SWA · RACE 2
UPCOMINGClaiming $12,500
Claiming $12,500, for 3-year-olds and up.
Claiming race — every starter can be bought for the claiming price out of the race, so owners risk losing a horse that's clearly best. That keeps the field evenly matched on ability.
The shape is the story here: 6 confirmed front-runners should pressure each other early, which tilts the race toward stalkers and closers who can pick up the pieces late.
Our number tops on #16 St. Armands Key (early speed, M/L 5-2). Recent figures: 92 · 85 · 86. It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #2 Woodcock Flight at 6-1. Use #12 Got Stripes in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Freshened 261 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Owns the highest recent figure here at 92.
Last out was 3rd, 4¾ lengths behind the winner, in a 10-horse $12,500 claiming race at IND. Best recent figure of 80 sits right around the 80 par.
Comes in off a victory in a 7-horse $10,000 claiming race at LAD. Off 50 days since the last start.
Needs to move up: the best of its last five is 69 against a 80 par. 2 wins from 5 starts at this distance.
Gets a new rider, Joseph M Romero replacing Samuel E Bermudez. Has moved up each time out, 65 to 72 to 78.
3rd of 9 at 3F on Jun 4, in :37.20. Figures are climbing: 65, 66, 76 over its last three.
Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Beaten a head for 2nd in a 7-horse $15,000 claiming race at BTP.
Stretches out from 5½ furlongs to a mile. Drops from allowance to $12,500 claiming.
Jose Orantes takes over the training from Yoni R Orantes. 4 wins from 10 starts at this distance.
New trainer: Randy Matthews had it last time, Anna M Meah now. Has won 4 of 11 going today's distance.
Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. A 49-day gap since its last race.
Figures are climbing: 60, 71, 75 over its last three. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 90).
Goes a mile after running 6 furlongs last time. A step up in company: $7,500 claiming before, $12,500 claiming today.
Switches from dirt to turf. Raises its level, allowance last time and $12,500 claiming now.
Moves up from optional claiming to $12,500 claiming. Has moved up each time out, 67 to 75 to 78.
Carries 117 pounds, 7 less than last time. Switches from dirt to turf.
At a glance
- Market favourite #16 ST. ARMANDS KEY (5-2) — our number agrees.
- #16 ST. ARMANDS KEY — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (18.4% to their 16.4%).
- #10 BORN FLASHY — our #5 number, a price play — we're at 9.1%, the board 9.6%.
- #3 ELEVATED GAME — our #10 number, a price play — we're at 9.0%, the board 9.6%.
Value read
- Longshot value: #7 SHANE FALCO (25-1) — our fair 2.6% is above the morning line's 2.2%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pace
Speed Duel. Three or more early-speed types. Fast pace, hot fractions — closers benefit.
Likely leader: #12 Got Stripes; pressure from #6 Brit's Wit, #7 Shane Falco; the shape helps #9 Summer Lover, #13 Navy Soul; and works against #1 Memphis Pharoah, #6 Brit's Wit, #7 Shane Falco.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — the projected speed duel sets up closers underneath — spread the exotics deeper. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Win
#16 St. Armands Key
Top of the field by a clear 20-pt IQ margin — the play stands alone to win.
Exacta — KEY
#16 St. Armands Key OVER #2 Woodcock Flight · #12 Got Stripes · #7 Shane Falco
Key #16 St. Armands Key on top over your contenders for the 2nd slot.
Trifecta — KEY/WHEEL
#16 St. Armands Key / #2 Woodcock Flight · #12 Got Stripes · #7 Shane Falco / #2 Woodcock Flight · #12 Got Stripes · #7 Shane Falco · #10 Born Flashy
#16 St. Armands Key keyed 1st, your contenders filling 2nd–3rd.
Superfecta — KEY
#16 St. Armands Key / #2 Woodcock Flight · #12 Got Stripes · #7 Shane Falco · #10 Born Flashy / #2 Woodcock Flight · #12 Got Stripes · #7 Shane Falco · #10 Born Flashy / ALL or #2 Woodcock Flight · #12 Got Stripes · #7 Shane Falco · #10 Born Flashy
Deep enough field to spread a super — key the top, spread the next few, fill 4th wide.
Bet types offered at this track →
LEG 2 OF THE HORSESHOE TURF PICK 3