1Saint Dymphna▼J. Rodriguez · A. GreenRodriguez · GreenC67 76 72►↕12-1Fair 15-16%
► Steady67 76 72 ↕C▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 84Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #7 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · ↕ Up-and-down figures 50–76 · Last 3 figs 67 76 72
▼ Best fig 76 is 5+ under today's par 844 WORKS IN 30 DAYSLast race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Beaten 10 lengths for 4th in a 7-horse race at SAR.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.TROUBLED TRIP Stumbled st; tired last out; the speed figure already reflects it.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 4 works in 30d, last 7d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/4 SAR 6f D fsSeeknAnteB200k 4th/7 -10L 67 19-1 b Stumbled st; tired 8/9 SAR 5½f T fsMdSpWt Won/12 76 7.8-1 b 2-4p trn;lead3/16;held 7/23 SAR 5½f T MSW 5th/10 -5½L 72 28-1 b Chased 4-3w; weakened 2Belmont Street▲C. Elliott · R. DutrowElliott · DutrowA85 746-1Fair 8-110%
—85 74A▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 84Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 85 74
▲ Last fig 85 at/above par 84Raises its level, maiden special weight last time and stakes nongraded now. Last out was 4th, 1 length behind the winner, in an 11-horse maiden special weight race at BEL.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS SHARP Fit-looking prep next to these rivals: 2 works in 30d, last 5d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/4 BEL 1 1/16 T MSW 4th/11 -1L 85 25-1 Tracked ins; kept on 8/21 SAR 1 1/16 T MSW 3rd/8 -7½L 74 14-1 Ins1st;2-4p2nd;8p3/16 3Extravaganzoo▲S. Marin · G. WeaverMarin · WeaverA86 84 90▲▲+14↕3-1Fair 3-126%
▲▲ Big jump +1486 84 90 ↕A▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 841Card model 26% · Fair odds 3-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +14 · ↕ Up-and-down figures 41–90 · Last 3 figs 86 84 90
▲ Last fig 86 at/above par 84WON LASTTops the field on speed figures, a 90 against 89 for the next best. Stretches out from 6½ furlongs to a mile.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: 4-5w uppr; edged clear. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 4F on Sep 11; 2 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 BEL 6½f T fsJoeAGimmaB175k Won/6 by ½ 86 0.5-1 4-5w uppr; edged clear 8/26 SAR 5½f T BltnLndng Stk 3rd/8 -1½L 84 2.6-1 2-3p turn;5p1/4;chased 7/16 SAR 5½f T fsMdSpWt Won/10 90 2.3-1 Mvd in;2p turn;lead1/4 4Boomesherang▼LSE. Zayas · G. WeaverZayas · WeaverC61 5520-1Fair 20-15%
—61 55C▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 84LSCard model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #8 · Tier C · Last 3 figs 61 55
▼ Best fig 61 is 5+ under today's par 84LSLongshot read: 20-1 on the morning line, and the model has it at 5% against a line of 4%. A read, not a bet.
A longer trip: 6½ furlongs last out, a mile today. Best recent figure is 61, well under the 84 par for this level.
EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 2 works in 30d and the last 7 days agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 BEL 6½f T fsJoeAGimmaB175k 6th/6 -7L 61 16-1 Chased 4w; tired 7/21 PID 5f D MSW Won/6 by 1 55 1.1-1 Bump st;much best 5Blessednotbothered▼K. Davis · M. FerraroDavis · FerraroC59 63 53►20-1Fair 30-13%
► Steady59 63 53C▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 84Card model 3% · Fair odds 30-1 · Our #10 · Tier C · Form ► Steady · Last 3 figs 59 63 53
▼ Best fig 63 is 5+ under today's par 843 WORKS IN 30 DAYS★ FASTEST WORKWON LASTComes in off a victory in a 5-horse maiden special weight race at PID. A step up in company: maiden special weight before, stakes nongraded today.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Crcled 5w; clsd well. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 23 (5F in 1:01.20), 3 works in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/22 PID 1m D MSW Won/5 by 1½ 59 4.7-1 Crcled 5w;clsd well 8/25 FL 5f D MSW 4th/6 -8L 63 1.4-1 4w trn; weakened 8/1 SAR 6f D fsMdSpWt 4th/6 -10L 53 15-1 2p turn;4p into lane 6Gold Fashioned▼R. Maragh · J. AntonucciMaragh · AntonucciB74 7310-1Fair 12-18%
—74 73B▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 84Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 74 73
▼ Best fig 74 is 5+ under today's par 84★ FASTEST WORKPosted the fastest 5F work of the morning on Oct 21, in 1:01.00. Goes a mile after running 6½ furlongs last time.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Brush gate; weakened. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.WORKS SHARP 5f in 1:01.00 on Oct 21 was the best time at that distance that morning; 1 work in 30dLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 BEL 6½f T fsJoeAGimmaB175k 4th/6 -6½L 74 5.3-1 Brush gate; weakened 9/2 SAR 5½f T MSW Won/10 73 6.3-1 3w pursuit; edged away 7Under the MoonJ. Ruiz · J. SharpRuiz · Sharp?12-1Fair 20-15%
—Debut?Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #9 · Tier ?
