Pick sheet

Race 33:00 PM Alw 1nc

11F · Turf · 10 entered. Our model's top pick, Coaches Meeting, is 15% to win (morning line implies 10%). Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

Top pick #5 Coaches Meeting ML — Fair 6-1 Model #1 ▲ Up +5

Jockey S. Villacres · Trainer K. Neilson · 22 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	MID	2⅛m T	Moc30000	7th/10 -5L	—	—	b L	Outrun
10/4	FX	2⅛m T	MCL 16k	4th/10 -26L	—	—	b L	Stretch gains
7/30	CNL	2¼m T	MSW	6th/10 -8½L	—	10-1	b L	Lacked rally

Case: Last out 7th/10 -5L in the Moc30000 at MID. K. Neilson / S. Villacres.

Knock: Never raced at Unionville. No Brisnet figures for the last 3 starts.

Contender #8 One Last Bid ML — Fair 7-1 Model #2 ▼▼ Big drop -8

Jockey M. Bowman · Trainer T. McKenna · 125 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
6/29	CNL	2¼m T	Handicap	8th/9 -26L	—	16-1	L	Failed to menace
5/16	MAL	2⅛m T	Moc16000	Won/6	—	—	L	Driven out
8/5	PID	6f D	Clm 6k n3l	5th/5 -7½L	58	13-1	b L	Urged turn; flattened

Case: Last out 8th/9 -26L in the Handicap at CNL. Last Brisnet figures 58. T. McKenna / M. Bowman.

Knock: Off 125 days. Never raced at Unionville.

Use #10 Lomax ML — Fair 8-1 Model #3 ► Steady ≡ Steady 67–76 Last out won in the Clm5000bc at TIM. Last Brisnet figures 72-69-67. T. Wyatt / J. Wyatt. Knock: Never raced this far (longest 1⅛m). Never raced at Unionville.

Jockey J. Wyatt · Trainer T. Wyatt · 57 days off

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/5	TIM	1m D	Clm 5k bc	Won/5 by 3	72	5.2-1	b L	3-4wd far turn;driving
8/29	TIM	1m D	Clm 5k n2l	Won/5 by 2	69	1.5-1	b L	Off duel;shift 4w;drvg
8/7	CNL	1m T	Clm 16k n2l	4th/9 -5L	67	23-1	b L	3w;5w1/4;angld in 1/16

Narrowing the field: A #3, #5, #8 · B #4, #9, #10 · ? #1, #2, #6, #7 (no figures yet, never thrown out)

R3 UNI · Allowance · $1 purse

3:00 PM ET · 1 3/8 Miles Turf · $1 · 10 runners3:00 PM · 11f Turf · 10 runners

Upcoming $1 · Allowance · $1 purse

Card modelCard model Wide openFormLast 3 figsTier · angles

1MantisN. Prendergast · E. VossPrendergast · Voss?—Fair 12-18%——?
Card model 8% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #8 · Tier ?
Jockey Niall Prendergast · Trainer Elizabeth Voss 19% career
Also today · Jockey R4: Ted's Hotel · Trainer R4: Ted's Hotel
Runs for $1 today after a $50,000 race last time. Last out was 4th, 13 lengths behind the winner, in a 6-horse race at MID.
EVEN PACE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/10 MID 2⅛m T WilOKeeMem50k 4th/6 -13L — — Outrun to final fence
2Leaping LouisH. Holm · K. NeilsonHolm · Neilson?—Fair 10-19%——?
Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #7 · Tier ?
Jockey Hunter Holm 14% career · Trainer Kathy Neilson 22% career
Also today · Jockey R4: Sea Ice · Trainer R1: Lightning Ridge, R2: Withoutmoreado, this race: Marine Patrol, this race: Coaches Meeting +3 more
Cuts back from 2 1/8 miles to 1 3/8 miles. Was running in maiden; today's allowance is an easier level on paper.
EVEN PACE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/4 FX 2⅛m T MCL 16k DNF — — L Tired; pulled up
5/16 MAL 2⅛m T Moc16000 DNF — — Forced off course
11/1 MTP 2⅜m T MCL 16k 7th/10 -20L — — Lost momentum
3TransactionalC. Keil · L. SmithKeil · SmithA50 57 59▼▼-10—Fair 10-110%▼▼ Big drop -1050 57 59A
Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -10 · Last 3 figs 50 57 59
Jockey Catie Keil 14% career · Trainer Lawrence M Smith 32% career
Also today · Jockey R4: Billy White Shoes · Trainer R4: Billy White Shoes
Trending the wrong way on speed, 59 to 57 to 50. Turns back in 8 days.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one. (early-speed points: 8)
WORKS LIGHT Few works lately, 0 works in 30d and the last 63 days ago
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/24 GRM -17f T Moc30000 DNF — 13-1 L Outrun; pulled up
10/10 MID 2⅛m T Moc30000 8th/9 -24L — — L Dropped back
9/11 LRL 5½f T OC 35k 7th/7 -9½L 50 48-1 b L No front shoes;weaknd

