R1 Penn National · Claiming $8,000

5:45 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $19,000 · 5 runners5:45 PM · 6f Dirt · 5 runners

Upcoming $19K · Claiming $8,000

Card modelCard model MediumFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1IkigaiJ. Tunon · E. HernandezTunon · HernandezA74 61 76▲+6@trip 812-1Fair 7-222%▲ Up +674 61 76@trip 81A

Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 61 76

Jockey Jordano Tunon 21% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Enrique Hernandez 31% career

Also today · Jockey R4: Zoey's Honor 6-1

★ FASTEST WORKJky 0/30 from post 1

Drops from $12,500 claiming to $8,000 claiming. Best recent figure is 76, well under the 84 par for this level.

PACE CHALLENGE Pressured on the lead; getting clear early matters. (early-speed points: 7)

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Sep 17; 0 works in 30d

RECORD Jordano Tunon has never won from post 1 here (8 top-3 in 30 rides) · 6% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/2	DEL	5f D	Clm 12k	5th/8 -4L	74	5.9-1	b L	Hard chase;wknd 1/8
8/13	DEL	6f D	Clm 10k b	5th/5 -3½L	61	3.2-1	b L	Gave way inside
7/8	DEL	5½f D	OC 8k	3rd/6 by hd	76	7.1-1	b L	Duel w/winner;faded

2Uncaptured StarW. Corujo · K. FieldsCorujo · FieldsA77 78 65▲+6@trip 785-2Fair 5-229%▲ Up +677 78 65@trip 78A1

Card model 29% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +6 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 78 65

Jockey Wilfredo Corujo 22% career 3-for-20 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Kevin Fields 24% career 2-for-8 on dirt this meet (25%)

Also today · Jockey R3: Bernie Says So 3-1, R4: Katischuo 6-1

5/7 board here

Finished 2nd in a 6-horse $8,000 claiming race at PEN, beaten a head. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 95).

PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Aug 5; 1 work in 30d

RECORD 2 wins, 5 on the board from 7 starts here

RECORD Wilfredo Corujo from post 2 here: 6 wins, 18 top-3 in 30 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/14	PEN	6f D	Clm 8k b	2nd/6 by hd	77	2.5-1	L	Ins;duel 1/2-1/8;game
9/2	PEN	6f D	Clm 8k b	3rd/7 -½L	78	6.4-1	L	Trkd;wtd;finished well
7/1	PEN	6f D	RHP 20-40	6th/7 -2½L	65	5.7-1	L	Ins;shift out 5/16;wkn

3Turbulent ForceR. Rodriguez · S. StettiniusRodriguez · StettiniusB57 73 66▼▼-13@trip 744-1Fair 6-114%▼▼ Big drop -1357 73 66@trip 74B

Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▼▼ Big drop -13 · Best fig at today's trip 74 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 57 73 66

Jockey Ronaldo Rodriguez 34% career · Trainer Suzanne Stettinius 27% career

60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK

Changes barns, from Ronney W Brown to Suzanne Stettinius. Raises its level, $4,000 claiming last time and $8,000 claiming now.

PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 2)

WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 3F on Jul 24; 2 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
8/20	CT	6½f D	Clm 4k n2x	7th/8 -9L	57	2.3-1	L	Chase3w5/16;weakened
8/8	CT	4½f D	Clm 5k b	4th/7 -3¾L	73	7.3-1	L	Bid btw1/8;one paced
5/30	LRL	5½f T	OC 12k	9th/10 -4L	66	2.4-1	L	Faltered; eased

4Yorkville★I. Beato · M. SalvaggioBeato · SalvaggioA82 79 79▲+4≡@trip 823-1Fair 4-121%▲ Up +482 79 79 ≡@trip 82A★ Best at the trip 822

Card model 21% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +4 · ≡ Steady figures 77–82 · Best fig at today's trip 82 (4 tries) · Last 3 figs 82 79 79

★ Best at the trip 82

Jockey Inoel Beato 31% career 5-for-33 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Mark V Salvaggio 30% career 1-for-7 on dirt this meet

CLASS DROPWON LAST2/3 board here

Owns the highest recent figure here at 82. Winner of a 6-horse $4,000 claiming race at PEN last time.

PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.

SHARP LAST OUT Asked 3wd; drew clear last out, and it did it the right way.

WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 30d back)

RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 3 starts here

RECORD Inoel Beato from post 4 here: 21 wins, 57 top-3 in 120 rides · 15% wins from all posts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/7	PEN	6f D	Clm 4k n1y	Won/6	82	2.1-1	L	Asked 3wd; drew clear
1/14	PRX	6f D	Clm 7k n4l	4th/10 -6L	79	3.5-1	L	Angled out; mild rally
12/11	PEN	6f D	OC 12k	6th/8 -1½L	79	19-1	L	3p turn; 5p lane; wknd

5Bells Run▼A. Quinones · F. CifarelliQuinones · CifarelliB71 75 66►@trip 759-2Fair 6-115%► Steady71 75 66@trip 75B▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 843

Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · Best fig at today's trip 75 (8 tries) · Last 3 figs 71 75 66

▼ Best fig 75 is 5+ under today's par 84

Jockey Angel R Quinones 14% career 1-for-22 on dirt this meet (5%) · Trainer Frank Cifarelli 13% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meet

CLASS UP

Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 75 against a 84 par. Dropped in well back early last out, 6th of 6 at the first call.

PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.

WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 41d ago

RECORD 3 wins, 6 on the board from 14 starts here

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/14	PEN	6f D	Clm 8k b	4th/6 -9L	71	34-1	b L	Brk slow;4w;belated
8/12	PEN	6f D	Clm 5k n3x	Won/5 by ½	75	25-1	b L	Bmp st;3w;6w duel upr
6/26	PEN	6f D	Clm 5k n2l	Won/4	66	0.7-1	b L	Prsd pc;2p;kick clear

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

PENN NATIONAL · RACE 1

UPCOMING

Claiming $8,000

Field

5 runners

Purse

$19,000

Post

5:45 PM ET

Pace

Pressed Pace

Card model top pick

#2 · 29%

Claiming $8,000, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.68

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #2 Uncaptured Star (a presser/stalker, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 77 · 78 · 65. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #4 Yorkville at 3-1. Use #5 Bells Run in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #1 IKIGAI (2-1) — our number has it ranked #4.
#1 IKIGAI — our #4 number, about right at the windows (24.7% to their 26.6%).
#2 UNCAPTURED STAR — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (24.4% to their 22.8%).
#4 YORKVILLE — our #2 number, about right at the windows (20.5% to their 20.0%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.

Likely leader: #1 Ikigai; pressure from #3 Turbulent Force, #2 Uncaptured Star; the shape helps #2 Uncaptured Star, #4 Yorkville, #5 Bells Run; and works against #1 Ikigai, #3 Turbulent Force.

Lead

1Ikigai913Turbulent Force86

Press

2Uncaptured Star954Yorkville855Bells Run69

Stalk

none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

Uncaptured Star

Ikigai

Turbulent Force

Yorkville

Bells Run

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Turbulent Force

Yorkville

Uncaptured Star

Bells Run

Ikigai

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Bet types

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$0.50 PICK 3 (RACES 1-2-3)

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