Pick sheet

Race 812:11 AM Alw 13600n3l

1.6F · Dirt · 7 entered. Our model's top pick, Demarus, is 43% to win (morning line implies 28%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #1 Demarus ML 9-5 Fair 7-5 Model #1 ► Steady ★ Best at 1.59091f dirt: 90 Lasix off

Jockey J. Klaiber · Trainer E. Willis · Dist 3: 2-0-0 · best fig at 1.59091f dirt 90 · 154 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
5/30	RP	1.59091f D	HrtgPlFuG1 G1	4th/9 by nk	84	5.4-1	b L	In mix; photoed out
5/8	RP	1.59091f D	FutTrl15000	Won/8	90	0.2-1	b L	In tandem; strong kick
4/11	RP	1½f D	MSW	Won/8	80	6.2-1	b L	Met challenge;surged

Case: Last out 4th/9 by nk in the HrtgPlFuG1-G1 at RP. Last Brisnet figures 84-90-80. Best at today's distance 90. 2-for-3 at the distance. E. Willis / J. Klaiber.

Knock: Off 154 days. Never raced at Los Alamitos.

Contender #5 L a Ravin ML 2-1 Fair 7-2 Model #2 ▼ Down -5

Jockey A. Cervantes · Trainer F. Rodriguez · KEE 6: 2-1-1 · Dist 6: 2-1-1 · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	LA	1.81818f D	FutTrl6000	2nd/8	80	3.6-1	b	Led late; nailed
9/5	LA	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	Won/8	93	6.8-1	b	Broke in; going away
8/1	LA	1.36364f D	MSW	Won/8 by hd	83	1.2-1	b	Came in/bpd; best late

Case: Last out 2nd in the FutTrl6000 at LA. Last Brisnet figures 80-93-83. 2-for-6 at the distance. 2-for-6 at Los Alamitos. F. Rodriguez / A. Cervantes.

Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Use #4 Dice Game ML 9-2 Fair 7-1 Model #3 ► Steady ≡ Steady 81–85 Last out won in the fAlw13600n2l at LA. Last Brisnet figures 85-84-85. Best at today's distance 85. 2-for-5 at the distance. 2-for-5 at Los Alamitos. S. Willoughby / G. Lara. Knock: Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey G. Lara · Trainer S. Willoughby · KEE 5: 2-1-1 · Dist 5: 2-1-1 · best fig at 1.59091f dirt 85 · 35 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	LA	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	Won/6	85	2.3-1	b	Alertly;lug out;held
8/23	LA	1.59091f D	FutTrl6000	4th/7 -1¼L	84	2.4-1	b	Lug out;bumped late
7/5	LA	1.59091f D	sFutTrl6000	Won/8	85	11-1	b	Bk in/bp;drftd/bpd1/8

Narrowing the field: A #1, #3, #5 · B #4, #6, #7 · C #2

R8 Los Alamitos · Allowance · $13,600 purse

12:11 AM ET · 350 Yards Dirt · $13,600 · 7 runners12:11 AM · 1.6f Dirt · 7 runners

Upcoming $14K · Allowance · $13,600 purse

Card modelCard model StrongFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Demarus★J. Klaiber · E. WillisKlaiber · WillisA84 90 80►@trip 909-5Fair 7-543%► Steady84 90 80@trip 90A★ Best at the trip 901

Card model 43% · Fair odds 7-5 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 90 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 84 90 80

★ Best at the trip 90

Jockey Justine Klaiber 37% career 7-for-44 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Eddie D Willis 35% career 2-for-21 on dirt this meet (10%) ★ hot

Also today · Jockey R4: Karma's Revenge 9-2, R5: Twisted Humor 7-2, R7: Cowboy Legacy 123 3-1

60D LAYOFF

154 days since the last start, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Runs for $13,600 today after a $1,158,940 race last time.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 1 work in 30d, last 29d back

RECORD Justine Klaiber from post 1 here: 10 wins, 31 top-3 in 60 rides · 24% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
5/30	RP	1.59091f D	HrtgPlFuG1 G1	4th/9 by nk	84	5.4-1	b L	In mix; photoed out
5/8	RP	1.59091f D	FutTrl15000	Won/8	90	0.2-1	b L	In tandem; strong kick
4/11	RP	1½f D	MSW	Won/8	80	6.2-1	b L	Met challenge;surged

2Emperador DJ. Rodriguez · A. AquinoRodriguez · AquinoC77 78 73▲▲+10↕@trip 7815-1Fair 20-14%▲▲ Big jump +1077 78 73 ↕@trip 78C
Card model 4% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #6 · Tier C · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 51–78 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 78 73
Jockey Jose Elias Rodriguez 34% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet · Trainer Angela M Aquino 33% career ★ 8-for-28 on dirt this meet (29%) ★ hot
Also today · Trainer R3: Voucher 6-1, R4: The Dude Abides 30-1
60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK
New trainer: Jaime H Gomez had it last time, Angela M Aquino now. Purse drops from $54,000 to $13,600 against its last start.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 1F on Jul 4; 1 work in 30d
RECORD 2 wins, 2 on the board from 5 starts here
RECORD Jose Elias Rodriguez from post 2 here: 1 win, 9 top-3 in 21 rides · 9% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
8/16 LA 1.59091f D CLSc 5th/7 -1½L 77 2.2-1 b Lacked response
7/25 LA 1.59091f D CLT Won/7 78 8.9-1 b Brk in;dueled;best
6/13 LA 1.36364f D Alw n2l 4th/5 -1L 73 18-1 b Lost path midwy;kept

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/16	LA	1.59091f D	CLSc	5th/7 -1½L	77	2.2-1	b	Lacked response
7/25	LA	1.59091f D	CLT	Won/7	78	8.9-1	b	Brk in;dueled;best
6/13	LA	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	4th/5 -1L	73	18-1	b	Lost path midwy;kept

3Gunz An RosesM. Arriaga · M. FalesArriaga · FalesA91 81 78▲▲+125-1Fair 12-18%▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best91 81 78A

Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +12 · career best · Last 3 figs 91 81 78

Jockey Martin Arriaga 24% career ★ 5-for-23 on dirt this meet (22%) · Trainer Matt Fales 29% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet

◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE180D+ LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

Last start was a win, in a 10-horse race at TUP at 2.2-1. Freshened 182 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look.

PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP 1f in :11.40 on Mar 1 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30d

RECORD Martin Arriaga from post 3 here: 7 wins, 34 top-3 in 77 rides · 17% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
5/2	TUP	1.36364f D	AQRASprgJv18k	Won/10	91	2.2-1	b L	Came in; drifted; held
4/8	TUP	1.36364f D	FutTrl8800	5th/10 by hd	81	1.2-1	b L	Bumped; bore in late
3/12	TUP	1.13636f D	sMdSpWt	2nd/6 by hd	78	0.8-1	b L	Dug in; game finish

4Dice GameG. Lara · S. WilloughbyLara · WilloughbyB85 84 85►≡@trip 859-2Fair 6-113%► Steady85 84 85 ≡@trip 85B3

Card model 13% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 81–85 · Best fig at today's trip 85 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 85 84 85

Jockey Gabriel Angel Gomez Lara 26% career ★ 6-for-29 on dirt this meet (21%) · Trainer Scott L Willoughby 28% career 3-for-22 on dirt this meet (14%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Venture 2-1, R7: Aj Fast Prize 10-1 · Trainer R6: Venture 2-1

WON LAST4/5 board here

2 wins from 5 starts at this distance. Won last out in a 6-horse allowance race at LA.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 231d back)

RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Gabriel Angel Gomez Lara from post 4 here: 20 wins, 56 top-3 in 119 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/26	LA	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	Won/6	85	2.3-1	b	Alertly;lug out;held
8/23	LA	1.59091f D	FutTrl6000	4th/7 -1¼L	84	2.4-1	b	Lug out;bumped late
7/5	LA	1.59091f D	sFutTrl6000	Won/8	85	11-1	b	Bk in/bp;drftd/bpd1/8

5L a RavinA. Cervantes · F. RodriguezCervantes · RodriguezA80 93 83▼-52-1Fair 7-222%▼ Down -580 93 83A2

Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼ Down -5 · Last 3 figs 80 93 83

Jockey Armando R Cervantes 31% career 1-for-25 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Francisco Rodriguez 33% career 0-for-13 on dirt this meet (0%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Shez Tres Seis 8-1, R7: Ss Drag Along 5-1 · Trainer R5: Stardialed 6-1, R7: Ss Drag Along 5-1

4/6 board here

Owns the highest recent figure here at 93. A step up in company: stakes before, allowance today.

PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 154d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD Armando R Cervantes from post 5 here: 16 wins, 40 top-3 in 77 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	LA	1.81818f D	FutTrl6000	2nd/8	80	3.6-1	b	Led late; nailed
9/5	LA	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	Won/8	93	6.8-1	b	Broke in; going away
8/1	LA	1.36364f D	MSW	Won/8 by hd	83	1.2-1	b	Came in/bpd; best late

6JaqueI. Lara · J. FloresLara · FloresB79 76 74►@trip 796-1Fair 15-17%► Steady79 76 74@trip 79B

Card model 7% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 79 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 79 76 74

Jockey Irving Lara 26% career 2-for-24 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Jose Flores 33% career 2-for-31 on dirt this meet (6%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Quien Sabe Hottie 4-1, R7: Verssace 9-5 · Trainer R7: Aj Fast Prize 10-1

60D LAYOFF4/6 board here

A step up in company: stakes before, allowance today. Beaten 1 length for 6th in an 8-horse stakes race at LA.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 17d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 4 on the board from 6 starts here

RECORD Irving Lara from post 6 here: 14 wins, 50 top-3 in 98 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/23	LA	1.59091f D	FutTrl6000	6th/8 -1L	79	2.8-1	b	Needed more outside
6/21	LA	1.59091f D	EdBurkeJuv25k	6th/7 -1½L	76	3.9-1	b	Brk in/bpd;floated out
5/31	LA	1.59091f D	FutTrl6000	3rd/9 -2L	74	2.0-1	b	Stumbld st;lug;game

7Go Go Ki Ki GoD. Cruz · J. FariasCruz · FariasB88 75 42▲▲+31↕@trip 5420-1Fair 50-12%▲▲ Big jump +31 · career best88 75 42 ↕@trip 54B

Card model 2% · Fair odds 50-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +31 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 42–88 · Best fig at today's trip 54 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 88 75 42

Jockey Damian Diaz Cruz 33% career 3-for-30 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Jorge Farias 30% career 1-for-13 on dirt this meet (8%)

Also today · Jockey R1: Warmhearted 10-1, R2: Fairlawns Way 7-2, R4: The Dude Abides 30-1, R7: Smashin Diamonds 15-1 · Trainer R3: Drop The Bit 4-1, R5: Toulouse Detrac 12-1, R7: Smashin Diamonds 15-1

WON LAST

Has moved up each time out, 42 to 75 to 88. Changes barns, from Felix L Gonzalez to Jorge Farias.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 147d ago

RECORD 2 wins, 2 on the board from 5 starts here

RECORD Damian Diaz Cruz from post 7 here: 1 win, 7 top-3 in 26 rides · 7% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/20	LA	1.36364f D	Clm 16k n2lc	Won/5	88	4.1-1	b	Away cleanly; driving
9/5	LA	1.36364f D	Alw n2l	5th/8 -2¾L	75	23-1	b	Hit gate/bumped hard
8/16	LA	1f D	Alw n2l	5th/5 -3¼L	42	3.3-1	b	Lost all chance start

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

LOS ALAMITOS · RACE 8

UPCOMING

Allowance · $13,600 purse

Field

7 runners

Purse

$13,600

Post

12:11 AM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#1 · 43%

Allowance, for 2-year-olds, that have not won three races lifetime.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 350 Yards: 17.41

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #1 Demarus (a tactical type, M/L 9-5). Recent figures: 84 · 90 · 80. Backup is #5 L A Ravin at 2-1. Use #4 Dice Game in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #1 DEMARUS (9-5) — our number agrees.
#1 DEMARUS — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (31.3% to their 27.6%).
#5 L A RAVIN — our #2 number, about right at the windows (25.6% to their 25.8%).
#4 DICE GAME — our #3 number, about right at the windows (14.3% to their 14.1%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Demarus, #2 Emperador D, #3 Gunz An Roses.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Demarus2Emperador D3Gunz An Roses4Dice Game5L A Ravin6Jaque7Go Go Ki Ki Go

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Gunz An Roses

Dice Game

Go Go Ki Ki Go

Emperador D

Demarus

L A Ravin

Jaque

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