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/10	MID	2⅛m T	WilOKeeMem50k	4th/6 -13L	—	—		Outrun to final fence

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/4	FX	2⅛m T	MCL 16k	DNF	—	—	L	Tired; pulled up
5/16	MAL	2⅛m T	Moc16000	DNF	—	—		Forced off course
11/1	MTP	2⅜m T	MCL 16k	7th/10 -20L	—	—		Lost momentum

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
10/24	GRM	-17f T	Moc30000	DNF	—	13-1	L	Outrun; pulled up
10/10	MID	2⅛m T	Moc30000	8th/9 -24L	—	—	L	Dropped back
9/11	LRL	5½f T	OC 35k	7th/7 -9½L	50	48-1	b L	No front shoes;weaknd

4Marine PatrolB. Sullivan · K. NeilsonSullivan · NeilsonB48 47 50▲+4—Fair 10-19%▲ Up +448 47 50B

Card model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▲ Up +4 · Last 3 figs 48 47 50

Jockey Ben Sullivan 14% career · Trainer Kathy Neilson 22% career

Also today · Jockey R4: Rebel Ridge · Trainer R1: Lightning Ridge, R2: Withoutmoreado, this race: Leaping Louis, this race: Coaches Meeting +3 more

180D+ LAYOFF

Freshened 236 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look. Changes barns, from Pedro Mercedes to Kathy Neilson.

EVEN PACE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.

WORKS SHARP Fastest work of the morning on Oct 12 (4F in :49.80), 0 works in 30d

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
3/10	PRX	1 1/16 D	Clm 7k n3l	7th/7 -15L	48	80-1	b L	2w; outrun
11/18	PRX	1 1/16 D	Clm 7k n4l	6th/7 -16L	47	94-1	b L	4w early; outrun
11/1	PRX	7f D	Clm 7k n4l	5th/5 -21L	50	47-1	b L	Trailed; lost contact

5Coaches MeetingS. Villacres · K. NeilsonVillacres · NeilsonA74 79 63▲+5—Fair 6-115%▲ Up +574 79 63A1
Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #1 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +5 · Last 3 figs 74 79 63
Jockey Sofia Villacres · Trainer Kathy Neilson 22% career
Also today · Trainer R1: Lightning Ridge, R2: Withoutmoreado, this race: Leaping Louis, this race: Marine Patrol +3 more
CLASS UP★ FASTEST WORK
Purse drops from $30,000 to $1 against its last start. Back to 1 3/8 miles off a 2 1/8 miles race.
EVEN PACE Balanced pace: trip and tactical speed decide it, with no strong setup advantage.
WORKS SHARP 4f in :49.40 on Dec 30 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
10/10 MID 2⅛m T Moc30000 7th/10 -5L — — b L Outrun
10/4 FX 2⅛m T MCL 16k 4th/10 -26L — — b L Stretch gains
7/30 CNL 2¼m T MSW 6th/10 -8½L — 10-1 b L Lacked rally
6Northern SaintB. Owings · M. BeecherOwings · Beecher?—Fair 12-17%—Debut?
Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #9 · Tier ?
Jockey Brett Owings 12% career · Trainer Mark Beecher 25% career
Also today · Jockey R1: Hero's Return · Trainer R1: Old Style Humor, R1: Hero's Return, R2: Master Seville
First career start, by Catholic Boy out of Dream Exchange.
EVEN PACE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.
Last three races
First start. By Catholic Boy out of Dream Exchange (Exchange Rate)
Trainer M. Beecher: 1st-time starters: 14% wins, 57% in the money (7 starts)
Jockey B. Owings in turf: 0 wins from 10 (0%)
No published workouts.
7Bermuda HighK. McGrath · L. YoungMcGrath · Young?—Fair 15-16%—Debut?
Card model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #10 · Tier ?
Jockey Kieran McGrath · Trainer Leslie F Young 30% career
Also today · Trainer R2: The Butler Yates, R2: Uco Valley
Unraced; this barn has 39 first-time starters on record and wins 18% of them. Debut for this R H F Golden Globe horse, whose dam is Penella.
EVEN PACE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.
WORKS LIGHT Thin work schedule next to this field: 0 works in 30d, last one 803d ago
Last three races
First start. By R H F Golden Globe out of Penella (Bluegrass Cat)
Trainer L. Young: 1st-time starters: 18% wins, 51% in the money (39 starts)
Work Trk Dist Time How Rank
8/20 FAI 5f 1:02.00 breezing 5/8
8/12 FAI 5f 1:02.40 breezing 16/17
8/4 FAI 4f :49.00 breezing 5/8
7/27 FAI 4f :49.00 breezing 6/29
7/20 FAI 4f :49.80 breezing 9/15
8One Last BidM. Bowman · T. McKennaBowman · McKennaA58 57 73▼▼-8—Fair 7-113%▼▼ Big drop -858 57 73A2
Card model 13% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Last 3 figs 58 57 73
Jockey Melanie Bowman 28% career · Trainer Todd McKenna
Also today · Trainer R1: Pavoni, R2: Bob's Bar, R4: Box Office Warrior
60D LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK
Beaten 26 lengths for 8th in a 9-horse handicap race at CNL. 125 days since the last start, so it needs the works to say it's ready.
EVEN PACE The shape is neutral for this one.
WORKS SHARP 4f in :48.60 on Jun 9 was the best time at that distance that morning; 0 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
6/29 CNL 2¼m T Handicap 8th/9 -26L — 16-1 L Failed to menace
5/16 MAL 2⅛m T Moc16000 Won/6 — — L Driven out
8/5 PID 6f D Clm 6k n3l 5th/5 -7½L 58 13-1 b L Urged turn; flattened
9GrahamzillaE. Scully · R. HendriksScully · HendriksB60 61—Fair 10-110%—60 61B
Card model 10% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #5 · Tier B · Last 3 figs 60 61
Jockey Elizabeth Scully 13% career · Trainer Richard J Hendriks 26% career
Also today · Jockey R2: Bob's Bar
180D+ LAYOFF★ FASTEST WORK
Returns from a 183-day break. Posted the fastest 11F work of the morning on Nov 2, in 2:25.80.
EVEN PACE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.
WORKS SHARP Posted the morning's best 11F on Nov 2; 0 works in 30d
Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip
5/2 GRM 2⅛m T SpdySmwkMm50k 4th/7 -3L — 6.4-1 L Late gain
4/11 BLU 2m T Moc16000 Won/7 by hd — — L Up in final strides
3/21 AIK 2⅛m T Moc20000 2nd/8 -2½L — — L Closed strong

