Pick sheet

Race 711:45 PM Md Sp Wt

1F · Dirt · 7 entered. Our model's top pick, Verssace, is 33% to win (morning line implies 28%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #7 Verssace ML 9-5 Fair 2-1 Model #1 Top last-race fig ▲▲ Big jump +9 ★ Best at 1f dirt: 84

Jockey I. Lara · Trainer J. Nunez · KEE 5: 0-1-1 · Dist 5: 0-1-1 · best fig at 1f dirt 84 · 42 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	LA	1f D	MSW	2nd/6 -¾L	82	5.6-1	b	Brk thru gate;2d best
8/29	LA	1f D	MSW	3rd/7 by nk	84	22-1	b	Brk in;steady effort
7/18	LA	1.59091f D	MSW	5th/6 -2¼L	68	18-1	b	Brk in; weakened late

Case: Last out 2nd in the MdSpWt at LA. Last Brisnet figures 82-84-68. Best at today's distance 84. 0-for-5 at the distance. 0-for-5 at Los Alamitos. J. Nunez / I. Lara.

Knock: 0-for-5 at the distance.

Contender #1 Cowboy Legacy 123 ML 3-1 Fair 7-2 Model #2

Jockey J. Klaiber · Trainer A. Farias · KEE 2: 0-0-2 · Dist 2: 0-0-2 · best fig at 1f dirt 77 · 195 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
4/19	LA	1.36364f D	FutTrl6000	3rd/8 -1½L	78	17-1		Good try outside
3/22	LA	1f D	MSW	3rd/6 -1¾L	77	2.9-1		Brk in/bp;solid try

Case: Last out 3rd in the FutTrl6000 at LA. Last Brisnet figures 78-77. Best at today's distance 77. 0-for-2 at the distance. 0-for-2 at Los Alamitos. A. Farias / J. Klaiber.

Knock: Off 195 days. 0-for-2 at the distance.

Use #4 Runner on the Rise ML 5-2 Fair 9-2 Model #3 ▲▲ Big jump +8 ↕ Up and down 36–87 Last out 6th/8 -1L in the FutTrl6000 at LA. Last Brisnet figures 77-84-36. 0-for-4 at the distance. 0-for-1 at Los Alamitos. M. Rodriguez / G. Vera. Knock: 0-for-4 at the distance. Our model rates this one below its morning line.

Jockey G. Vera · Trainer M. Rodriguez · KEE 1: 0-0-0 · Dist 4: 0-0-1 · 28 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	LA	1.81818f D	FutTrl6000	6th/8 -1L	77	31-1	b	Lacked needed kick
8/8	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	5th/9 -2L	84	64-1	b L	Improved position;
6/27	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	9th/9 -7½L	36	9.3-1	b L	Off slowly; lost path

Longshot #5 Aj Fast Prize ML 10-1 Fair 12-1 Model #5 ▼▼ Big drop -11 Lasix off

Jockey G. Lara · Trainer J. Flores · Dist 4: 0-0-0 · 50 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/11	SWF	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	8th/8 -5½L	68	40-1	b LB	Early trouble;no rally
7/24	WYO	1.59091f D	FutTrl6000	5th/10 -1L	80	14-1	b LB	In contention; hung
7/3	WYO	1.36364f D	MSW	7th/10 -1L	71	3.2-1	b LB	No rally

Case: Last out 8th/8 -5½L in the FutTrl10000 at SWF. Last Brisnet figures 68-80-71. 0-for-4 at the distance. J. Flores / G. Lara.

Knock: Never raced at Los Alamitos. 0-for-4 at the distance.

Narrowing the field: A #1, #4, #7 · B #2, #3, #5 · ? #6 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

