1Sunshine JohnnyY. Ramos · F. StitesRamos · StitesB67 69 77▼-6@trip 715-1Fair 6-114%
▼ Down -667 69 77@trip 71BCard model 14% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -6 · Best fig at today's trip 71 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 67 69 77
Jockey Yabriel O Ramos 34% career 4-for-35 on dirt this meet (11%) · Trainer Flint W Stites 26% career 3-for-14 on dirt this meet (21%)180D+ LAYOFF3 WORKS IN 30 DAYSReturns from a 400-day break, the biggest in the field. Figures have slipped: 77, 69, 67 over its last three.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 3 works in 30d, last 7d agoRECORD 1 win, 4 on the board from 9 starts hereRECORD Yabriel O Ramos from post 1 here: 18 wins, 59 top-3 in 132 rides · 16% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/25 PEN 6f D OC 16k 6th/6 -9L 67 4.8-1 b L 3-2p turn; no threat 8/22 PEN 1m D OC 16k 4th/5 -8L 69 5.7-1 b L Saved ground; outrun 8/6 PEN 1 1/16 D OC 16k 2nd/6 -½L 77 3.4-1 b L Rebid ins;led lt;game 2Bernie Says SoW. Corujo · T. HoughtonCorujo · HoughtonA63 81 69▼▼-9@trip 813-1Fair 5-116%
▼▼ Big drop -963 81 69@trip 81ACard model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #6 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -9 · Best fig at today's trip 81 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 63 81 69
Jockey Wilfredo Corujo 22% career 3-for-20 on dirt this meet (15%) · Trainer Thomas Houghton 34% career 1-for-12 on dirt this meet (8%)60D LAYOFFJky 6/30 from post 2Finished 5th in a 6-horse optional claiming race at PEN, beaten 7½ lengths. Best recent figure of 81 sits right around the 79 par.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bad stumbl st; 4-5wd. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on May 21 (4F in :49.20), 1 work in 30dRECORD 2 wins, 3 on the board from 4 starts hereRECORD Wilfredo Corujo from post 2 here: 6 wins, 18 top-3 in 30 rides · 12% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/19 PEN 6f D OC 16k 5th/6 -7½L 63 2.6-1 b L Bad stumbl st;4-5wd 8/6 PEN 6f D OC 16k Won/5 by ½ 81 7.8-1 b L 3w;herded out;doggedly 7/8 PEN 5f D MCL 16k Won/5 by ½ 69 1.3-1 b L Stp slw;4w run;drv clr 3RarJ. Torres · E. RathmanTorres · RathmanB74 77 67▲+3@trip 776-1Fair 6-113%
▲ Up +374 77 67@trip 77B2Card model 13% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #2 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +3 · Best fig at today's trip 77 (6 tries) · Last 3 figs 74 77 67
CLASS UP5/6 board here3rd of 7 at 4F on Jun 4, in :48.60. 2nd last time, 6 lengths back, in a field of 9.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 35 days agoRECORD 2 wins, 5 on the board from 6 starts hereRECORD Jomar Torres from post 3 here: 22 wins, 85 top-3 in 172 rides · 19% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/8 PEN 6f D OC 16k 2nd/9 -6L 74 7.8-1 b L Split horses; rallied 9/2 PEN 6f D Clm 10k n2l Won/5 77 4.0-1 b L Seized lead; held sway 7/25 CNL 5½f T rClm16000n2l 6th/8 -5¾L 67 15-1 b L 2p;swung5w; no rally 4Penn FranklinR. Chiappe · B. KravetsChiappe · KravetsA77 74 60▲▲+8@trip 784-1Fair 7-222%
▲▲ Big jump +877 74 60@trip 78A1Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +8 · Best fig at today's trip 78 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 77 74 60
Jockey R Chiappe 25% career ★ 10-for-26 on dirt this meet (38%), #2 of 13 · Trainer Bruce M Kravets 27% career ★ 14-for-50 on dirt this meet (28%), #2 of 15CLASS UPWON LAST2/3 board hereHas moved up each time out, 60 to 74 to 77. Last start was a win, in a 6-horse optional claiming race at PEN at 3.4-1.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 31d agoRECORD 1 win, 2 on the board from 3 starts hereRECORD R Chiappe from post 4 here: 14 wins, 55 top-3 in 127 rides · 14% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/9 PEN 6f D sOC16000 Won/6 77 3.4-1 b L Pace;headed;fought on 9/2 PEN 6f D Clm 10k n2l 2nd/5 -1½L 74 2.3-1 b L Pursued 3w;2nd best 8/6 PEN 6f D OC 16k c 5th/5 -8½L 60 1.3-1 b L Btw-ins;vied;weakned 5Unbridled Justice▲★E. Rosario · G. SaccoRosario · SaccoA87 43 74▲▲+30↕@trip 874-1Fair 5-116%
