R3 Penn National · Optional Claiming $16,000

6:43 PM ET · 6 Furlongs Dirt · $22,000 · 6 runners6:43 PM · 6f Dirt · 6 runners

Upcoming $22K · Optional Claiming $16,000

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles
  1. 1Sunshine JohnnyY. Ramos · F. StitesRamos · StitesB67 69 77▼-6@trip 715-1Fair 6-114%▼ Down -667 69 77@trip 71B

    Card model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 69 77

    Jockey Yabriel O Ramos 34% career 4-for-35 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Flint W Stites 26% career 3-for-14 on dirt this meet (21%)
    Also today · Jockey R4: County 6-1 · Trainer R7: Monica 4-1
    180D+ LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYS

    Returns from a 400-day break, the biggest in the field. Figures have slipped: 77, 69, 67 over its last three.

    EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
    WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 7d ago
    RECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 9 starts here
    RECORD Yabriel O Ramos from post 1 here: 18 wins, 59 top-3 in 132 rides · 16% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/25PEN6f DOC 16k6th/6 -9L674.8-1b L3-2p turn; no threat
    8/22PEN1m DOC 16k4th/5 -8L695.7-1b LSaved ground; outrun
    8/6PEN1 1/16 DOC 16k2nd/6 -½L773.4-1b LRebid ins;led lt;game
  2. 2Bernie Says SoW. Corujo · T. HoughtonCorujo · HoughtonA63 81 69▼▼-9@trip 813-1Fair 5-116%▼▼ Big drop -963 81 69@trip 81A

    Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 81 69

    Jockey Wilfredo Corujo 22% career 3-for-20 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Thomas Houghton 34% career 1-for-12 on dirt this meet (8%)
    Also today · Jockey R1: Uncaptured Star 5-2, R4: Katischuo 6-1
    60D LAYOFFJky 6/30 from post 2

    Finished 5th in a 6-horse optional claiming race at PEN, beaten 7½ lengths. Best recent figure of 81 sits right around the 79 par.

    EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
    TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bad stumbl st; 4-5wd. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.
    WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on May 21 (4F in :49.20), 1 work in 30d
    RECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 4 starts here
    RECORD Wilfredo Corujo from post 2 here: 6 wins, 18 top-3 in 30 rides · 12% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    8/19PEN6f DOC 16k5th/6 -7½L632.6-1b LBad stumbl st;4-5wd
    8/6PEN6f DOC 16kWon/5 by ½817.8-1b L3w;herded out;doggedly
    7/8PEN5f DMCL 16kWon/5 by ½691.3-1b LStp slw;4w run;drv clr
  3. 3RarJ. Torres · E. RathmanTorres · RathmanB74 77 67▲+3@trip 776-1Fair 6-113%▲ Up +374 77 67@trip 77B2

    Card model 13% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +3 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 77 67

    Jockey Jomar Torres 32% career 2-for-24 on dirt this meet (8%) · Trainer Elisha Rathman
    Also today · Jockey R2: Capricorn Belle 6-1, R7: Ravel 5-1 · Trainer R7: Ravel 5-1
    CLASS UP5/6 board here

    3rd of 7 at 4F on Jun 4, in :48.60. 2nd last time, 6 lengths back, in a field of 9.

    EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
    WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 35 days ago
    RECORD 2 wins, 5 on the board from 6 starts here
    RECORD Jomar Torres from post 3 here: 22 wins, 85 top-3 in 172 rides · 19% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/8PEN6f DOC 16k2nd/9 -6L747.8-1b LSplit horses; rallied
    9/2PEN6f DClm 10k n2lWon/5774.0-1b LSeized lead; held sway
    7/25CNL5½f TrClm16000n2l6th/8 -5¾L6715-1b L2p;swung5w; no rally
  4. 4Penn FranklinR. Chiappe · B. KravetsChiappe · KravetsA77 74 60▲▲+8@trip 784-1Fair 7-222%▲▲ Big jump +877 74 60@trip 78A1

    Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 74 60

    Jockey R Chiappe 25% career ★ 10-for-26 on dirt this meet (38%), #2 of 13 · Trainer Bruce M Kravets 27% career ★ 14-for-50 on dirt this meet (28%), #2 of 15
    CLASS UPWON LAST2/3 board here

    Has moved up each time out, 60 to 74 to 77. Last start was a win, in a 6-horse optional claiming race at PEN at 3.4-1.

    EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 31d ago
    RECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 3 starts here
    RECORD R Chiappe from post 4 here: 14 wins, 55 top-3 in 127 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/9PEN6f DsOC16000Won/6773.4-1b LPace;headed;fought on
    9/2PEN6f DClm 10k n2l2nd/5 -1½L742.3-1b LPursued 3w;2nd best
    8/6PEN6f DOC 16k c5th/5 -8½L601.3-1b LBtw-ins;vied;weakned
  5. 5Unbridled Justice▲★E. Rosario · G. SaccoRosario · SaccoA87 43 74▲▲+30↕@trip 874-1Fair 5-116%▲▲ Big jump +30 · career best87 43 74 ↕@trip 87A▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 79★ Best at the trip 873

    Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +30 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 43–87 · Best fig at today's trip 87 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 43 74

    ▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 79★ Best at the trip 87
    Jockey Emanuel Rosario 33% career 0-for-6 on dirt this meet · Trainer Gregory D Sacco 34% career
    Also today · Jockey R2: Miss Ida B 7-2, R4: Mesopotamia 7-2, R6: Zippy Do Da Day 6-1 · Trainer R4: Mesopotamia 7-2
    ★ FASTEST WORKWON LAST

    Tops the field on speed figures, an 87 against 81 for the next best. Jockey switch: Pascacio Lopez last out, Emanuel Rosario today.

    EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
    WORKS SHARP 3f in :37.00 on Sep 15 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    9/30DEL6f DOC 16kWon/6 by hd871.0-1LCarr'd out; prevailed
    9/19LRL6f DOC 25k7th/7 -7L437.2-1b LBid btw;prssrd ins;wkn
    8/22DEL5½f DMCL 12kWon/7743.1-1b LDrew off; driving
  6. 6Miami KazD. Haddock · P. SinnefiaHaddock · SinnefiaB76 73 61▲▲+11@trip 765-2Fair 4-119%▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best76 73 61@trip 76B

    Card model 19% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 76 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 73 61

    Jockey Dexter Haddock 28% career 3-for-12 on dirt this meet (25%), #3 of 13 · Trainer Paulina Sinnefia 24% career 5-for-13 on dirt this meet (38%), #1 of 15
    Also today · Jockey R4: New Jersey Fever 2-1 · Trainer R4: New Jersey Fever 2-1
    WON LAST5/7 board here

    Moves up from $10,000 claiming to optional claiming. 2 wins from 5 starts at this distance.

    EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
    SHARP LAST OUT Chased 5wd; drew off last out, and it did it the right way.
    WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 30d ago
    RECORD 2 wins, 5 on the board from 7 starts here
    RECORD Dexter Haddock from post 6 here: 2 wins, 12 top-3 in 24 rides · 14% wins from all posts here

    Last three races

    DateTrkDistClassFinishFigOddsEqTrip
    10/16PEN6f DClm 10k n2lWon/4760.4-1b LChased 5wd; drew off
    9/2PEN6f DClm 10k n2l3rd/5 -2L730.7-1b LTrkd;willing;need more
    7/1PEN1 1/16 TOC 16k7th/7 -12L618.1-1b LUrged btw 1/2;wknd

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.

How to read these marks
1 2 3
Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair
The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?
The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72
Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕
≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★
Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips
Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
¼½FINISHSTART6 FURLONGS · DIRT · main1-turn · chute start

PENN NATIONAL · RACE 3

UPCOMING

Optional Claiming $16,000

Field
6 runners
Purse
$22,000
Post
6:43 PM ET
Pace
Tactical / Honest
Card model top pick
#4 · 22%

Claiming $16,000, for 3-year-olds and up.

Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.

● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.68

The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.

Our number tops on #4 Penn Franklin (a presser/stalker, M/L 4-1). Recent figures: 77 · 74 · 60. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #3 Rar at 6-1. Use #5 Unbridled Justice in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

  • Market favourite #6 MIAMI KAZ (5-2) — our number has it ranked #5.
  • #6 MIAMI KAZ — our #5 number, about right at the windows (22.0% to their 22.9%).
  • #2 BERNIE SAYS SO — our #6 number, about right at the windows (19.2% to their 20.1%).
  • #4 PENN FRANKLIN — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (17.5% to their 16.1%).

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

  • The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #4 Penn Franklin; pressure from #5 Unbridled Justice, #3 Rar.

Lead
none
Press
4Penn Franklin945Unbridled Justice863Rar856Miami Kaz841Sunshine Johnny82
Stalk
2Bernie Says So74
Close
none

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners

4
Penn Franklin
94
5
Unbridled Justice
86
3
Rar
85
6
Miami Kaz
84
1
Sunshine Johnny
82
2
Bernie Says So
74

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

6
Miami Kaz
18
4
Penn Franklin
16
1
Sunshine Johnny
15
5
Unbridled Justice
12
2
Bernie Says So
10
3
Rar
10
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Bet types

Wagers offered on this race.

W-P-S / EXACTA / $0.50 TRIFECTA / $0.10 SUPERFECTA / DAILY DOUBLE

$0.50 PICK 3 (RACES 3-4-5) / $2.00 PICK 5 (RACES 3-7)

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