Work	Trk	Dist	Time	How	Rank
8/20	FAI	5f	1:02.00	breezing	5/8
8/12	FAI	5f	1:02.40	breezing	16/17
8/4	FAI	4f	:49.00	breezing	5/8
7/27	FAI	4f	:49.00	breezing	6/29
7/20	FAI	4f	:49.80	breezing	9/15

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
5/2	GRM	2⅛m T	SpdySmwkMm50k	4th/7 -3L	—	6.4-1	L	Late gain
4/11	BLU	2m T	Moc16000	Won/7 by hd	—	—	L	Up in final strides
3/21	AIK	2⅛m T	Moc20000	2nd/8 -2½L	—	—	L	Closed strong

10LomaxJ. Wyatt · T. WyattWyatt · WyattB72 69 67►≡—Fair 8-112%► Steady72 69 67 ≡B3

Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #3 · Tier B · Form ► Steady · ≡ Steady figures 67–76 · Last 3 figs 72 69 67

Jockey James Wyatt 14% career · Trainer Todd J Wyatt 16% career

Also today · Jockey R4: Day And Age · Trainer R4: Day And Age

WON LAST

Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf. Best Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 76, with 74 next best.

EVEN PACE No pace advantage either way, so this comes down to trip and class.

WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 7d ago

Last three races

Date	Trk	Dist	Class	Finish	Fig	Odds	Eq	Trip
9/5	TIM	1m D	Clm 5k bc	Won/5 by 3	72	5.2-1	b L	3-4wd far turn;driving
8/29	TIM	1m D	Clm 5k n2l	Won/5 by 2	69	1.5-1	b L	Off duel;shift 4w;drvg
8/7	CNL	1m T	Clm 16k n2l	4th/9 -5L	67	23-1	b L	3w;5w1/4;angld in 1/16

▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.

How to read these marks

1 2 3: Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
Win %, Fair: The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
Tier A B C ?: The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
71 60 72: Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼: Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
≡ ↕: ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
★: Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
▲ ▼ chips: Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.

These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.

Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story

UNI · RACE 3

UPCOMING

Allowance · $1 purse

Field

10 runners

Purse

Post

3:00 PM ET

Pace

Tactical / Honest

Card model top pick

#5 · 15%

Allowance, for 3-year-olds and up.

Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.

The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.

Our number tops on #5 Coaches Meeting (a presser/stalker, M/L —). Backup is #8 One Last Bid at —. Use #10 Lomax in exotic structures.

What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.

At a glance: model vs the morning line

At a glance

Market favourite #5 COACHES MEETING () — our number agrees.
#5 COACHES MEETING — our top number on the card, a price play — we're at 12.3%, the board 0.0%.
#8 ONE LAST BID — our #2 number, a price play — we're at 10.7%, the board 0.0%.
#10 LOMAX — our #3 number, a price play — we're at 10.6%, the board 0.0%.

Model vs the morning line · analysis, not advice

Longshot the model rates above its line: #5 COACHES MEETING () — our fair 12.3% is above the morning line's 0.0%; needs the trip to fall right.

Pacewho goes to the front

Pace

Tactical / Honest. Balanced shape: 1-2 speed, supporting pressers, closers in play. Trip wins out.

Likely leader: #3 Transactional.

Lead

3Transactional

Press

none

Stalk

5Coaches Meeting

10Lomax688One Last Bid

No style yet

4Marine Patrol641Mantis2Leaping Louis6Northern Saint7Bermuda High9Grahamzilla

Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.

Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse

Closing Kick · late-pace figure

Lomax

One Last Bid

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