SWA · RACE 1
UPCOMINGClaiming $30,000
Claiming $30,000, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won two races other than maiden, claiming, or starter.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #6 Birkin Girl (a closer, M/L 5-1). Recent figures: 64 · 78 · 87. Backup is #5 In For A Spin at 15-1. Use #7 Cool American in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Figures have slipped: 87, 78, 64 over its last three. Moves up from $20,000 claiming to $30,000 claiming.
Was running in allowance; today's $30,000 claiming is an easier level on paper. Tops the field on speed figures, a 90 against 87 for the next best.
Carries 113 pounds, 5 less than last time. 3rd of 15 at 4F on Sep 6, in :49.40.
341 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Changes barns, from Linda Rice to Cipriano Contreras.
Best recent figure is 66, well under the 78 par for this level. Trending the wrong way on speed, 66 to 61 to 60.
Last start was a win, in a 10-horse $20,000 claiming race at IND at 9.7-1. Has moved up each time out, 51 to 64 to 72.
Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Raises its level, $20,000 claiming last time and $30,000 claiming now.
New trainer: James Butcher had it last time, Randy Matthews now. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.
Comes in off a victory in an 8-horse maiden special weight race at LS. Freshened 142 days. Watch how its recent works look.
0 for 8 at today's distance. Finished 9th in an 11-horse allowance race at KEE, beaten 11 lengths.
At a glance
- Market favourite #9 TIZ WINE TIME (2-1) — our number has it ranked #6.
- #9 TIZ WINE TIME — our #6 number, about right at the windows (24.1% to their 25.5%).
- #6 BIRKIN GIRL — our top number on the card, and the board's letting him go too cheap — we make him 15.4%, they've got 12.8%.
- #10 GOLDENAGEACTRESS — our #4 number, about right at the windows (14.2% to their 15.3%).
Value read
- #6 BIRKIN GIRL — we make it 15.4%, the morning line implies 12.8%. We're 20.2 points higher than the line — our opinion, not a price; pools pay the final odds.
- Longshot value: #5 IN FOR A SPIN (15-1) — our fair 5.9% is above the morning line's 4.8%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #10 Goldenageactress; pressure from #9 Tiz Wine Time, #5 In For A Spin; the shape helps #1 Si O Si, #2 Belongtothenavy, #3 Justice Prevails; and works against #10 Goldenageactress.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — an honest, pressed pace rewards the best horse — key tickets fit. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Win
#6 Birkin Girl
Top of the field by a clear 9-pt IQ margin — the play stands alone to win.
Exacta — KEY
#6 Birkin Girl OVER #5 In For A Spin · #7 Cool American · #10 Goldenageactress
Key #6 Birkin Girl on top over your contenders for the 2nd slot.
Trifecta — KEY/WHEEL
#6 Birkin Girl / #5 In For A Spin · #7 Cool American · #10 Goldenageactress / #5 In For A Spin · #7 Cool American · #10 Goldenageactress · #1 Si O Si
#6 Birkin Girl keyed 1st, your contenders filling 2nd–3rd.
Superfecta — KEY
#6 Birkin Girl / #5 In For A Spin · #7 Cool American · #10 Goldenageactress · #1 Si O Si / #5 In For A Spin · #7 Cool American · #10 Goldenageactress · #1 Si O Si / ALL or #5 In For A Spin · #7 Cool American · #10 Goldenageactress · #1 Si O Si
Deep enough field to spread a super — key the top, spread the next few, fill 4th wide.
Bet types offered at this track →
LEG 1 OF THE HORSESHOE TURF PICK 3