SWA · RACE 3
UPCOMINGAllowance · $46,240 purse
Allowance, for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up, that have not won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter.
Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #7 Cinquante Cinq (a closer, M/L 9-2). Recent figures: 76 · 69 · 68. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #1 Let's Go Barbie at 10-1. Use #10 Surprenant Cocca in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
The field, ranked
Our order, top to bottom.
Figures are climbing: 68, 69, 76 over its last three. Winner of a 9-horse maiden special weight race at IND last time.
Switches from dirt to turf. Moves up from allowance to allowance.
Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Figures have slipped: 83, 80, 63 over its last three.
Has won 2 of 4 going today's distance. A 78 top number against a 79 par, so it fits the level.
Dropped in well back early last out, 10th of 10 at the first call. 3rd of 19 at 4F on Aug 18, in :48.00.
A step up in company: allowance before, allowance today. Finished 2nd last time in a 7-horse allowance race at IND.
2nd last time, 1 length back, in a field of 8. Jockey switch: Ricardo Barrios last out, Jose Ramos Gutierrez today.
Last start was a win, in a 6-horse allowance race at IND at 5.8-1. A 47-day gap since its last race.
Comes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Runs for $46,240 today after a $150,000 race last time.
Goes a mile after running 5½ furlongs last time. Rave Danilo Grisales takes over from Summer Pauly in the saddle.
Stretches out from 6 furlongs to a mile. Figure of 84 on the record sits above the 79 par.
Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 85, with 84 next best. Trending the wrong way on speed, 85 to 75 to 65.
Worked 4F in :49.40 on Jun 13, 2nd of 8 at the distance. Best recent figure is 67, well under the 79 par for this level.
Gets a new rider, Luan Machado replacing Dylan Machado. Raises its level, allowance last time and allowance now.
Susan L Anderson takes over the training from Brittany T Russell. Freshened 110 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look.
Fastest 5F work of its morning on Oct 7 (1:00.20), a sign it is training forwardly. A step up in company: allowance before, allowance today.
At a glance
- Market favourite #14 MAX (5-2) — our number has it ranked #5.
- #14 MAX — our #5 number, about right at the windows (13.3% to their 14.0%).
- #13 DREAMING OF JOY — our #16 number, about right at the windows (12.4% to their 14.0%).
- #3 COLLECTIVE BEAUTY — our #6 number, about right at the windows (11.8% to their 12.3%).
Value read
- No price-band edge — the market looks efficient here.
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #10 Surprenant Cocca; pressure from #2 Kenz, #11 Stormy Paradise; the shape helps #1 Let's Go Barbie, #2 Kenz, #3 Collective Beauty; and works against #10 Surprenant Cocca.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
How to play it
How we'd structure it from our ranking + pace read — an honest, pressed pace rewards the best horse — key tickets fit. Structures and logic only; the stake is yours.
Win
#7 Cinquante Cinq
Top of the field by a clear 13-pt IQ margin — the play stands alone to win.
Exacta — KEY
#7 Cinquante Cinq OVER #1 Let's Go Barbie · #10 Surprenant Cocca · #12 Never Really Know
Key #7 Cinquante Cinq on top over your contenders for the 2nd slot.
Trifecta — KEY/WHEEL
#7 Cinquante Cinq / #1 Let's Go Barbie · #10 Surprenant Cocca · #12 Never Really Know / #1 Let's Go Barbie · #10 Surprenant Cocca · #12 Never Really Know · #14 Max
#7 Cinquante Cinq keyed 1st, your contenders filling 2nd–3rd.
Superfecta — KEY
#7 Cinquante Cinq / #1 Let's Go Barbie · #10 Surprenant Cocca · #12 Never Really Know · #14 Max / #1 Let's Go Barbie · #10 Surprenant Cocca · #12 Never Really Know · #14 Max / ALL or #1 Let's Go Barbie · #10 Surprenant Cocca · #12 Never Really Know · #14 Max
Deep enough field to spread a super — key the top, spread the next few, fill 4th wide.
Bet types offered at this track →
LEG 3 OF THE HORSESHOE TURF PICK 3