Debut for this Greatest Honour filly, whose dam is Nicorina. First start coming, and it has been busy in the mornings: 12 works since Jun 6.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 2 works in 30d, last one 22d agoLast three races
First start. By Greatest Honour out of Nicorina (Gormley)Jockey J. Ruiz in turf: 64 wins from 405 (16%)Work Trk Dist Time How Rank 10/9 BEL 5f 1:02.40 breezing 5/10 10/2 BEL 4f :48.60 breezing 23/69 9/11 BEL 4f :49.40 breezing 46/77 8/28 SAR 4f :49.40 breezing 17/27 8/2 SAR 5f 1:02.80 breezing 22/25 8Luck Penny▼J. Lezcano · G. WeaverLezcano · WeaverB70 66 52▲▲+115-1Fair 8-111%
▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best70 66 52B▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 843Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +11 · career best · Last 3 figs 70 66 52
▼ Best fig 70 is 5+ under today's par 84◆ NOTE · TRIP TROUBLEWON LASTHas moved up each time out, 52 to 66 to 70. Moves up from maiden special weight to stakes nongraded.
EVEN PACE With the front end pressed, the late run has something to run at.TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Bumped st; surged; up. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 22d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/18 BEL 6½f T fsMdSpWt Won/10 by 2½ 70 5.9-1 Bumped st; surged; up 9/18 BEL 7f D fsMdSpWt 6th/12 -12L 66 7.4-1 Ins-2p turn;7p3/16 8/1 SAR 6f D fsMdSpWt 5th/6 -8½L 52 8.9-1 3p;bmpd hard1/4;wknd 9Golden Maiden▼A. Fresu · K. McPeekFresu · McPeekB66 795-1Fair 8-111%
—66 79B▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 84Card model 11% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 66 79
▼ Best fig 79 is 5+ under today's par 84Runs for $175,000 today after a $400,000 race last time. Carries 122 pounds, 4 more than last time.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 6)TROUBLED TRIP Chart note from last time: Press 2w; faltered btw. A trip worth forgiving, though the number already carries it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (1 work in 30d, last 7d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/2 KEE 1 1/16 T Jessamn G2 11th/11 -8¾L 66 11-1 Press 2w;faltered btw 8/30 SAR 1 1/16 T fsMdSpWt Won/12 79 4.2-1 Cut corner;geared down 10Forecheck▲▲D. Davis · L. RiceDavis · RiceA89 777-2Fair 5-117%
—89 77A▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 84▲ Lone speed on early pace2Card model 17% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Last 3 figs 89 77
▲ Last fig 89 at/above par 84▲ Lone speed on early paceWON LASTWon last out in a 12-horse maiden special weight race at BEL. Went to the front early last out (early pace figure 105).
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS LIGHT Light on works against these rivals (2 works in 30d, last 7d back)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/3 BEL 6f T fsMdSpWt Won/12 89 1.7-1 Ins trn;clear3/16-1/16 9/4 SAR 5½f T fsMdSpWt 2nd/10 -3½L 77 12-1 3w pursuit; late foot
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
SWN · RACE 1
UPCOMINGKey Cents Stakes
Stakes, for fillies, 2-year-olds, restricted to state-bred (registered) horses.
Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #3 Extravaganzoo (a presser/stalker, M/L 3-1). Recent figures: 86 · 84 · 90. It exits a win and is clearly doing well. Backup is #10 Forecheck at 7-2. Use #8 Luck Penny in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #3 EXTRAVAGANZOO (3-1) — our number agrees.
- #3 EXTRAVAGANZOO — our top number on the card, about right at the windows (21.3% to their 19.4%).
- #10 FORECHECK — our #2 number, about right at the windows (18.4% to their 17.2%).
- #8 LUCK PENNY — our #3 number, about right at the windows (12.0% to their 12.9%).
Model vs the morning line
- The model and the morning line roughly agree on this field.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #9 Golden Maiden; pressure from #10 Forecheck, #6 Gold Fashioned; the shape helps #1 Saint Dymphna, #2 Belmont Street, #3 Extravaganzoo; and works against #7 Under The Moon, #9 Golden Maiden.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
LEG A OF THE NYRA - JRA DOUBLE
BET OPTIONS
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