1Zoey's Honor▼J. Tunon · C. ReckTunon · ReckB49 41@trip 496-1Fair 12-18%
—49 41@trip 49B▼ Best fig 49 is 5+ under today's par 75Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Best fig at today's trip 49 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 49 41
▼ Best fig 49 is 5+ under today's par 75Jockey Jordano Tunon 21% career 0-for-2 on dirt this meet · Trainer Christopher R Reck 14% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meetJky 0/30 from post 1Best recent figure is 49, well under the 75 par for this level. Prime Power, the Brisnet rating, puts it on top of this field.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 4)WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 34d agoRECORD Jordano Tunon has never won from post 1 here (8 top-3 in 30 rides) · 6% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/15 PEN 6f D MCL 16k 5th/6 -2¾L 49 32-1 L Bmp brk;3p;faded 7/29 PEN 5½f D sMdSpWt 6th/6 -5¼L 41 20-1 Dropped bk; outrun 2Mesopotamia▼E. Rosario · G. SaccoRosario · SaccoA63 69@trip 697-2Fair 6-114%
—63 69@trip 69A▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 75Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 69 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 69
▼ Best fig 69 is 5+ under today's par 75Also today · Jockey R2: Miss Ida B 7-2, R3: Unbridled Justice 4-1, R6: Zippy Do Da Day 6-1 · Trainer R3: Unbridled Justice 4-1★ FASTEST WORKDrops from maiden special weight to maiden claiming $16,000. Comes off a turf start and tries the dirt here.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.WORKS SHARP 3f in :36.40 on Oct 6 was the best time at that distance that morning; 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/9 DEL 5f T MSW 8th/8 -8½L 63 21-1 b L Inside; no rally 9/24 DEL 6f D MCL 16kc 4th/8 -3¾L 69 2.1-1 b L Svd gnd;pass tiring 3New Jersey Fever▼▲▼D. Haddock · P. SinnefiaHaddock · SinnefiaA62 68@trip 622-1Fair 3-124%
—62 68@trip 62A▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 75▲ Lone speed on early pace▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (62 vs 68)3Card model 24% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Best fig at today's trip 62 (1 tries) · Last 3 figs 62 68
▼ Best fig 68 is 5+ under today's par 75▲ Lone speed on early pace▼ 2nd off a layoff after a poor return (62 vs 68)Jockey Dexter Haddock 28% career 3-for-12 on dirt this meet (25%), #3 of 13 · Trainer Paulina Sinnefia 24% career 5-for-13 on dirt this meet (38%), #1 of 15Finished 3rd last time in a 6-horse maiden claiming $16,000 race at PEN. Worked 4F in :47.80 on Sep 19, 3rd of 31 at the distance.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 6)WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 30d back)RECORD Dexter Haddock from post 3 here: 1 win, 5 top-3 in 16 rides · 14% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/15 PEN 6f D MCL 16k 3rd/6 62 0.5-1 b L Track;2p;chase on 10/23 PEN 5½f D MSW 2nd/8 -4L 68 31-1 b Bump st; 2p; dug place 4KatischuoW. Corujo · L. SheaCorujo · SheaB51 55 54▼-5≡@trip 736-1Fair 7-222%
▼ Down -551 55 54 ≡@trip 73B1Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #1 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -5 · ≡ Steady figures 51–60 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 51 55 54
Jockey Wilfredo Corujo 22% career 3-for-20 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Lydee Shea 15% career 0-for-3 on dirt this meet5/10 board hereCuts back from a mile to 6 furlongs. Class relief: maiden special weight last time, maiden claiming $16,000 today.
EVEN PACE Can sit just off the early fight and pick up whoever tires.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 41 days agoRECORD 0 wins, 5 on the board from 10 starts hereRECORD Wilfredo Corujo from post 4 here: 7 wins, 19 top-3 in 46 rides · 12% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/9 PEN 1m D MSW 4th/4 -13L 51 16-1 b L Chased for 1/2; faded 8/27 PEN 6f D MCL 25k 4th/6 -4L 55 15-1 b L Brushed;lacked finish 8/14 PEN 6f D MSW 6th/6 -10L 54 26-1 b L No factor 5CountyY. Ramos · N. AgnewRamos · Agnew?6-1Fair 10-19%
—Debut?Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier ?