▲▲ Big jump +30 · career best87 43 74 ↕@trip 87A▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 79★ Best at the trip 873Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +30 · career best · ↕ Up-and-down figures 43–87 · Best fig at today's trip 87 (3 tries) · Last 3 figs 87 43 74
▲ Last fig 87 at/above par 79★ Best at the trip 87Also today · Jockey R2: Miss Ida B 7-2, R4: Mesopotamia 7-2, R6: Zippy Do Da Day 6-1 · Trainer R4: Mesopotamia 7-2★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTTops the field on speed figures, an 87 against 81 for the next best. Jockey switch: Pascacio Lopez last out, Emanuel Rosario today.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.WORKS SHARP 3f in :37.00 on Sep 15 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/30 DEL 6f D OC 16k Won/6 by hd 87 1.0-1 L Carr'd out; prevailed 9/19 LRL 6f D OC 25k 7th/7 -7L 43 7.2-1 b L Bid btw;prssrd ins;wkn 8/22 DEL 5½f D MCL 12k Won/7 74 3.1-1 b L Drew off; driving 6Miami KazD. Haddock · P. SinnefiaHaddock · SinnefiaB76 73 61▲▲+11@trip 765-2Fair 4-119%
▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best76 73 61@trip 76BCard model 19% · Fair odds 4-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · Best fig at today's trip 76 (5 tries) · Last 3 figs 76 73 61
Jockey Dexter Haddock 28% career 3-for-12 on dirt this meet (25%), #3 of 13 · Trainer Paulina Sinnefia 24% career 5-for-13 on dirt this meet (38%), #1 of 15WON LAST5/7 board hereMoves up from $10,000 claiming to optional claiming. 2 wins from 5 starts at this distance.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.SHARP LAST OUT Chased 5wd; drew off last out, and it did it the right way.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 1 work in 30d, last one 30d agoRECORD 2 wins, 5 on the board from 7 starts hereRECORD Dexter Haddock from post 6 here: 2 wins, 12 top-3 in 24 rides · 14% wins from all posts hereLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/16 PEN 6f D Clm 10k n2l Won/4 76 0.4-1 b L Chased 5wd; drew off 9/2 PEN 6f D Clm 10k n2l 3rd/5 -2L 73 0.7-1 b L Trkd;willing;need more 7/1 PEN 1 1/16 T OC 16k 7th/7 -12L 61 8.1-1 b L Urged btw 1/2;wknd
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (5 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
PENN NATIONAL · RACE 3
UPCOMINGOptional Claiming $16,000
Claiming $16,000, for 3-year-olds and up.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
● Track record at 6 Furlongs: 67.68
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #4 Penn Franklin (a presser/stalker, M/L 4-1). Recent figures: 77 · 74 · 60. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #3 Rar at 6-1. Use #5 Unbridled Justice in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #6 MIAMI KAZ (5-2) — our number has it ranked #5.
- #6 MIAMI KAZ — our #5 number, about right at the windows (22.0% to their 22.9%).
- #2 BERNIE SAYS SO — our #6 number, about right at the windows (19.2% to their 20.1%).
- #4 PENN FRANKLIN — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (17.5% to their 16.1%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.
Likely leader: #4 Penn Franklin; pressure from #5 Unbridled Justice, #3 Rar.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
W-P-S / EXACTA / $0.50 TRIFECTA / $0.10 SUPERFECTA / DAILY DOUBLE
$0.50 PICK 3 (RACES 3-4-5) / $2.00 PICK 5 (RACES 3-7)
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta