1WithoutmoreadoRan 3rdE. Poretz · K. NeilsonPoretz · Neilson?—Fair 7-222%
——?3Card model 22% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #3 · Tier ?
Also today · Jockey R1: Lightning Ridge · Trainer R1: Lightning Ridge, R3: Leaping Louis, R3: Marine Patrol, R3: Coaches Meeting +3 moreRuns for $50,000 after a $25,000 race last out. 2nd last time, 2 lengths back, in a field of 4.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.WORKS Routine prep: 0 works in 30d, last 2611d agoLast three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 GV 3½m T GVHuntCup25k 2nd/4 -2L — — L Followed; 2nd best 5/9 WIL 3½m T WilSteeplc35k 2nd/7 -7L — — L Rallied; ran on well 4/25 GLN 4m T MdHuntCup100k DNF — — L Fell at 6th fence 2The Butler YatesRan 4thF. Procter · L. YoungProcter · Young?—Fair 6-115%
——?Card model 15% · Fair odds 6-1 · Our #4 · Tier ?
A longer trip: 3 1/2 miles last out, 4 miles today. Purse goes from $25,000 to $50,000, a step up.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 GV 3½m T GVHuntCup25k 4th/4 -9½L — — L Never fired 4/25 GLN 4m T MdHuntCup100k 6th/9 -14L — — L Stalked; tired 4/11 MON 3m T MyLdysManr50k 4th/6 -6½L — — L Weakened stretch 3Master SevilleRan 2ndG. Watters · M. BeecherWatters · Beecher?—Fair 5-228%
——?1Card model 28% · Fair odds 5-2 · Our #1 · Tier ?
60D LAYOFF176 days since the last start, the longest layoff in here, so it needs the works to say it's ready. Goes 4 miles after running 3 1/2 miles last time.
PACE CHALLENGE No style on record, so the setup says little about it.Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 5/9 WIL 3½m T WilSteeplc35k 3rd/7 -9½L — — L Passed tired ones 4/18 GN 3¼m T GrndNtlTmb50k 3rd/7 -6½L — — L Stayed on 11/2 UNI 4m T PennHntCup35k Won/8 — — L Rallied; driving 4Bob's BarE. Scully · T. McKennaScully · McKenna?—12%
——?Card model 12% · Fair odds 8-1 · Our #5 · Tier ?
Was 6th of 7 at the first call last time. Stretches out from 3 1/4 miles to 4 miles.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/10 MID 3¼m T NtnlSprtCp50k DNF — — L Lost rider 9/26 SHW 3⅛m T Alw b 4th/8 -9½L — — L Weakened final fence 5/9 PW 3m T Alw b DNF — — L Led; faded; pulled up 5Uco ValleyRan 1stF. Procter · L. YoungProcter · Young?—Fair 7-224%
——?2Card model 24% · Fair odds 7-2 · Our #2 · Tier ?
Also today · Jockey this race: The Butler Yates · Trainer this race: The Butler Yates, R3: Bermuda HighLast out was 3rd, 2 lengths behind the winner, in a 4-horse race at GRM. Turns back in 8 days.
PACE CHALLENGE No running style on file yet, so the pace shape can't be applied to it.Last three races
Date Trk Dist Class Finish Fig Odds Eq Trip 10/24 GRM 3½m T InternGold50k 3rd/4 -2L — 3.5-1 L Bid; out finished 10/10 MID 3¼m T NtnlSprtCp50k 3rd/7 -4L — — L Stayed on 5/9 WIL 3½m T WilSteeplc35k 4th/7 -12L — — L Tired in stretch
▲ / ▼ angle for / against · ★ best figure at the trip · LS longshot read · 1 2 3 = our top three · A B C tiers · ▲ ► ▼ form · ≡ ↕ steady / up-and-down. Tap a row for its notes, a name for the horse's page. Analysis only. Pace: hard to project, too many first-time starters.
How to read these marks
- 1 2 3
- Our top three by the card model's win chance. Tap “Our order” to sort by it.
- Win %, Fair
- The card model's chance to win, and the odds that chance works out to with no takeout. Fair is green when the model rates the horse above its morning line (the line scaled to add up to 100%).
