| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/1 | MTP | 2⅜m T | MSW | DNF | — | — | L | Trailed; tired and PU |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/11 | CNL | 2¼m T | Handicap | Won/5 by 2½ | — | 1.5-1 | L | Split turn;closed ins |
| 8/30 | FAI | -13f T | rAlw25000nc | Won/8 | 86 | 9.3-1 | L | Drew off in stretch |
| 4/20 | MOX | 2¼m T | MCL 20k | Won/10 | — | — | L | Drew off handily |
| Date | Trk | Dist | Class | Finish | Fig | Odds | Eq | Trip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/24 | PID | 1m D | Clm 15k bc | 5th/6 -3¾L | 66 | 8.4-1 | b L | Slow early; no bid |
| 7/27 | PID | 1 1/16 D | Clm 12k n2l | Won/7 by 3 | 79 | 3.4-1 | b L | Stdy adv;up in time |
| 7/1 | PEN | 1 1/16 T | OC 16k | 5th/7 -5½L | 76 | 3.7-1 | b L | 3-deep;circld 4w;empty |
1Rebel RidgeB. Sullivan · K. NeilsonSullivan · Neilson?—Fair 5-116%
——?1Card model 16% · Fair odds 5-1 · Our #1 · Tier ?
Also today · Jockey R3: Marine Patrol · Trainer R1: Lightning Ridge, R2: Withoutmoreado, R3: Leaping Louis, R3: Marine Patrol +3 more180D+ LAYOFFBack after 365 days away; fitness is the question and the works are the evidence. Drops from maiden special weight to allowance.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 11/1 MTP 2⅜m T MSW DNF — — L Trailed; tired and PU 2Princess Clemmie▲S. Cundith · L. BoucherCundith · BoucherB61 71 65▼-7—Fair 10-19%
▼ Down -761 71 65B▲ Lone speed on early paceCard model 9% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #6 · Tier B · Form ▼ Down -7 · Last 3 figs 61 71 65
▲ Lone speed on early paceClass relief: $7,500 claiming last time, allowance today. Last out was 6th, 12 lengths behind the winner, in a 7-horse $7,500 claiming race at MNR.
PACE CHALLENGE Leads into real pressure, so it has to earn the front and then hold it. (early-speed points: 1)WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 127d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/25 MNR 7f T Clm 7k b 6th/7 -12L 61 3.6-1 b Never involved 9/29 MNR 1m T Alw b 4th/8 -8L 71 8.9-1 b Evenly; lacked more 9/16 DEL 1 1/16 T Clm 10k 7th/9 -6½L 65 7.5-1 b L Rail bid;came up empty 3Billy White ShoesC. Keil · L. SmithKeil · SmithA66 79 76▼▼-8—Fair 7-112%
▼▼ Big drop -866 79 76A3Card model 12% · Fair odds 7-1 · Our #3 · Tier A · Form ▼▼ Big drop -8 · Last 3 figs 66 79 76
60D LAYOFFLawrence M Smith takes over the training from Brandon L Kulp. Last race was on the dirt; today it runs on the turf.
EVEN PACE Honest early fractions give a closer a fair shot late.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 10d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 8/24 PID 1m D Clm 15k bc 5th/6 -3¾L 66 8.4-1 b L Slow early; no bid 7/27 PID 1 1/16 D Clm 12k n2l Won/7 by 3 79 3.4-1 b L Stdy adv;up in time 7/1 PEN 1 1/16 T OC 16k 5th/7 -5½L 76 3.7-1 b L 3-deep;circld 4w;empty 4Day and AgeJ. Wyatt · T. WyattWyatt · WyattA84 78 81▲+3—Fair 8-112%
▲ Up +384 78 81ACard model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #4 · Tier A · Form ▲ Up +3 · Last 3 figs 84 78 81
Cuts back from 2 1/8 miles to 1 3/8 miles. Beaten 2 lengths for 2nd in a 10-horse race at MID.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 168d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 MID 2⅛m T Moc30000 2nd/10 -2L — — L Closed; up for second 9/26 SHW 2m T MSW 6th/10 -7½L — — b L Faded final turn 8/13 CNL 2¼m T MSW 6th/10 -15L — 5.3-1 L Chased; tired 5Box Office WarriorC. O'Brien · T. McKennaO'Brien · McKennaA86 69 79▲▲+10—Fair 6-115%
▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best86 69 79A2Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #2 · Tier A · Form ▲▲ Big jump +10 · career best · Last 3 figs 86 69 79
180D+ LAYOFFWON LASTBest Brisnet figure in the field over its last five: 86, with 84 next best. 416 days since the last start, so it needs the works to say it's ready.
PACE HELPS The pocket behind pressure is the useful spot, and this type fits it.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 640d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 9/11 CNL 2¼m T Handicap Won/5 by 2½ — 1.5-1 L Split turn;closed ins 8/30 FAI -13f T rAlw25000nc Won/8 86 9.3-1 L Drew off in stretch 4/20 MOX 2¼m T MCL 20k Won/10 — — L Drew off handily 6Lucky PrinceC. Secor · J. DaviesSecor · DaviesB72 51 65▲▲+13—Fair 10-18%
▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best72 51 65BCard model 8% · Fair odds 10-1 · Our #7 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · Last 3 figs 72 51 65
A big drop, maiden special weight to allowance, and worth asking why. Shortens up to 1 3/8 miles after going 3 miles.