Jockey Yabriel O Ramos 34% career 4-for-35 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Naoise Agnew 15% career 0-for-1 on dirt this meetDebut for this Smarty Jones gelding, whose dam is Elbereth. It has been schooling from the gate (latest Oct 23).
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 7d agoRECORD Yabriel O Ramos from post 5 here: 21 wins, 55 top-3 in 104 rides · 16% wins from all posts hereLast three races
First start. By Smarty Jones out of Elbereth (Jump Start)Trainer N. Agnew: 1st-time starters: 0% wins, 29% in the money (7 starts)Jockey Y. Ramos in sprints: 56 wins from 238 (24%)Work Trk Dist Time How Rank 10/23 PEN 5f 1:04.00 breezing 2/3 from gate 10/16 PEN 5f 1:03.40 breezing 5/7 10/7 PEN 4f :48.20 breezing 5/18 9/5 PEN 4f :49.60 breezing 12/19 from gate 8/29 PEN 4f :50.20 breezing 18/19 6Sense of WonderL. Corujo · M. ZalalasCorujo · ZalalasA-7 66 73▼▼-76@trip 735-2Fair 7-223%
▼▼ Big drop -76-7 66 73@trip 73A2Card model 23% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -76 · Best fig at today's trip 73 (2 tries) · Last 3 figs -7 66 73
Jockey Leonardo Corujo 22% career ★ 5-for-21 on dirt this meet (24%) · Trainer Michael Zalalas 20% career 0-for-5 on dirt this meet180D+ LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSFreshened 519 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Trending the wrong way on speed, 73 to 66 to -7.
PACE CHALLENGE Early speed in a crowded front end; somebody gets worn down. (early-speed points: 5)WORKS SHARP Active work pattern for this group, 3 works in 30d and the last 9d backRECORD 0 wins, 1 on the board from 3 starts hereRECORD Leonardo Corujo from post 6 here: 3 wins, 13 top-3 in 31 rides · 11% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 5/29 PEN 6f D sMdSpWt 5th/5 -17L -7 3.1-1 b L Stopped;eased stretch 5/9 PEN 5½f D sMdSpWt 4th/7 -8½L 66 1.2-1 b L Fractious;4-5p turn 4/23 PEN 6f D sMdSpWt 3rd/9 by hd 73 11-1 b L Set pace; grudgingly
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: honest. Speed from #1, #3, #6.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
PENN NATIONAL · RACE 4
UPCOMINGMaiden Claiming $16,000
Maiden Claiming, for 3-year-olds and up.
Maiden claiming — for horses that have never won, and every starter is also for sale at the claiming price. Typically the easiest class of race.
● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.68
The shape is the story here: 3 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #4 Katischuo (a presser/stalker, M/L 6-1). Recent figures: 51 · 55 · 54. Backup is #6 Sense Of Wonder at 5-2. Use #3 New Jersey Fever in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #3 NEW JERSEY FEVER (2-1) — our number has it ranked #3.
- #3 NEW JERSEY FEVER — our #3 number, about right at the windows (25.5% to their 26.2%).
- #6 SENSE OF WONDER — our #2 number, about right at the windows (23.0% to their 22.5%).
- #2 MESOPOTAMIA — our #4 number, about right at the windows (16.2% to their 17.5%).
Model vs the morning line
- #4 KATISCHUO — we make it 14.5%, the morning line works out to 11.2%. That gap is the model's opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds, and on our records these gaps haven't paid off.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #3 New Jersey Fever; pressure from #6 Sense Of Wonder, #1 Zoey's Honor; and works against #1 Zoey's Honor, #2 Mesopotamia, #3 New Jersey Fever.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
W-P-S / EXACTA / $0.50 TRIFECTA / $0.10 SUPERFECTA / DAILY DOUBLE
$0.50 PICK 3 (RACES 4-5-6) / $0.50 PICK 4 (RACES 4-5-6-7)
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta