Venture at 2-1. Use #5 Twin Falls in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #4 AJ WISE LADY (8-5) — our number agrees.
#4 AJ WISE LADY — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (30.9% to their 30.2%).
#3 VENTURE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (28.1% to their 26.2%).
#2 QUIEN SABE HOTTIE — our #4 number, about right at the windows (14.2% to their 15.7%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Relentless Delight, #2 Quien Sabe Hottie, #3 Venture.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Relentless Delight2Quien Sabe Hottie3Venture4Aj Wise Lady5Twin Falls6Shez Tres Seis

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Shez Tres Seis

Twin Falls

Venture

Relentless Delight

Quien Sabe Hottie

Aj Wise Lady

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