PACE HELPS Sits just off the speed with pace in front to run at.WORKS Steady, unremarkable work pattern: 0 works in 30d, last 507d backLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 GV 3m T MSW DNF — — L Fell; lost jockey 6/21 LRL -17f T MSW 6th/10 -12L — 11-1 L Pace; weakened 5/16 MAL 2⅛m T Moc16000 2nd/7 -½L — — L Game finish 7Sea IceH. Holm · K. NeilsonHolm · Neilson?—Fair 12-17%
—Debut?Card model 7% · Fair odds 12-1 · Our #8 · Tier ?
Also today · Jockey R3: Leaping Louis · Trainer R1: Lightning Ridge, R2: Withoutmoreado, R3: Leaping Louis, R3: Marine Patrol +3 moreDebut for this Uncle Mo gelding, whose dam is Discern.
PACE CHALLENGE Running style isn't established yet, so the pace read is a blank for this one.Last three races
First start. By Uncle Mo out of Discern (Tapit)Trainer K. Neilson: 1st-time starters: 0% wins, 30% in the money (10 starts)Jockey H. Holm in turf: 0 wins from 6 (0%)No published workouts.8JohnjackjimjayeC. Walsh · W. MeisterWalsh · MeisterB61 50 50▲▲+13—Fair 15-16%
▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best61 50 50BCard model 6% · Fair odds 15-1 · Our #9 · Tier B · Form ▲▲ Big jump +13 · career best · Last 3 figs 61 50 50
180D+ LAYOFFComes off a dirt start and tries the turf here. Freshened 610 days, longer than anything else in the field. Watch how its recent works look.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 50d ago)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 3/1 LRL 1 1/16 D MCL 12k 6th/7 -9½L 61 17-1 L Hesitate start;bmp 1/4 2/14 LRL 1m D MCL 12k 5th/7 -11L 50 21-1 b L Pinched start;5w turn 1/26 LRL 6f D MCL 12k 7th/9 -9L 50 16-1 b L Slow start; wide turn 9Ted's HotelN. Prendergast · E. VossPrendergast · Voss?—Fair 20-15%
—Debut?Card model 5% · Fair odds 20-1 · Our #10 · Tier ?
Makes his first start with no form to go on, only the Karakontie and Dawn Wall breeding.
PACE CHALLENGE Style isn't established yet, so how it fits this shape is open.WORKS SHARP One of the busier work schedules here: 1 work in 30d, last 28d agoLast three races
First start. By Karakontie out of Dawn Wall (Not For Love)Trainer E. Voss: 1st-time starters: 0% wins, 0% in the money (5 starts)Jockey N. Prendergast in turf: 1 wins from 17 (6%)Work Trk Dist Time How Rank 10/4 FX 1½m 3:07.60 9/9 10RuthenianO. Fisher · K. NeilsonFisher · Neilson?—Fair 8-110%
——?Card model 10% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier ?
Also today · Trainer R1: Lightning Ridge, R2: Withoutmoreado, R3: Leaping Louis, R3: Marine Patrol +3 moreFinished 4th in an 8-horse allowance race at GV, beaten 17 lengths. Sheds 10 pounds from its last start.
PACE HELPS Stalks an honestly pressed pace from a good spot.WORKS Average work schedule for this field (0 works in 30d, last 872d ago)Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 GV 3m T Alw b 4th/8 -17L — — L Passed tired rivals 5/25 FAI 3m T MSW DNF — 13-1 L No response;walk off 5/9 WIL 3m T MSW 4th/9 — — Weakened stretch
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: fast and contested (4 early types). Helps stalkers and closers.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
UNI · RACE 4
UPCOMINGAllowance · $1 purse
Allowance, for 3-year-olds and up.
Allowance race — a step above claiming. No horses are for sale; written conditions limit the field to horses of similar experience.
The shape is the story here: there's little established early speed, so a tactical horse can control soft fractions up front and prove hard to run down.
Our number tops on #1 Rebel Ridge (a tactical type, M/L —). Backup is #5 Box Office Warrior at —. Use #3 Billy White Shoes in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #1 REBEL RIDGE () — our number agrees.
- #1 REBEL RIDGE — our top number on the card, a price play — we're at 12.4%, the board 0.0%.
- #5 BOX OFFICE WARRIOR — our #2 number, a price play — we're at 12.1%, the board 0.0%.
- #3 BILLY WHITE SHOES — our #3 number, a price play — we're at 10.7%, the board 0.0%.
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #1 REBEL RIDGE () — our fair 12.4% is above the morning line's 0.0%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pressed Pace. Speed under pressure from multiple pressers. Likely honest pace, slight closer benefit.
Likely leader: #2 Princess Clemmie; pressure from #4 Day And Age, #6 Lucky Prince; the shape helps #4 Day And Age, #5 Box Office Warrior, #6 Lucky Prince; and works against #1 Rebel Ridge, #2 Princess Clemmie, #7 Sea Ice.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Early Pace · E1 figure · front runners
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta