Our top three by win chance, with the morning line beside each horse. Confidence = our top-rated horse's win chance: Strong 35%+, Medium 25-35%, Wide open under 25%. ▲/▼ angles, ★ best figure at the trip, LS = longshot read (8-1+ on the line, model rates it higher). Tap a race number for the full field and a name for the horse's page. These are notes from the past performances, not proven to beat the odds; the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top pick. Analysis only.
● Live race intelligence · code PEN
Penn National
Friday, October 30, 2026.
Races
7
on the card
Feature
R5
Optional Claiming $25,000 · $26K
First post
5:45 PM
ET · race 1
Runners
40
avg field 6
● Track conditions today
Penn National — today's signals
Surface read
±0.96s MODERATE
Surface moves a moderate amount day to day — we apply the daily variant so figures stay comparable across the meet.
day-to-day swing · 101 race-days sampled
Weather
Unavailable
No forecast for this track right now — surface read defaults to the listed condition.
Carryover pool
None today
No mandatory or jackpot carryover detected at this track. Standard pools today.
Do the model's percentages hold up?
Mostly
Across finished races the model's win chances mostly match how often its picks win, but its most confident picks win a few points less than it says. The morning-line favourite still wins more often than the model's top pick.
checked against 2,848 finished races · as of 2026-06-06
TRACK BIAS · WIN % BY POST
Best post #6 (14%) · Rail helps
Even by post — inside 12% / outside 10%. Bars show each post’s win rate vs the track average over 18,475 starts.
Where the model is most sure
Three highest model win %.
The three races where the model's top pick has its highest win chance, with the morning line beside it. Most of these are the favourite too. Tap for the full race.
Every Daily Double and Pick 3/4/5/6 on today's card, with the model's top pick in each leg,
or its top two or three when the leg is close. A Pick N is one pari-mutuel pool: you need the winner of every leg, and the pool is split among the tickets that have them all.
This is analysis, not a ticket or a staking plan.
Pick 3Races 1–3 · $0.50 min
R1#2 Uncaptured StarTop pick
R2#2 Didn't It Rain · #3 Savor ItClose: top 2
R3#4 Penn FranklinTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 2–4 · $0.50 min
R2#2 Didn't It Rain · #3 Savor ItClose: top 2
R3#4 Penn FranklinTop pick
R4#4 KatischuoTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 3–5 · $0.50 min
R3#4 Penn FranklinTop pick
R4#4 KatischuoTop pick
R5#3 PersianTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 5Races 3–7 · $2.00 min
R3#4 Penn FranklinTop pick
R4#4 KatischuoTop pick
R5#3 PersianTop pick
R6#4 Kazillion · #2 LadsfirstloveClose: top 2
R7#6 ManonTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 4–6 · $0.50 min
R4#4 KatischuoTop pick
R5#3 PersianTop pick
R6#4 Kazillion · #2 LadsfirstloveClose: top 2
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 4Races 4–7 · $0.50 min
R4#4 KatischuoTop pick
R5#3 PersianTop pick
R6#4 Kazillion · #2 LadsfirstloveClose: top 2
R7#6 ManonTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Pick 3Races 5–7 · $0.50 min
R5#3 PersianTop pick
R6#4 Kazillion · #2 LadsfirstloveClose: top 2
R7#6 ManonTop pick
The model’s read per leg, not a ticket.
Today's races
Race-by-race with archetype.
Each race is tagged with pace archetype (TACTICAL · SPEED DUEL · LONE SPEED · CLOSERS' RACE · PACE VACUUM · PRESSED PACE). Click any row for the full Verdict, Pace Shape, Full Field, Workouts, and Wagers.
For information only — not financial or wagering advice. Must be 21+ to wager where required by law. If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, help is available.