R7 Los Alamitos · Maiden Special Weight

11:45 PM ET · 220 Yards Dirt · $10,000 · 7 runners11:45 PM · 1f Dirt · 7 runners

Upcoming $10K · Maiden Special Weight

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1Cowboy Legacy 123J. Klaiber · A. FariasKlaiber · FariasA78 77@trip 773-1Fair 7-222%—78 77@trip 77A2
Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 77 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 78 77
Jockey Justine Klaiber 37% career 7-for-44 on dirt this meet (16%) · Trainer Adan Farias 30% career 3-for-10 on dirt this meet (30%), #3 of 29
Also today · Jockey R4: Karma's Revenge 9-2, R5: Twisted Humor 7-2, R8: Demarus 9-5 · Trainer R3: Lord Dunmore 10-1
180D+ LAYOFF
195 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Moves up from stakes to maiden special weight.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS Average work schedule for this field (1 work in 30d, last 27d ago)
RECORD Justine Klaiber from post 1 here: 10 wins, 31 top-3 in 60 rides · 24% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
4/19 LA 1.36364f D FutTrl6000 3rd/8 -1½L 78 17-1 Good try outside
3/22 LA 1f D MSW 3rd/6 -1¾L 77 2.9-1 Brk in/bp;solid try
2Ss Drag AlongA. Cervantes · F. RodriguezCervantes · RodriguezB68 64@trip 685-1Fair 6-114%—68 64@trip 68B
Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 68 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs 68 64
Jockey Armando R Cervantes 31% career 1-for-25 on dirt this meet (4%) · Trainer Francisco Rodriguez 33% career 0-for-13 on dirt this meet (0%)
Also today · Jockey R6: Shez Tres Seis 8-1, R8: L A Ravin 2-1 · Trainer R5: Stardialed 6-1, R8: L A Ravin 2-1
◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLE
Francisco Rodriguez takes over the training from Jesus Nunez. Beaten 2¼ lengths for 6th in a 6-horse maiden special weight race at LA.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Off slw; steadied early. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 94 days ago
RECORD Armando R Cervantes from post 2 here: 9 wins, 25 top-3 in 72 rides · 19% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/19 LA 1f D MSW 6th/6 -2¼L 68 7.5-1 b Off slw;steadied early
8/16 LA 1f D MSW 4th/5 -2¾L 64 18-1 b Off slow; no threat
3Rosies HopeC. Ochoa · H. RubinOchoa · RubinB62 60@trip 6015-1Fair 30-13%—62 60@trip 60B
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 60 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 62 60
Jockey Cristofer Ochoa 26% career 0-for-9 on dirt this meet (0%) · Trainer Howard I Rubin 22% career 0-for-4 on dirt this meet
Also today · Trainer R3: Elegant Life 30-1
60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK
A step up in company: stakes before, maiden special weight today. Freshened 153 days. Watch how its recent works look.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 17 (1F in :12.20), 1 work in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
5/31 LA 1.59091f D FutTrl6000 9th/9 -3¾L 62 57-1 Brk out; getting out
5/16 LA 1f D MSW 7th/7 -2¼L 60 12-1 Crowd/bp st; no threat

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/19	LA	1f D	MSW	6th/6 -2¼L	68	7.5-1	b	Off slw;steadied early
8/16	LA	1f D	MSW	4th/5 -2¾L	64	18-1	b	Off slow; no threat

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
5/31	LA	1.59091f D	FutTrl6000	9th/9 -3¾L	62	57-1		Brk out; getting out
5/16	LA	1f D	MSW	7th/7 -2¼L	60	12-1		Crowd/bp st; no threat

4Runner on the RiseG. Vera · M. RodriguezVera · RodriguezA77 84 36▲▲+8↕5-2Fair 9-218%▲▲ Big jump +877 84 36 ↕A3

Card model 18% · Fair odds 9-2 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 36–87 · Last 3 figs 77 84 36

Jockey Gerardo Vera 26% career 4-for-14 on dirt this meet (29%) · Trainer Manuel Rodolfo Rodriguez 33% career 4-for-29 on dirt this meet (14%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Relentless Delight 12-1 · Trainer R6: Relentless Delight 12-1

Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 87, with 86 next best. Gerardo Vera takes over from Luis Martinez in the saddle.

PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 45d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/3	LA	1.81818f D	FutTrl6000	6th/8 -1L	77	31-1	b	Lacked needed kick
8/8	ALB	2f D	FutTrl10000	5th/9 -2L	84	64-1	b L	Improved position;
6/27	ALB	1.81818f D	FutTrl10000	9th/9 -7½L	36	9.3-1	b L	Off slowly; lost path

5Aj Fast PrizeLSG. Lara · J. FloresLara · FloresB68 80 71▼▼-1110-1Fair 12-17%▼▼ Big drop -1168 80 71BLS

Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -11 · Last 3 figs 68 80 71

Longshot read: 10-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 7% against a line of 7%. A read, not a bet.

Jockey Gabriel Angel Gomez Lara 26% career ★ 6-for-29 on dirt this meet (21%) · Trainer Jose Flores 33% career 2-for-31 on dirt this meet (6%)

Also today · Jockey R6: Venture 2-1, R8: Dice Game 9-2 · Trainer R8: Jaque 6-1

New trainer: Sergio Canales had it last time, Jose Flores now. Winless in 4 starts at this distance.

PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 17d ago

RECORD Gabriel Angel Gomez Lara from post 5 here: 16 wins, 55 top-3 in 104 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/11	SWF	1.59091f D	FutTrl10000	8th/8 -5½L	68	40-1	b LB	Early trouble;no rally
7/24	WYO	1.59091f D	FutTrl6000	5th/10 -1L	80	14-1	b LB	In contention; hung
7/3	WYO	1.36364f D	MSW	7th/10 -1L	71	3.2-1	b LB	No rally

6Smashin DiamondsD. Cruz · J. FariasCruz · Farias?15-1Fair 30-13%—Debut?
Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #6 · Tier ?
Jockey Damian Diaz Cruz 33% career 3-for-30 on dirt this meet (10%) · Trainer Jorge Farias 30% career 1-for-13 on dirt this meet (8%)
Also today · Jockey R1: Warmhearted 10-1, R2: Fairlawns Way 7-2, R4: The Dude Abides 30-1, R8: Go Go Ki Ki Go 20-1 · Trainer R3: Drop The Bit 4-1, R5: Toulouse Detrac 12-1, R8: Go Go Ki Ki Go 20-1
Jky 4/35 from post 6
First career start, by Jets Smashin Cash out of The Diamond Cartel. It has been schooling from the gate (latest Oct 10).
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 1 work in 30d and the last 21d back
RECORD Damian Diaz Cruz from post 6 here: 4 wins, 8 top-3 in 35 rides · 7% wins from all posts here
Last three races
First start. By Jets Smashin Cash out of The Diamond Cartel (Valiant Hero)
Jockey D. Cruz in sprints: 3 wins from 68 (4%)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
10/10 LA 1f :12.80 handily 9/12 from gate
7Verssace★I. Lara · J. NunezLara · NunezA82 84 68▲▲+9@trip 849-5Fair 2-132%▲▲ Big jump +982 84 68@trip 84A★ Best at the trip 841
Card model 32% · Fair odds 2-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +9 · Best fig at today's trip 84 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 84 68
★ Best at the trip 84
Jockey Irving Lara 26% career 2-for-24 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Jesus Nunez 27% career 0-for-7 on dirt this meet
Also today · Jockey R6: Quien Sabe Hottie 4-1, R8: Jaque 6-1 · Trainer R3: Sir Nano 8-1
Last out was 2nd, ¾ length behind the winner, in a 6-horse maiden special weight race at LA. 0 for 5 at today's distance.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (0 works in 30d, last 150d back)
RECORD 0 wins, 2 on the board from 5 starts here
RECORD Irving Lara from post 7 here: 9 wins, 29 top-3 in 69 rides · 12% wins from all posts here
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
9/19 LA 1f D MSW 2nd/6 -¾L 82 5.6-1 b Brk thru gate;2d best
8/29 LA 1f D MSW 3rd/7 by nk 84 22-1 b Brk in;steady effort
7/18 LA 1.59091f D MSW 5th/6 -2¼L 68 18-1 b Brk in; weakened late

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
10/10	LA	1f	:12.80	handily	9/12	from gate

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

LOS ALAMITOS · RACE 7

UPCOMING

Maiden Special Weight

Field

7 runners

Purse

$10,000

Post

11:45 PM ET

Pace

Pace Vacuum

Card model top pick

#7 · 32%

Maiden Special Weight, for 2-year-olds.

Maiden special weight — for horses that have never won a race. No horses are for sale; this is the higher-quality way to break a maiden.

● Breed: Quarter Horse

● Track record at 220 Yards: 11.49

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #7 Verssace (a tactical type, M/L 9-5). Recent figures: 82 · 84 · 68. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #1 Cowboy Legacy 123 at 3-1. Use #4 Runner On The Rise in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #7 VERSSACE (9-5) — our number agrees.
#7 VERSSACE — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (28.4% to their 28.0%).
#4 RUNNER ON THE RISE — our #3 number, about right at the windows (22.5% to their 22.4%).
#1 COWBOY LEGACY 123 — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.6% to their 19.6%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.

and works against #1 Cowboy Legacy 123, #2 Ss Drag Along, #3 Rosies Hope.

Lead

none

Press

none

Stalk

none

No style yet

1Cowboy Legacy 1232Ss Drag Along3Rosies Hope4Runner On The Rise5Aj Fast Prize6Smashin Diamonds7Verssace

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Ss Drag Along

Verssace

Cowboy Legacy 123

Rosies Hope

Runner On The Rise

Aj Fast Prize

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