- Tier A B C ?
- The field ranked on recent speed figures and the morning line together: A = top three, B = next three, C = the rest, ? = no figures yet.
- 71 60 72
- Last three speed figures, newest first. “@trip 75” = best figure at today's distance (within 30 yards) on this surface.
- ▲▲ ▲ ► ▼ ▼▼
- Form: last figure against the average of the three before it. ▲ = up 3 or more, ▲▲ = up 8 or more, ► = within 3, ▼ / ▼▼ = down. The number is the difference.
- ≡ ↕
- ≡ steady: the last four figures sit close together. ↕ up-and-down: they swing widely.
- ★
- Best figure in the field at today's distance and surface, from two or more tries, not tied. When that horse isn't in our top three it gets a “Distance horse” note above the field.
- ▲ ▼ chips
- Handicapping angles for or against the horse. LS = longshot read: 8-1 or more on the morning line and the model rates it higher than that line.
These marks describe the past performances. None of them is proven to beat the odds: in our test of 100 handicapping angles, nothing did better than the final odds, and the morning-line favourite wins more races than our top-ranked horse. Read them as notes, not as a reason to bet.
● Official result
$2 payoffs · our pre-race read is unchanged below
Our top pick, #3 Master Seville, finished 2nd.
Race conditions and our readpace, conditions, story
UNI · RACE 2
OFFICIALPenn Hnt Cup
Stakes, for 5-year-olds and up.
Stakes race — the top class. Owners pay entry/nomination fees that build the purse, which draws the best horses available.
● Track record at 4 Miles: 453.6
The shape is the story here: the early pace looks honest rather than contested — expect a fairly run race where class and trip decide it, not pace collapse.
Our number tops on #3 Master Seville (a tactical type, M/L —). It hit the board last time and stays in form. Backup is #5 Uco Valley at —. Use #1 Withoutmoreado in exotic structures.
What would change our mind: a key scratch that reshapes the early pace, a sharp turf-to-dirt or surface switch off the rail, or live money showing up on a horse the board had dismissed. Watch the tote late.
● OUTCOME · 2ND
Top pick Master Seville ran 2nd · Uco Valley (ire) won (not in our top 5)
What worked
- ✓ Top pick in the money (2nd)
What didn't
- ✗ Winner was outside our top 3 (not in our top 5)
- ✗ Our top 3 finished 2nd, —, —
TBredIQ ranking → finish
| #1 | #3 MASTER SEVILLE | 2nd |
| #2 | #5 UCO VALLEY | — |
| #3 | #1 WITHOUTMOREADO | — |
| #4 | #2 THE BUTLER YATES | — |
| #5 | #4 BOB'S BAR | — |
Actual finish
| 1st | Uco Valley (IRE) | unranked |
| 2nd | #3 Master Seville | our #1 |
| 3rd | Withoutmoreado (IRE) | unranked |
| 4th | The Butler Yates (IRE) | unranked |
At a glance: model vs the morning line
At a glance
- Market favourite #3 MASTER SEVILLE () — our number agrees.
- #3 MASTER SEVILLE — our top number on the card, a price play — we're at 22.8%, the board 0.0%.
- #5 UCO VALLEY — our #2 number, a price play — we're at 21.1%, the board 0.0%.
- #1 WITHOUTMOREADO — our #3 number, a price play — we're at 20.9%, the board 0.0%.
Model vs the morning line
- Longshot the model rates above its line: #3 MASTER SEVILLE () — our fair 22.8% is above the morning line's 0.0%; needs the trip to fall right.
Pacewho goes to the front
Pace
Pace Vacuum. No real early speed. Whoever shows up first is likely uncontested. Pressers benefit.
and works against #1 Withoutmoreado, #2 The Butler Yates, #3 Master Seville.
Number = last-race early-pace figure. Green border = the shape helps; red = it works against.
Early speed and closing figures, horse by horse
Closing Kick · late-pace figure
Bet types offeredwager menu
Bet types
Wagers offered on this race.
BET OPTIONS
WinPlaceShowExactaTrifectaSuperfecta